Welcome back to another edition of Deep Drives, but with a bit of a twist this week.
As the title suggests, this week’s edition features only bats. Virginia and NC State are two of the better offenses in the ACC and don’t have much in terms of pitching prospects, so it was an easy decision to try and work on a weak point in my scouting game. There’s seven bats to break down this week, and since we’ve talked about LuJames Groover in a recent edition, we’ll hold off on writing about his progress for next month.
C Kyle Teel
Kyle Teel really doesn’t look like he’d be a catcher. In fact, one scout I spoke with at NC State this weekend said “he looks more like a shortstop.” He’s a unicorn of sorts, and while you may see him move out of his catching roles at some point down the line, he’s still a very, very fun player.
His bat is incredibly advanced, showcasing quality plate discipline and generates a ton of contact. He’s running a contact rate right around the 90% mark on the year and he very rarely strikes out, only totaling six strikeouts through nineteen games this spring. It’s a visually pleasing swing from the left-handed box and he’s got tremendous feel for the barrel, spraying line drives to all fields with relative ease. He’s begun to utilize his pop more to all fields, too, punishing two home runs against Justin Lawson in back-to-back games. One was a laser to his pull-side on a hanging slider, while the other was pushing an outside fastball to the opposite field foul pole. For a catcher he has some solid speed, as his home-to-first times hover around the 4.3 second mark.
He’s extremely athletic and he shows it behind the plate, too. He primarily utilizes the one-knee stance, but does a good job of getting into a good throwing position. His blocking and receiving are both good, though both could use some work once he’s drafted. He can be a bit stabby with his receiving, though he’s begun to do a better job of focusing on this aspect of his game. He’s got a solid arm, too, which he showed off by throwing out Jacob Cozart at third on Thursday night. He should get a chance to start as a backstop given his athleticism, though if he were to move off the position, he could play a corner outfield spot or even try his hand at third base.
Ultimately, with the level of play we are seeing with Teel, a first round selection seems viable at this point in time. He’s got a solid chance to hit for both average and power, something you don’t normally see with a catcher, and his athleticism really stands out. He’s certainly in the running for ACC Player of the Year.
OF Ethan O’Donnell
There’s been many rising profiles in this year’s draft class already and O’Donnell is certainly one of those guys. Setting the single-season doubles record at Northwestern just a year ago, he transferred to Virginia and has immediately prospered, taking advantage of his playing time against better competition. That said, he showed some warts at the plate against NC State.
He’s got a solid, mature approach at the plate and is selective, though he did struggle against fastballs early in the series, mainly up in the zone. His lower half seemed a bit stiff on Thursday, though he showed adjustments later on in the weekend. As Friday and Saturday came along, he began to show off the hit tool more and began to limit the swing-and-miss we saw on Thursday night. He produces quality contact and utilizes all fields, and there’s some decent gap-to-gap power in his bat, though it’ll likely never be more than average. O’Donnell also has above-average to plus speed out of the box, making him a base-stealing threat.
Defensively, his speed allows him to cover plenty of ground, though route quality can be a bit rough at times. There were times where he made rather abrupt adjustments to routes over the weekend, but his defense itself is great, making a couple of tough plays. The arm is more average than anything else, but while it may lack in zip, it’s accurate. The accuracy was shown off when throwing out Cannon Peebles on Friday, placing it perfectly for Teel to apply the tag at the plate. There’s value here, though the route running will need work.
What O’Donnell has done for his stock is impressive and he’s put himself right into Day 1 conversation with a strong start to the spring. His profile consists a solid mix of average tools with above-average to plus speed and he could develop into a potential big league regular, or even a fourth outfielder, once all is said and done.
3B Jake Gelof
Jake Gelof has made quite a name for himself as a Cavalier. The younger brother of current Oakland Athletics farmhand Zack, Jake has had a historic career in Charlottesville, as he’s now in the top five for career home runs in school history with 31. As a prospect, there’s tools to work with, though there’s admittedly some divisiveness.
For starters, Gelof’s approach at the plate is rather aggressive. Scouts have wanted to see his walk rate increase, though we’ve yet to really see that happen. He commits his hips to just about every single pitch and he did show struggles against off-speed pitches throughout the weekend, totaling five strikeouts throughout the weekend. He has the makings of a fastball hunter as a result, in my honest opinion. That said, it’s a sweet swing from the right side and he has shown an ability to use all fields. The power is what really stands out, though. It’s above-average juice that he can use to all fields, but plays best to his pull-side. You’ve probably already seen the video of his go-ahead home run, but that ball cleared the left field bullpen with ease. If he’s able to shore up the approach and improve his contact rate, this could be a lethal bat.
