A weekend around Boston featuring a strong ACC matchup and one of the top prep pitchers in the country.
LIVE LOOKS: North Carolina State at Wake Forest, 4/9 (DOUBLEHEADER)
Deep Drives: LSU/South Carolina Showdown
It’s not too often that you get to have eyes on two of the best players in a draft cycle. Well, that’s exactly what we got over the weekend in Columbia.
While Mother Nature had other plans for us, this weekend’s series between LSU and South Carolina was an electric factory. Despite the rubber match being canceled, we managed to get two great games in from a draft perspective. In this week’s return of Deep Drives, I’ll welcome one of our newest draft writers in William Mann, who gets to have some fun on writing blurbs. From Paul Skenes getting tested to Ethan Petry becoming an icon in Columbia, here’s our takes from a wild weekend down south.
RHP Paul Skenes, lsu (No. 4 on Top 400, 199 digs+)
What Paul Skenes has done this year atop LSU’s rotation has been nothing short of incredible. Coming into his start on Thursday, he had struck out 51.9% of the batters he had faced on the year, a figure we have not seen since Strasburg’s 2009 season to this point. South Carolina posed to be his biggest challenge of the year, and while he had two blemishes that would ultimately hand him his first loss of the year, he’d still find a way to impress and even up that insane strikeout rate.
He’s undergone an insane transformation under Wes Johnson’s supervision. Formerly 92-95 MPH in our look at CNT, Skenes is now comfortably in the upper 90’s and touched 100 MPH on numerous occasions Thursday. It comes in like a bowling ball and he has excellent command of the pitch, mainly working east-west across the zone. The pitch will get upwards of twenty inches of run or more, which is truly absurd. The slider is his primary out pitch, a high-80s offering with serious late bite and sweep that plays very well low in the zone. He showed an ability to manipulate the shape, showcasing more depth at times, though it’s primarily a big sweeper with fifteen inches or more horizontal movement. It’s easily plus. The change-up did not get much usage, with only two being thrown, but it has great velocity separation in the 88-89 MPH range with big tumble. It’s likely an above-average pitch moving forward. He’s got great feel to spin, as well.
The aforementioned two blemishes he had would be two long home runs from Ethan Petry and Braylen Wimmer. South Carolina tested him throughout on close pitches and didn’t chase all that much early, as Petry showcased in his first at-bat. Petry’s home run was on a 99 MPH heater on the outer third, whereas Wimmer got a middle-middle heater and he did not miss it. He ultimately tallied ten whiffs overall with eight strikeouts in the three innings before a lightning delay ended his night. As a result, his strikeout rate on the year has jumped up to 53% (!).
Skenes is likely one of the best collegiate arms in recent memory. A true three-pitch mix with the big swing-and-miss traits he has, as well as very good command of his arsenal and ease of operation, really stand out and if Dylan Crews did not exist this year, you’re likely looking at the 1.1 favorite with three months remaining to the draft. It’s hard to envision Skenes falling out of the top three picks at this moment in time. - Tyler
OF Dylan Crews, lsu (no. 1 on top 400, 196 bags+)
On the other side of the ball for LSU, what Dylan Crews has done in 2023 is bordering on legendary. He’s had control of the top spot in this draft class for his entire collegiate career thus far and he’s only gone and continued to improve, currently hitting above .500 over halfway into the season with high exit velocities and contact rate. However, he showed some struggles at the plate in his battles against South Carolina pitching.
It felt as if Crews was being a bit too selective and patient at the plate and dug himself holes rather early in counts, allowing South Carolina pitchers to get into their weapons in two-strike counts. Crews has shown a tendency to struggle with sliders and change-ups and that’s what got him on the strikeouts he had over the weekend. At one point, he had swung at a slider in the dirt early in a count before whiffing on a change-up down and in. He’d end the weekend with just one single to his name that was of the infield variety. He did get hit twice and walked once in the second game, which allowed LSU to capitalize and take the lead in the top of the ninth to avoid a sweep.
With those struggles noted, he still showed off the tools that’s allowed him to become the 1.1 favorite. In batting practice, it was a line drive showcase to all fields. There’s plenty of bat speed visible to the naked eye, too, helping his potential plus power grade. As a runner, it’s above-average to plus speed, as he recorded a 4.16 home-to-first time on Friday and followed that up with a 4.25 on the infield single. You don’t find that kind of run tool with a right-handed hitter often. The speed allows him to get great range in center field and he showcased solid routes in both games. It’s enough to say he’ll hold down that spot unless there’s a better option for a team in the minors, where his arm would play well at. It’s a true five-tool potential profile and as of now, I have a hard time thinking he doesn’t go 1.1, but more clarity will appear as we creep closer to draft day. - Tyler
OF ethan petry, south carolina (197 bags+)
Ethan Petry likely will have the key to the city of Columbia come July. Why? Well, for starters, this is the most impressive freshman in the country at this point in time and is the driving force in a potent Gamecock offense that has solidified itself as one of the best in the nation. Oh, and it’s likely that this is a high-end first-round profile in 2025.
