Rank History
| Year | Team | Position | Team Rank | OFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | CLE | LHP | 39 | 40 |
Grades Update: Nov 2020
| OFP | Role | FB | SL | Ctr/Cmd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 40 | 50 | 55 | 60/55 |
Nov 2020 Report
Evaluator: Justin Lada
Age: 24 yr
Height: 6-1
Weight: 175 lbs
Hits/Throws: L/L
Acquired: 2017 Draft - Round 15
RuleV: On 40-man
Physical Description: Modest, undersized relief build. Small frame, lean but athletic. Standard, non-physical relief body type that is dependent on deception, command rather than physical, loud tools, and raw stuff.
Delivery & Mechanics: Stands mostly over the middle of the rubber, which isn't standard for a lot of relievers, mainly left-handed relievers. Low effort delivery. Moderate leg kick and back tilt. Works from the stretch. Gets into his lower half well. Shows good body control. Hides the ball behind his back leg, giving him some added deception. Solid extension despite shorter legs. Good hip/shoulder separation and gets his shoulders square to the plate, ready to bring his arm through his three-quarter arm slot.
Fastball: 89-92 and tops out at 93. Despite its well below-average velocity, it comes in at around and above 2400 RPM, which is that of a fastball that typically sits 95-96. It's a unique juxtaposition. With above-average command and its spin, this pitch is an average offering for Nelson despite the fact that it has fringe-average velocity. The spin gives it enough vertical movement to play above its velocity. Grade: 50
Slider: Runs 81-82 and tops out at 83. 10-4 shape. Another low velocity offering by Nelson that also comes in at well above average spin rates (2846 RPM). It almost looks like a very shallow-depth curveball, or that it's going to look like a changeup, but has late, vertical drop and some tilt. Splitting the difference between lack of traditional velo, good command, and a high spin rate (without context of spin efficiency) that it's at least an average offering, maybe more. Grade: 55
Control and Command: Avoids walks and stays in the strike zone at exceptional rates. Works good up in the zone with the fastball, and low in the zone with the slider. He can manipulate the slider to have a little more sweep and commands both the same. He's comfortable locating either of his pitches inside, and outside, to right handed or left handed hitters. Control: 60 | Command: 55
Overall: Nelson is a very unique reliever. He's not physical and doesn't have traditionally loud, raw stuff. He's also more than a command LOOGY (although he would be devastating in that role, if it still existed). The spin on his fastball and command allow it to play above its middling velocity, especially because it works well up in the zone and he commands it there well, too. The slider tunnels very well off of the fastball at nearly the same release point plus his arm slot. It also has premium spin despite lower than average velocities. The radar gun probably doesn't match his minor league results if you are just scouting the stat line. But hitters have a hard time making quality contact against his slider, if at all. He'll probably need to lean heavy on that offering to be a successful reliever and he is going to need every ounce of his above-average command to make it work. But he's shown that so far in the minors enough to believe he's going to make a good career in a middle relief role at the least at the moment.
OFP: 40
Role: 40 - Low Leverage Reliever
Risk: Low
