Game Logged Date: 3/6/2020
Teams: Chicago State (WAC) at Auburn (SEC)
Potential First Round 2020 Draftee
Name: Tanner Burns, RHP Decatur, Alabama 6 ft, 200 lbs, DOB: 12/28/98
Game Notes: Burns went seven strong overwhelming a weak Chicago State lineup. Fastball dominant the first time through the order, Burns went right after the Chicago State lineup showing four-quadrant command with the pitch. Setting up hitters early in the count with fastballs at the bottom of the zone before climbing the ladder and attacking with elevated heat when ahead in the count. The second time through the order Burns became much more breaking ball heavy showing his slider early and often to both right-handed and left handed hitters alike. His fastball velocity dipped a little the third time through the order, but he was able to retire 21 of 25 batters faced, 10 via the K, and another eight on groundball outs.
Pitch Mix: Fastball, Slider, Changeup
Pitch One: Fastball
Velo: 89-93 mph touched 94 mph
Movement: The ability to manipulate his fastball gives Burns the ability to throw it with great frequency early in starts. He’ll create excellent angle on his fastball low in the zone, getting late run on the pitch particularly when landed on the inner-half to right-handed hitters. The late run makes it an early strike stealer and swing and miss pitch in one strike counts. He’ll then come back to the fastball at the top of the zone showing rise and backspin. These unique movement profiles allow Burns to attack the zone early and often with heat the first time through the order. When batters do make contact with the fastball it’s often driven into the ground, as only two pitches allowed hard contact on the pitch all night.
Pitch Grade: 55/60
Pitch Two: Slider
Velo: 77-83 mph
Movement: Loopy 11-5 movement, will get late tail at times. The first time through the order the slider was used mostly as an out pitch, alternating between the changeup and slider depending on batter handedness. The second time through the order Burns began to lead with the slider early in the count, landing it for strikes to both parts of the plate and showing improved feel with each time he threw it. By the 4th-5th inning, Burns was backfooting it to right-handed hitters and setting up the fastball away later in counts. One knock I came away with was his inability to land it with consistency at the bottom of the zone for stolen strikes or chases. With improved execution in that regard it can push the pitch into plus territory.
Pitch Grade: 50/55
Pitch Three: Changeup
Velo: 83-85 mph
Movement: Showed his changeup early as an alternative to his slider versus left-handed hitters, and the first time through the order it showed as well as the breaking ball. As the game wore on the dichotomy in quality between the two pitches became more obvious. His changeup lacks consistency in shape and sharpness, and his ability to command it lags behind his feel for both his fastball and slider. At its best it shows good armside run and fade, perfectly mimicking his low armside fastball’s movement. Other times it’s located poorly and an easy take. It shows flashes of an above average offering but it will take greater consistency to get there.
Pitch Grade: 40/45
Mechanics: A lot of discussion around Burns both good and bad will revolve around his size. Detractors will point to his maxed out six-foot frame, slightly violent mechanics, and injury history as potential red flags. While others will embrace his uniqueness, highlighting the angle he creates on the fastball and solid SEC track record. In their own right they’re both correct.
Burns’ size does generate questions about his ability to holdup over the rigors of a full MLB season. His mechanics are some what violent, though he’s very much in control of his body throughout his motion, and does an excellent job of staying on time. He creates good torque from his lower half, and though his three quarters arm-slot does put strain on his shoulder and elbow, his arm stroke is clean and he does a good job of repeating his arm position at foot strike. However, it’s Burns elite balance and how it translates to his windup that’s most exciting. He’ll mess with his timing and delay his step toward the plate just to keep hitter off balance. They are moments like these where Burns’ balance is on full display.
Overall it’s an efficient operation and creates deception due to his natural release point. Likely to never be a 200-inning horse, but a 150-170 inning starter seems possible.
Overview: Overall Burns’ unique fastball characteristics and his uncanny feel for the pitch give the righthander a strong foundation as a professional prospect. His ability to work to all four quadrants effectively, generate weak contact, and command the zone all add up to a plus fastball. His slider has improved to the point it can be considered a true swing and miss offering, showing more depth and improved late life compared to its early iterations. With further development and consistency the slider could exceed the above average ceiling grade placed on it here. To get there it would take improved location at the bottom of the zone, as previously discussed. His changeup is the real wild card, if he can consistently replicate it’s best shape, and locate it with consistency the makings of an above average or better pitch are there in its movement profile.
His ability to miss bats is well documented setting the Freshman strikeout record, and punching out 210 batters over 188.2 career innings. He pairs that with a groundball heavy profile, that keeps hard contact in check. An ideal combination for an arm in any role.
While there’s certainly durability concerns due to Burns frame, injury history, and the hints of violence in his mechanics, he has a track record of health and production in the nation’s premier collegiate conference. He should have the ability to provide 150-170 innings annually in a mid-rotation role, permitted he reaches his ceiling. A high floor arm with bat-missing upside.
Overall: 50/55
Future Role: Mid-rotation starter/Bulk Starter