His plate discipline and approach are rather advanced for a freshman in the SEC, and while he could draw more walks, he does a good job of limiting strikeouts and doesn’t show too much swing-and-miss to his game. His power comes very easy and there’s plenty of juice in his bat, which he displayed with two home runs in Thursday’s game, including one against Paul Skenes. He’d spit at 99 MPH and 100 MPH just off the outside corner in his first at-bat before pulling a 99 MPH heater on the outer third for a mammoth line drive homer, traveling 400 feet and leaving the bat at 111 MPH. He’d strike out on a nasty slider from Skenes in the next at-bat, but he’d crush a down and in slider from Micah Bucknam in his third at-bat for a grand slam, sending Founders Park into a frenzy. It’s truly special what he’s done.
Defensively, he’s got the stereotypical frame to play the outfield, a physical specimen with a projectable upper half to his body. He takes good routes and has a solid arm, though most of his value presently comes from the bat. He did have some infield time as a prep, and maybe there’s a chance he gets to play there at some point in his college career, but it’s likely that he sticks in the outfield. He does have some good athleticism, though his run tool is never going to stand out and is likely below-average at best. However you view this profile, you’re looking at the likely SEC Freshman of the Year winner. - Tyler
SS Jordan thompson, lsu (no. 217 on top 400, 140 bags+)
If there was anyone I’d have to say was the best bat throughout the weekend for LSU, it’d have to be their shortstop, Jordan Thompson.
Thompson has slowly, but surely, evolved himself into more of an offensive threat while on campus in Baton Rouge. He’s still got some issues with spin away from him, but this is a kid that will battle pitchers in the box. He had multiple at-bats that lasted seven to eight pitches, fouling off pitches and protecting the plate. What was a bit of a surprise was the power in the bat. He had two long home runs to his pull-side, both of which were on pitches in the inner third of the plate. The kid knows how to turn on a pitch, sending both out with exit velocities hovering around 105 MPH and one of the balls landed halfway up the bleachers in deep left field. His swing is more suited for line drives, primarily to the gaps, too.
He’s certainly improved overall with his defense at shortstop, coming off a campaign with eighteen errors in 2022, though he admittedly struggled at times against South Carolina. It felt as if he was rushing himself and should have slowed down to make plays, accruing two errors throughout the series. He’s got the range and arm to stick at the position, though he likely profiles more as a utility infielder who starts at shortstop in the minor leagues. He’s certainly raised his stock this year and likely finds himself being drafted somewhere in the early part of Day 2. - Tyler
RHP Jack Mahoney, south carolina (no. 80 on top 400, 131 digs+)
In what’s been a pleasant surprise in 2023, South Carolina RHP Jack Mahoney has seemingly turned himself into one of the better SEC arms in this year’s draft class. He had missed the entirety of the 2022 season with a torn UCL, but he’s making a statement in 2023 and profiles as the best arm the team has.
There’s a good chance that Mahoney likely throws harder down the line with the way he moves down the mound, though for now, he’s primarily in the 92-95 MPH range with two-seam life that plays horizontally across the zone. He’s shown an ability to paint the corners with the pitch, though he likely won’t miss a ton of bats moving forward. He only had two whiffs on the heater, one up and away from Tre’ Morgan and the other boring in on the hands of Paxton Kling. The slider is his best pitch overall. A sweeper in the 80-85 MPH range, his slider is his primary out pitch that tunnels well with his fastball. It gives him a potentially dominant two-pitch pairing that would play very well out of a bullpen down the line. He mixes in a change-up that is firm and dives away from lefties, though it’s sparsely utilized.
He’s had a very good year up to this point and the command, which was a bit of worry coming off the injury, has looked very solid. This is a profile that could find itself scratching its way into the second round, though as of now, a third-round selection seems more likely. Mahoney has the potential to move quickly, especially if an organization believes he’s better suited for a bullpen role moving forward. With that said, he’s earned the opportunity to start at the next level. - Tyler
SS Braylen swimmer, south Carolina (168 bags+)
Wimmer displayed many reasons why he was selected in the 18th round of the 2022 MLB Draft by the Phillies on Thursday night. He doesn't fear anyone at the plate between, not even the best pitcher in the country, Paul Skenes. Wimmer went 2-for-3 with a homer, a pair of walks, and a pair of RBIS.
He is 6'4 and looks every part of it with his upright stance at the plate. This frame allows him to take long strides and be a plus runner for his size. On the flip side, however, his frame looks to be negative at short, and while he has a tendency to make highlight reel plays there, he often looks clunky, and he's still learning at the position.
