Rodolfo Sanchez RHP (Tampa Bay Rays):
Hailing from Bani, an established Dominican baseball town that has produced multiple major leaguers, teenage right-hander Rodolfo Sanchez hopes to become the next. The 5’10” 165-pound pitcher signed in 2016, without garnering much attention as an unheralded recruit. However, Sanchez has done nothing but make headlines since signing, specifically after arriving in the U.S. in his second professional season.
His success continued through his third season in 2019, his first year above Rookie ball, and one in which he thrived in 13 starts in the New York-Penn League. The youngest member of the Hudson Valley Renegades, Sanchez has consistently outperformed expectations despite facing older competition at every level he’s played thus far and this particular game was no different.
Today, we take a look back at one of Sanchez’s August starts against a very talented Staten Island Yankees lineup filled with top prospects, including 2019 second-round draft pick Josh Smith, third-round pick Jacob Sanford, along with #14 ranked prospect, Ezequiel Duran.
Scouting Review:
8/17/19 - Staten Island Yankees at Hudson Valley Renegades
Game Notes:
Sanchez lasted 4 2/3 innings, striking out six and walking two while allowing two earned runs on three hits. Despite pitching effectively and limiting hard contact, he threw only 67 percent of his pitches for strikes, resulting in a fatigued Sanchez departing in the fifth inning with a pitch count of 86.
Not a single one of the aforementioned top Yankees prospects were able to manage a quality at-bat against Sanchez as he had them all looking uncomfortable at the plate, keeping them off-balanced in the batter’s box and consistently generating soft contact. (See video of Josh Smith’s first at-bat below.)
Looking dominant at times featuring his one-two fastball-curveball combo, which can both flash as plus pitches.
Sanchez currently succeeds on pure talent alone, as he did in this August start against Staten Island. However, you see both his high upside potential and the negative drawbacks that bring upon concerns in this singular start, detailed below. There is a lot to like, but he will need to further develop his secondary offerings to stay in the rotation and avoid a future in the bullpen as he advances through the minors.
Pitch Mix: Fastball, Curveball, Cutter, Changeup
Pitch One: Fastball
Velo: 93-94mph, touching 95mph a few times. Velocity dipped in the fifth inning once fatigue set in.
Movement: Average to above-average movement with an armside run that is used effectively to hitters on both sides of the plate.
Notes: Sanchez’s fastball flashes above average when most effective with an armside run, but movement tapers off once fatigue set in. The consistent mid-90s velocity plays up when properly sequenced with his off-speed offerings. Further development of his fastball could result in it permanently grading out as a plus pitch.
Pitch One Grade: 50+
Pitch Two: Curveball
Velo: 81-83mph
Movement: Average to above-average movement featuring a gloveside run and solid vertical break. Sanchez has a high mound IQ and knows when to throw and how to utilize his curveball movement most effectively as he shows a preference of throwing it outside to LHH and inside on RHH.
Notes: Sanchez's most promising secondary offering, his curveball will flash plus at times but is still not a true strikeout pitch. Its effectiveness is enhanced by his advanced ability to sequence it with his fastball and cutter, both 10mph+ in velocity. He had many hitters fooled due to his command and feel for the pitch. He needs to develop this pitch into a more consistent above-average secondary offering in the future. If he can develop it into a true out pitch, Sanchez would feature a dangerous one-two combo.
Pitch Two Grade: 45/50
Pitch Three: Cutter
Velo: 94-95mph
Movement: Little movement and inconsistent when there is, although it is clear he is still developing this pitch.
Notes: The inconsistent movement is lessened by the fact that the pitch comes in at 95mph, but its only current use is to effectively complement his off-speed offerings. Sanchez provides glimpses of it becoming an average secondary offering if he can develop consistent run or break on it; but he currently cannot control it. If he can develop at least average control of the pitch, it would vastly improve his arsenal from the current one-two fastball-curveball combo and greatly increase his chances of staying in a starting rotation.
