Rank History
| Year | Team | Position | Team Rank | OFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | LAD | RHP | 6 | 50 |
Grades Update: Dec 2020
| OFP | Role | FB | CB | SL | CH | Cnt/Cmd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 50 | 60 | 45 | 50 | 45 | 50/45 |
Dec 2020 Report
Evaluator: Wyatt Kleinberg
Age: 23 yr
Height: 6-1
Weight: 190 lbs
Hits/Throws: R/R
Acquired: 2018 Draft - Round 2, CIN
RuleV: 2021
Physical Description: At 6'1'' 190, Gray falls into the category of short, athletic starting pitchers. Solid flexibility in both the hips and shoulders (groin, scaps, delts). May be able to add a few more lbs, though his current build is probably around where he will end up in the long run.
Delivery & Mechanics: Slow gather into a relatively high leg kick. Rocks his upper body back as he gets into his gather in order to create more potential energy prior to coming downhill. Remains in control of his movements throughout heading into his drive and extension. Opens the front hip as he extends into plant rather than a drop and drive -- could get more from his backside, though he does a very good job of generating power. Showcases a plus extension (5.8 ft) relative to his height, which leads to an elite release height of 5.1 feet. Firm on his plant, allowing the back side to come through very nicely. His naturally whippy arm is aided by solid scap retraction and hip/shoulder separation, leading to consistent and easy low to mid 90s velocity at low stress from a mid to high 3?4 slot. Repeats his delivery very well, does a fantastic job of not tipping his pitches.
Fastball: The four-seam fastball ranges from 91-96, averaging right around 93. Despite the lack of elite velocity, the pitch plays very well up in the zone due to its outstanding average spin rate of 2450 rpm coming from an elite release height of 5.1 feet. This combination leads to the creation of an outstanding vertical approach angle; which just like many other starting pitchers of similar stature, Gray has used to create his MO. The pitch showcases an average amount of vertical break coming in at 15.5 inches, and thanks to its 1:15 axis, does get some real run (11.9 in). The lack of plus plus velocity and vertical break are the only two things holding the fastball back from truly being elite, as his efficiency hovers in the 90+ percent range. All in all it is a plus pitch, and is essentially what makes Gray the pitcher that he is. Grade: 60
Curveball: The curveball might be the most intriguing pitch in Gray's arsenal. Despite possessing a subpar spin rate of 2182 rpm, the slurvy tilt (7:20), and better movement profile (7 inches of IVB, 4.9 horizontal) make the pitch the higher ceiling breaking ball of his two (curve, slider). The reasoning behind this not only lies with the movement, but the fact that he throws a very hard curveball, averaging at 83.5 mph -- only 1.5 mph less than the slider. The velocity helps the pitch tunnel well with his fastball, and with a sub 5 release height, it is unique, and can surprise hitters when thrown optimally. The lack of spin does hamper the pitch in regards to its ability to create elite, sharp bite, though the velocity does help make up for the spin related shortcomings. He is still developing the curveball, and thus doesn't have strong feel for the pitch yet. Grade: 45
Slider: Gray's slider is probably his worst overall pitch from a data perspective. Despite showcasing a solid separation in velocity from his fastball (85 mph), it leaves a lot to be desired in the spin department. Gray's slider spins at a lowly 2200 rpm on average coming from a 10:40 axis -- leading to a movement profile of 3.4 inches of vertical break, and 2.5 horizontal. While these numbers are nothing special by any means, Gray has an outstanding feel for the pitch, which could allow it to play as a plus offering in the big leagues. Grade: 50
Changeup: Gray's changeup may actually be his best pitch when it comes to movement profile -- averaging at 86.8 mph, it is only a slight deviation from his fastball. While this may be concerning for some, it profiles well as it has a tendency to either miss bats, or induce soft contact due to the slight changes in timing for a hitter. The changeup showcases plus run, sitting at 15 inches on average thanks to its high spin rate of 2354 rpm. This solid fading action is also built upon with eight inches of induced vertical break on the offering as well thanks to its more horizontal tilt (2:05 axis). While the data on this pitch is fantastic, Gray's feel for it is holding it back. The change was developed later on in Gray's career, and as a result his timeline to master the pitch is far behind the expected date of his big league debut. Unfortunately, this leads me to believe that the pitch will never reach its full potential, as Gray will need to zone in on how to get big league hitters out -- likely tapping into his more developed offerings far more often than the changeup. Grade: 45
Control and Command: Gray throws a lot of strikes, which is crucial for a guy without an overpowering fastball. While he does occasionally lose curveballs at the bottom of the zone, he is a reliable strike thrower that leans into his fastball in order to get ahead in counts. While he isn't afraid of using them, the lack of feel on the changeup and complete development of the curveball have left them inconsistent at best. Gray's command is a bit of a mixed bag -- overall it plays plus, though it depends on the pitch in which he is throwing. When looking at his fastball, Gray is able to regularly spot it where he needs to, helping the offering play plus, with plus plus potential (pending control mastery). The slider is the best offspeed of his in regards to hitting his spots regularly, with Gray being able to spot it at a similar rate to the fastball. The curveball command is fringe average, and due to a lack of changeup feel, he can struggle to spot it at times. Control: 50 | Command: 45
Overall: While he lacks the traditional build of a starting pitcher, Gray makes up for it with his elite extension, making him a fantastic vertical approach angle based arm. The fastball spin, and ability to spot it up allows the pitch to play plus; the similar control of his slider and plus potential on the hard curveball and changeup leave him with a much higher ceiling than his expected arrival date in the big leagues would allow for. While he could come up in 2021 and be an impact type of starter, an extra year in Triple-A may serve him in the long run, as it would allow for further curveball and changeup mastery.
OFP: 50
Role: 50 - #4 - #5 Backend SP
Risk: Low