Wimmer isn't a hitter that's going to get cheated at the plate, and this is what positioned him to have such a quality night up there. He displayed this perfectly in the third inning when Skenes grooved him a 98 mph fastball middle-middle, and Wimmer completely took advantage of it with the ball leaving the park. The ball left his bat going 107 mph and went a nice 407 feet before finding former Gamecock Tight end Nate Adkins's hands. Wimmer finished the day with a couple of walks and a single.
Braylen Wimmer is a very polished senior, and he has picked up right where he left off SEC play last year. Many questioned his decision to return and play shortstop for his final season, and while the position change is still up in the air, no one is questioning his ability to handle the bat when the lights shine the brightest. - William
RHP James Hicks, south Carolina (no. 300 on top 400, 114 digs+)
Just like Wimmer, James Hicks was also selected in the 2022 MLB draft, but by the Brewers in the 15th round. With last season being very short-lived for Hicks due to a torn UCL, he decided to return to school to make a more prominent name for himself and improve his stock for the next cycle.
While not overpowering in stature, Hicks is a nice 6’2 190 and utilizes this athletic frame well on the mound. He is a real competitor on the mound, and on Thursday night against LSU, there were plenty of moments showcasing this.
Hicks is a true sinkerballer who uses his slider to complement the movement of the sinker well. The sinker sits around 90-92 but can occasionally run it up to 94. The slider is a true putout pitch here and has a whiff rate over 40%. The slider is nasty and flashes plus potential to me. The sinker is full of life and can be a plus pitch going forward.
All in all, Hicks has done everything the South Carolina staff asked of him, including a very impressive outing Thursday night against top-ranked LSU, where he went 4 innings, giving up two runs. Although he gave up these runs, he looked comfortable out there and mostly pitched to contact until eventually giving up a two-run shot to SS Jordan Thompson. Hicks has been labeled a Swiss army knife by many, which raised his draft stock from a year ago. He is one to keep a close eye on as the draft continues to creep up on us. - William
Honorable Mentions: 3B Tommy White, LSU; RHP Will Sanders, South Carolina; 1B/OF Tre’ Morgan, LSU; RHP Gavin Guidry, LSU
Live Looks: Oklahoma State @ TCU
SoCal Stars: No.3 Santa Margarita Catholic vs Servite
The end of March had some excellent stars to watch, but a special outing between what seems to be one of the best teams in California in Santa Margarita Catholic taking on Servite was the highlight of the third edition of Socal Stars.
Luke Lavin, C, 2023, SMCHS
Lavin has a very long and still lean frame for a backstop, but that doesn’t affect his ability to present a low target for his pitchers, he moves well for his size and shows solid tools, with room to improve his receiving behind the dish. The tool that stands out is the bat, he presents himself as a confident hitter in the box and his size allows him to get leverage in his swing. The hands start low with a step and hand load but has excellent bat speed that can produce hard contact, and he sprayed a few line drives around the yard.
One impressive thing that also helped him stand out at the plate was the willingness to stick with his approach, he was aggressive in the zone, hunting his pitch and not missing it, but willing to take if it wasn’t what he wanted. His biggest areas of growth will be receiving, where he has soft hands but has issues sticking pitches, especially pitches on his arm side and pitches low. He did show off a strong throwing arm as well, hosing down a runner in game 1 that had a solid jump but was out by several feet, the arm is strong and accurate with some carry to the bag. Lavin is unranked in the current Prospects Live top 400, but the Stanford commit is someone to keep an eye on as he could develop nicely after reaching campus
Blake Balsz, C/1B, 2023, SMCHS
It’s great to see a talent behind the plate in high school, but to have depth like this is a blessing for SMCHS. Blake Balsz is a different type of player than his teammate Luke, Blake was at 1B in game 1, but it’s worth noting he’s committed to UCLA as a Catcher, and is playing 1B moreso to make sure Lavin can play as well. Balsz has some versatility and is a more compact frame, with a bit more present strength in a smaller frame. He keeps his hip closed during his stride which allows him to rotate well and use a lot of his lower half strength in his swing to generate his power. While there is some pre-pitch movement, he gets his hands in a good spot and it’s a level swing, and a contact-heavy profile, there isn’t a lot of room to grow on the frame but his gap-to-gap approach of hitting can play with plenty of line drive XBHs.
Defensively it was a bit of a whirlwind, missing a pickoff from his pitcher early on in game 1 but made up for it with several nice plays in the field later. He has solid reflexes defensively and good hands, which translate both at 1B and catcher.
