RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee (No.3 on Top 400)
Dollander is one of the best arms in recent memory, enough said there. However, this isn’t quite the same Dollander as we saw in 2022 and while he’s still part of that upper echelon of college arms in this class, I’ve got some reservations about his stuff on the bump.
The first and second innings of Dollander’s start against Texas A&M were rough, to say the least. He struggled to command the fastball and couldn’t land it for strikes and he was playing games with the pitch clock, violating it twice. Jack Moss would torch a 97 MPH fastball to the opposite field to score the first run of the game, leaving the bat at 99 MPH. It seemed as if he wouldn’t last past the third inning. However, aces grind and that’s exactly what Dollander did. He’d pitch into the seventh, even after throwing 52 pitches in the first two innings. He settled in very nicely, holding his 95-98 MPH velocity throughout the outing and showcased a decent mix of carry and run. The curveball and change-up were the primary secondaries that performed nicely. The change-up was a solid weapon against lefties with great fading life that garnered a few chases and the curveball, while mainly utilized for first pitch strikes, showcased 11-5 shape with solid depth and bite. The slider didn’t get a chase in the high-80’s, but showcases good sweeping life. Everything Dollander throws has high spin, with the breaking balls getting above 2,600 RPM’s multiple times.
With that said, here are some reservations to talk about. Dollander’s stuff isn’t quite the same as it was in his dominant 2022 campaign. As Cam Lanzilli pointed out earlier this week, there’s been metric changes that have led to his early season struggles.
There’s been a change in tilt and as a result, the fastball has become flatter vertically, becoming more of a “dead-zone” heater. For reference, a “dead-zone” heater is classified as a heater with identical vertical break and horizontal break, or roughly around 12-16 inches of vertical break. Losing that kind of ride from 2022 has made it tougher for Dollander to get lefties out. The curveball has also become more of a sweeping pitch instead of the traditional 12-6 breaker he had last year. There’s a bit less feel, too. The slider has also lost a bit of sweeping movement and, as a result, hasn’t been getting many chases from righties. That said, the fastball is still plus thanks to Dollander’s release height and VAA, and I still view the change-up and curveball being above-average offerings in the future.
Time will tell if Frank Anderson is able to get Dollander back to his previous form and put the struggles behind him. However, if a big league organization is able to make the necessary changes to his arsenal, he’s got the potential to be an absolute force in the minor leagues. His next appearance will be against Paul Skenes in what will likely be the most anticipated matchup in recent memory. Get that popcorn ready.
RHP Chase burns, tennessee
The 2024 college pitching is looking rather robust at this point in time and quite honestly, it might be better than what we’ve got in this year’s cycle. Chase Burns is part of that top tier of pitching in next year’s class with one of the best pitches in that class.
His start Saturday started off a bit rough. After giving up an infield single to lead off the game, Jack Moss sent a 99 MPH heater to the opposite field gap that left the yard, giving Texas A&M an early 2-0 lead. After that? Burns would retire 16 of the next 17 guys before the wheels came off in the sixth inning. Texas A&M had three straight hits with two outs before Burns walked two more guys, ending his day. The stuff is dynamic, starting off with a loud fastball that touched 99 MPH as late as the fourth inning and sitting 94-98 MPH throughout the outing. The pitch has solid metrics and he can pump strikes while living glove-side to right-handers. The slider/cutter hybrid is by far his best offering. He can manipulate the shape, with a more classic slider at 85-87 MPH and a tighter cutter at 88-90 MPH with late bite and sweep, spinning upwards of 2,800 RPM’s. It’s easily plus now and had the most whiffs in the outing, getting thirteen total whiffs. He has a change-up that he throws very hard, sitting 88-92 MPH with good fade and sink that he primarily used against lefties, garnering a couple of whiffs. He’s got great command of his arsenal, though it was evident that his command wavered once he became more tired in the sixth inning.
Much like Dollander, the fastball isn’t missing many bats this year. While the velocity is there and there’s decent carry, I do believe the higher release height and more downhill plane he has makes it a bit tougher to get whiffs. That said, the slider makes up for this with the amount of swing-and-miss it generates. The change-up gives promise, too. Furthermore, despite the longer arm stroke, Burns is on time with his delivery and showcases very good scap retraction at foot plant. That, mixed with his projectable frame, gives the impression that he will be sitting closer to 100 MPH at some point down the line.
He’ll get a very tough assignment against the top lineup in the country in LSU this upcoming week. I’m excited to see how he manages to get Dylan Crews and company out.
RHP Drew Beam, Tennessee
Another potentially potent arm in the 2024 class just happens to be Tennessee’s Sunday guy, right-hander Drew Beam. He wasn’t the same well known prep arm that Burns was when he got to campus, but he’s gone from a relative unknown to a very good arm in Tony Vitello’s stable.
There’s been a bit of development for Beam as he’s began to add more velocity to his fastball. He was more of a low-90’s guy in 2022 and on Sunday, he began the outing at 95-97 MPH and topped out at 98 MPH, showcasing good command horizontally. The fastball is more suited for ground-balls than whiffs and he’s able to paint the corners when he’s on. However, as the outing went along, he began to sit more in the 92-95 MPH range and began to get lit up a bit by Texas A&M hitters. He’s introduced a new cutter as a weapon against right-handers, sitting in the high-80’s with tight spin, though the feel for the pitch was off and on as the outing progressed. The change-up is solid in the same velocity band as the cutter and is his primary weapon against lefties. He’s able to kill spin and the pitch has good tumbling action, but much like the cutter, his feel wavered towards the end of the outing. There’s a slurvy breaker in the high-70’s/low-80’s that will need to be refined moving forward. It felt as if the pitch morphs between a true curveball and a slider and he did hang it a couple of times, most notably on a first inning home run by, you guessed it, Jack Moss.
