Rank History
| Year | Team | Position | Team Rank | OFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | HOU | RHP | 7 | 45 |
Grades Update: Jan 2021
| OFP | Role | FB | CB | SL | CH | Cont/Cmd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 40 | 55 | 45 | 55 | 40 | 50/45 |
Jan 2021 Report
Evaluator: Geoff Pontes
Age: 25 yr
Height: 6-1
Weight: 154 lbs
Hits/Throws: R/R
Acquired: 2018 Draft, Round 13
RuleV: 2021
Physical Description: Long lanky build makes him look taller than his listed 6-1. Long levers and loose wiry frame. Some room to add more strength but it's fairly unlikely he adds more than 5-10 pounds. Similar build to former Cleveland and Philadelphia lefty Cliff Lee.
Delivery & Mechanics: Starts operation from a slight side step on the first base side of the rubber. High leg lift mechanism closes off front side, drives from deep bend in back leg, getting over front side at an upright position, with moderate bend in this leg block. Higher three quarters release that gets fairly vertical. Repeatable motion with minimal violence at the point of delivery.
Fastball: Sits 93-96 mph across multiple innings with run and the ability to play to both sides of the plate. Will elevate with two strikes as a put away pitch. Controls the fastball well to his armside but lacks command to the his glove side particularly when trying to locate in the lower quadrants. Good swing and miss pitch and difficult to barrel. Grade: 55
Curveball: Hard 12-6 curveball in the 80s, more vertical action than slider, used mostly off the plate to lefties. Shows promise as a bat misser due to velocity and distinctly different movement from his slider. Grade: 45
Slider: Hard slider, with heavy drop, will manipulate it and tighten spin. Two plane movement, will show more sweep on his tighter spins. Good velocity in the mid-80s, swing and miss pitch, and a deadly one-two punch with his fastball. Grade: 55
Changeup: Below average pitch, with inconsistent movement. Will show some tumble and fade when he turns it over but not a consistent pronator. Can land for strikes when needed. Grade: 40
Control and Command: Dubin's smooth operation and repeatable arm stroke lend itself to average strike throwing. A rare ability for a pitcher that misses as many bats as Dubin does. He will lose it out of the blue for a few batters, and has a tendency to nibble a little too much and run up his pitch count. It's squarely average control with fringe-average command. Control: 50 | Command: 45
Overall: Another hybrid arm in the Astros system that could fit into a variety of roles with a four pitch mix led by a one-two punch that generates swings and misses at a high rate. Dubin likely best fits as a high leverage bullpen arm with the ability to go multiple innings. There's still hope he can stick as a starter but it's a less efficient starter profile, likely leading to lots of 4-5 innings efforts. Which, might be enough in today's game.
OFP: 45
Role: 40 - Spot Starter or Long Reliever
Risk: Moderate