Live Looks: #2 Florida @ #11 Tennessee 04/06
Live Looks: Rutgers @ Maryland (4/7 and 4/9)
Live Looks: UCLA @ Long Beach State 4/4
NHSI Notebook Part 2: Bats
Socal Stars No. 2: Harvard Westlake vs Chaminade
Live Looks: UGA @ Vanderbilt 3/31 - 4/1
Live Looks: Georgia Tech at Boston College
NHSI Notebook Part 1: Pitching
Live looks #1: Wake Forest at Clemson 3/30/23
Wake Forest looked for their red-hot bats to stay hot as they took on Clemson at Doug Kingsmore Stadium and stay hot they did from the first inning onward.
1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest , 2024
The sophomore first baseman kicked things off in the first inning by hitting an 0-2 fastball way out of the stadium to right field, scoring Castillo. What was most impressive about the swing was how fast Kurtz got hands through the zone.
In the following at-bat, Kurtz worked his way up 3-0 and quickly fell down in the count 3-2. He managed to foul two away before Austin Gordon eventually put him away swinging. Kurtz Walked once and struck out again before grounding out to short to end his day in the 9th.
Kurtz is also an excellent fielder, and on multiple occasions, he bailed out his fellow infielders. At one point, he made a miraculous pick to end the inning. After seeing Kurtz play, all the tools are there that make him a potential top-ten pick in the 2024 MLB Draft.
3B Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 2023
Fortunately enough I got to the ballpark a few hours early and watched Wilken’s batting practice.Baseballs were jumping off of Wilken’s bat as he easily sprayed balls to both gaps; the raw power and gap power were being shown off to those who watched. In one of the culminating swings, Wilken put a ball about 3/4 of the way up the left-field bleachers.
One of the big questions for me coming into the day was how Wilken would do when he was down in the count. He didn't do a good job of fighting back when he was behind, making life more challenging than it needed to be for him. The day could have been better for him, but it certainly wasn't bad. He had a pair of strikeouts, one of which was pretty bad at bat for Wilken's standards. The second strikeout of the day came after multiple foul balls, and Austin Gordon just caught him off guard.
Now onto the good for Wilken; he had a pair of really nice swings, both of which he turned on well and resulted in singles, one coming in the 4th on an 0-0 count and the other coming in the 8th on a 1-1 count. All in all, Brock Wilken was as advertised and looks poised to have an excellent finish to the 2023 regular season.
LF Will Taylor, Clemson, 2024
Another question I had coming into this weekend was how Will Taylor would handle the surplus of elite arms that Wake Forest has. Taylor answered this question by going 3-for-4 and scoring two runs in the process. His first hit of the day came in the first inning as he put the 3-1 pitch up the middle for an excellent single.
The next hit came in the bottom of the 6th inning, where Taylor blooped one in shallow center field where no one could get to it. My favorite thing about this play was how hard Taylor ran out of the box; this showcased how much of a competitor he is and will continue to be.
RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest, 2023
A pair of Wake Forest Pitchers stuck out today, the first being projected top-20 pick Rhett Lowder. He went seven innings giving up a run, and seven hits, many of which were not hit that hard, struck out 6. He has an awe-inspiring arsenal of weapons he'll throw at any given start.
Lowder’s 6’2 frame on the mound needs to be mentioned, and it's worth noting how athletic he looks on the mound. He looks like a natural and is invested in every pitch and result. He uses this athleticism nicely in the field did a decent job of fielding his position, highlighted by a nice put-out to first on a rollover.
The best pitch Lowder throws is his changeup, which sits around 84-87. His change has a noticeable amount of fade, making life very difficult on all hitters. He starts many at-bats against left-handed hitters off with his fading changeup. Lowder located his changeup well but could not get many swings and misses or strike calls. However, he also deploys a nice slider that dives very late in the zone. The slider forced a handful of swing and misses and looked to be his most impressive pitch on Thursday night. His fastball which sits around 91-94 leaves a lot to be desired and quite frankly doesn’t have much life to it causing him to rely on his other pitches. It’s worth noting that he also throws a cut fastball which was getting weak contact consistently for him.
Before the game, I had never gotten a chance to see Lowder throw live, but he looks like he has a great chance to become an even better pitcher with small improvements to the life and velocity of his fastball. Lowder is a projected top-20 pick in this year's draft, and there was no shortage of moments in this game to solidify that.
RHP Michael Massey, Wake Forest, 2024
Finally, we reach the final pitcher of the night for Wake Forest, Michael Massey. After a decent year at Tulane, he hit the portal and committed to Wake. This decision looks to be paying off well, and Massey showed why he has a plethora of reasons to be in the weekend rotation next year.
I’d never seen Massey pitch before today, and he lived up to expectations. Massey's fastball sits 93-96 with good zip that's underscored by good extension from his 6-5 frame.
He was charged with the fireman role and did a tremendous job of getting out of the jam he inherited in the 8th. He followed that up with a 1-2-3 9th while striking out the first two guys he faced.In a relatively quick outing, Massey showed off his impressive fastball, and with improvement to his secondary pitchers, he will be one to watch for the 2024 draft as he looks to keep moving up boards.
