Rank History
| Year | Team | Position | Team Rank | OFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | ARI | RHP | 32 | 40 |
Grades Update: Dec 2020
| OFP | Role | FB | SL | CH | Cnt/Cmd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 40 | 60 | 55 | 40 | 50/40 |
Dec 2020 Report
Evaluator: Rhys White
Age: 23 yr
Height: 6-3
Weight: 184 lbs
Hits/Throws: R/R
Acquired: 2019 2nd
RuleV: 2022
Physical Description: Gangly with long arms and legs. Ideal starter height with room to fill out on his frame.
Mechanics: Nelson is straight up with his back leg facing towards the third-base side. He begins his motion by dropping his glove hand and he has a moderate leg kick and stands still for a second before driving towards home plate. He extends his right-arm towards second and his glove arm towards home. He follows through with loose arm action and releases the ball at a high three-quarters slot. He ends up falling slightly towards the first-base side.
Fastball: Nelson in college had a fastball that would reach 98 but upon entering the professional ranks was sitting 93-95. The fastball has an elite movement profile that is best utilized when spotted up in the zone where the fastball rides up. There is no count that Nelson won't use the fastball and he especially likes to blow it past guys for strikeouts. While the fastball has ideal velocity and spin characteristics he lacks command of the offering, which at times causes the fastball to play down. Grade: 60
Slider: His slider comes at you from a high release point has above average vertical movement. Has 1-to-7 movement with plenty of late bite. He generates swings and misses with the slider especially when he can spot it on the outside half of the strike zone to both left-handed and right-handed batters. Grade: 55
Changeup: The changeup is thrown from the same high slot as the other two offerings. The changeup does not have the fade or movement one would expect and he lacks feel for the offering. He tends to overthrow the changeup resulting in the offering looking like a fringe fastball as opposed to a changeup that plays off his exceptional fastball. He tends to throw it low in the zone to avoid being crushed, his lack of feel for the offering and lack of command means it will be thrown into spots where hitters will make loud contact with it. Grade: 40
Control and Command: Nelson does an average job of throwing strikes, but has below-average command. He has shown the ability to fill the zone, but he doesn't know where many of his offerings are going. He did spend his college career split between being a position player and a reliever so there is some hope that the command and control take a tick forward as he focuses on just pitching. Control: 50 | Command: 40
Overall: There are some days that you will watch Nelson and all three offerings are finding the zone and you can tell yourself that he may stick as a starter. However for the most part his inconsistent command of all his offerings leads me to believe he will ultimately end up as a reliever. He has three pitches and when he is spotting the fastball up in the zone it will be a dangerous weapon for him to get guys to swing and miss. He is a good athlete and has been focusing on just pitching for over two years now so there is some upside there. The Diamondbacks will continue to develop him as a starter in hopes the command and changeup can come along, but I ultimately think he could be transitioned to the bullpen where his fastball and slider are better suited.
OFP: 40
Role: 40 - Low Leverage Reliever
Risk: Moderate