Pitch Three Grade: 30/40
Pitch Four: Changeup
Velo: 80-82mph
Movement: Little to no movement, slight vertical break and will sometimes run slightly armside.
Notes: Sanchez is still developing his changeup as well, with this pitch still needing the most work of the group. He has yet to truly harness control of it; thrown the least amount of times of any pitch and yet, the most of any in the dirt. However, he did locate one or two for strikes, showing promise for another complementary off-speed offering relative to his mid-90s velocity fastball and cutter.
Pitch Four Grade: 30
Mechanics:
Set up from the first base side of the rubber, Sanchez delivers with a consistently quick and athletic arm action. From the windup, it’s a mostly repeatable delivery with no true concerns. From the stretch, he will vary his mid-high leg kick, allowing advanced baserunners to gain a step or two advantage. However, there are no major flaws in Sanchez’s mechanics.
Overview:
Rodolfo Sanchez is a teenage right-hander with an advanced feel for the mound; showcasing a high pitching IQ with at least two potential above-average pitches and development of third and fourth secondary offerings. His current arsenal results in an excellent ability to consistently generate soft contact and his fastball velocity will surprise hitters and play up due to his effective off-speed breaking ball.
As for the downside, he finds himself in many high counts due to the lack of control of his cutter and changeup, which leads to early exits from games. Sanchez does not have a true strikeout pitch; even his curveball which will flash as plus, is not thrown with enough effectiveness consistently to strike out hitters. Therefore, full counts and extended at-bats are commonplace for Sanchez. The results are fatigue setting in early and his pitches lose a good amount of movement once this occurs, sometimes becoming a liability left over the plate.
Overall, Sanchez keeps hitters off-balance with his advanced pitch sequencing and feel for the mound at his age. His potentially plus curveball had many hitters fooled, and was oftentimes able to follow it up with his fastball that would play up as overpowering with effective armside run. It’s currently a solid one-two, below-average third, and a fringe-fourth to round out his pitch arsenal. That’s not to undermine his effectiveness, but simply due to lack of consistency with his pitches.
Big Picture:
Further development of Sanchez’s arsenal will be crucial as to where he ends up as a pitcher. Due to his size, many other scouts believe his future lies in the bullpen. However, he has thrived in the rotation thus far and certainly has the talent to fully develop into a useful rotation piece. Regardless, if he cannot develop his cutter and changeup as quality secondary offerings, his future lies in the bullpen anyway with his fastball-curveball combination.
There is still some physical projection left within Sanchez, so his fastball will likely tick up a bit higher on the radar gun still. Sanchez’s superb ability to generate soft contact (see 2019 spray chart below) with his advanced feel for a possible four-pitch mix provides ideal fundamentals in a starting pitching prospect. He has succeeded on pure talent alone, but the Rays player development staff will need to work with him on refinement of his arsenal, particularly his secondary offerings. If proper development and improvement occurs, keep an eye out on Rodolfo Sanchez.
Given the environment there may not be much for him to do to really surprise people in 2020, but a good 2021 could lead to his shooting up our Tampa Bay Rays Top 30.
Overall Grade:
Current: 40
Future: 45+ (45/50 in a relief role)
Dynasty Deep Dive:
Despite impressive statistical lines through three seasons, even with supportive underlying data, watching Rodolfo Sanchez provides a bit of a different story than you’d imagine. He has managed a career 8.6 K/9 and his 2019 8.1 K/9 against competition that averaged two years older than him was again quite impressive.
However, Sanchez truly does lack a strikeout pitch. He managed to strike out 57 in 63.1 innings in 2019, but I fully expect his K/9 to either drastically drop or rise in the coming years depending on whether or not he develops a true strikeout pitch. This will be critical and provide you with your first insights into whether the Rays have succeeded with Sanchez’s development. However, if his K/9 drops, his move to the bullpen becomes even more imminent.
2019 Rodolfo Sanchez Spray Chart (data via MLB.com)
Rodolfo Sanchez’s 2019 spray chart (all balls in-play)