He’s got a sturdy frame to work with and has some projection left. The velocity uptick is a good sign, but it’s also not end all, be all with fastball grades. He’ll need to show more swing-and-miss traits and he’s a likely candidate to develop more of a sinker down the line. The pitchability is better than it was last year, though shoring up the slurvy breaker will be key for him.
He may not be a first round guy in 2024, but it's still a Day 1 profile. It’s similar to what Thomas Harrington had in 2022, though it’s slightly more velocity and Harrington had better off-speed.
SS Maui Ahuna, Tennessee (No.62 on Top 400)
It’s been a roller coaster year already for Ahuna, having transferred to Knoxville from Kansas and ultimately became forced to sit while the NCAA investigated his transfer. It’s the one position Tennessee didn’t have great production from in 2022 and he’s performed admirably after returning to the lineup.
It’s a very solid bat in its own right. Ahuna loves to utilize the gaps and he used thw whole field throughout the weekend. He had a triple and a double on Friday against Nathan Dettmer and added another double off a tough lefty-lefty matchup against Troy Wansing on Saturday. It’s solid bat speed with average power and he’s got average speed on the bases, clocking in around 4.2 seconds from home to first base. That said, there’s some swing-and-miss to deal with here, especially with spin. He has some trouble recognizing spin, though while he did whiff quite a bit on off-speed pitches, he made good adjustments. With that said, he’s got to shore up the strikeouts if he’s to solidify himself as a Day 1 guy.
Defensively, he's very sound at shortstop and will stick there at the next level. He’s got good range and showcases soft hands and quick feet, exuding confidence. His internal clock was great and his throws are quick and easy with good accuracy. He did make a couple of tough plays, including jumping for a fall that he barely had any chance of catching. The glove likely drives his profile.
He'll need to work on improving his contact and limiting the strikeouts as he goes deeper into SEC play, especially with a tough matchup against Paul Skenes this week. It’s likely an early Day 2 profile, but we can’t ignore the potential of him going late on Day 1.
1B Jack Moss, Texas A&M (No.178 on Top 400)
Jack Moss was the best bat the entire weekend. There, that’s the write-up.
In all seriousness though, Jack Moss thoroughly impressed against a tough pitching staff, even if they've had their struggles. He wound up going 5-for-13 over the weekend, including two opposite field home runs against Chase Burns and Drew Beam in the first innings of each game. He’s rather patient in his approach, becoming selective on what pitch he likes to hit. He has very little issue with velocity and covers the plate well, not missing his pitch and rarely strikes out. Texas A&M was prepared for the fastball and it showed, as Moss deposited a hard hit single off 97 MPH from Dollander Friday before taking 99 MPH for a home run against Burns. The home run he hit off Beam was on a hanging breaking ball to the same spot as the previous day. He’s started to come into his power over the last week, too, and there’s considerable raw juice in his bat. He’s going to need to work on getting into it more in game, but it’s a high contact rate with feel to use all fields and showcase solid exit velocities. He had multiple exit velocities between 95 and 105 MPH.
On defense, he’s more of a first baseman at the next level, where he’s got solid defense. He made good stretches throughout the weekend, due in part to his decent athleticism. The bat will obviously have to perform at the next level as a result, but it’s a fun profile. Maybe a team could venture him out to a corner outfield spot to test his abilities there to bring on more versatility, but who knows.
Moss certainly made himself some money over the weekend. He’s more of a Day 2 profile presently, but he can push his way into third or fourth round consideration if he manages to continue hitting and getting more into his power as SEC play continues.
1B Blake Burke, Tennessee
Blake Burke might be on his way to one of the most lucrative careers in Tennessee's history. A California kid at heart, he fits in perfectly in Knoxville.
He's one of the most powerful bats in all of college baseball, there’s no debating that. He’s built like a Greek God and his swing is rather effortless from the left side of the plate. It might end up being double-plus power when all is said and done, too. There’s a ton of bat speed to his swing and when he gets his pitch, prepare to kiss it goodbye. The home run he hit off Ty Sexton on Friday was one of the hardest hit baseballs I have ever seen in person, leaving the bat at 113 MPH and clearing the scoreboard in right field by an easy twenty-five feet. If you’ve seen the video, just watch the shortstop in the background, that was my reaction, too. But it’s more than just a power bat, he’s got solid feel for the barrel and will lace line drives across the field, showcasing solid contact rates and limits his strikeouts. He may ultimately struggle with lefties, but it’s not too often that you find that kind of power with the ability to stave off strikeouts. He will have to work on improving his eye and drawing more walks, however.
Much like Moss, Burke is more of a first baseman moving forward. The bat will carry the profile as there were some rough moments defensively for him, the most notable being a throwing error in the seventh inning on Friday. He’s got decent footwork and makes good stretches, but he’ll have to improve his overall defensive profile. Time will tell if Vitello happens to give him any opportunities in the outfield.
Burke’s bat is rather special for the Knoxville crowd and he’ll undoubtedly go down in the record books once next year ends, as he’s a 2024 eligible bat. He’s already on a torrid home run pace and there’s no sign of that stopping any time soon. As for the draft, he very well could end up a Day 1 bat, but it remains to be seen if he’s a first round guy. He’ll need to improve his walk rates, among other things, if he’s to solidify himself as such with that kind of power.
Honorable Mentions: INF Christian Moore, Tennessee; INF Hunter Haas, Texas A&M; RHP Andrew Lindsay, Tennessee; INF Zane Denton, Tennessee