He’s manned third base throughout his career and likely sticks at the position moving forward. He’s more of a fringe-average runner more than anything else, but he has solid range and a good arm, making great plays throughout the weekend. It felt as if the ninth inning on Saturday was the Gelof show, as he made two tough plays to throw out Carter Trice and Parker Nolan, even though Virginia was ultimately walked off. Could he move across the diamond at the pro level? It’s tough to tell, but that outcome will not be left out of the equation moving forward.
There’s certainly room to improve his stock, but ultimately, I think Gelof is more of a second round pick at this point in time. He’ll need to cut down the strikeouts and become more patient further into ACC play if he’s to become a first rounder.
SS Payton Green
The turnaround that Payton Green has had between 2022 and 2023 is quite remarkable. He admittedly struggled his freshman year, but he’s trumped the “sophomore slump” and has transformed himself into one of the better bats in the conference.
The key to his game was a swing change over the off-season. In 2022, his hands were set by his ears prior to his load, but now, they’re set lower by his shoulder and he appears more comfortable there. He’s got decent pull-side power in his bat and he’s begun to utilize all fields with the hit tool, with more consistent contact. There is still some warts at the plate, namely some swing-and-miss on breaking balls and he tends to get a bit too patient, allowing pitchers to get to their weapons deep into counts on him. But the transformation is great to see and his stock should begin to soar if he manages to keep this up throughout conference play.
Defensively, he’s got the range to play shortstop, though I have reservations about his arm. It lacks zip across the infield and I wonder if the arm is better suited for second base at the pro level. He’s not eligible until next year, so there’s time to improve on his arm strength. That said, there’s enough there to play at third base, too. It was his primary defensive home in 2022 with Josh Hood at shortstop and his body suggests that once he’s fully matured, he’d have the tools to man the hot corner. Time will ultimately tell.
Scouts have certainly taken notice of Green’s newfound success and he’s beginning to rise up our 2024 board as a result. There’s plenty of projection to his frame and should he continue to improve his approach and swing-and-miss, there’s a solid chance that he could end up being a first rounder in 2024.
C Jacob Cozart
Much like Green, Jacob Cozart has undergone quite the transformation from 2022 to 2023. He struggled offensively in 2022, only hitting .240/.337/.377 in 52 games, but he’s started off 2023 red hot and has already matched some offensive output from last spring.
He looks much more confident in his game. The swing looks improved from the left side of the plate and he’s begun to tap into his pull-side power more, with the power likely improving once he begins to fill out his frame more. He’s got a solid swing plane with some loft, but it’s primarily suited for plenty of line drives to both gaps presently. The approach looks much improved, too, as the eye has improved and he’s begun to take a bit more walks, though he does have some slight issues with spin. Like Green, he’s got time to improve this, as he won’t be eligible until next summer.
To me, he feels like a lock behind the plate. He’s got good athleticism behind the dish and he’s been long renowned as a great receiver and handles the pitching staff well. He’s got solid pop times, too, as he recorded a 1.97 pop time to throw out a runner during Thursday night’s game. He’s got a very strong arm and has the blocking skills necessary to stick back there long term. He won’t start every game with Cannon Peebles beginning to show out as a true freshman, but Cozart will continue to get a bulk of the starts back there.
There’s enough here to suggest that he can be a potent bat in the ACC come this time next year. The bat will need to continue being the dynamic threat that is has become throughout ACC play, but that feels likely given the improvements he’s made. He could very well become a Collegiate National Team candidate as a result.
1B Eli Serrano
Players like Serrano do not grow on trees. At 6’5”, 193 pounds, Serrano is the pure definition of an uber-projectable body, as he’s extremely lanky and has plenty of room to add muscle. While it might be just a first base profile, which means the bat will have to perform, he’s certainly made himself a force in the lineup.
Most players his size do show struggles with repeating swing mechanics, but Serrano is not one of those players. He repeats everything very well at the plate and there’s immense power potential with his bat. There’s solid bat speed and the power plays to all fields and it’ll only improve as he fills out his frame. He’ll spray line drives throughout the field, but mainly pays attention to the gaps. He’s a great athlete and despite his frame, runs well with a long stride. The approach is quite polished, too, as he has limited strikeouts and the kid just rakes. He’s currently in the midst of a five game hit streak as of Tuesday, March 21st.
He’s played outfield in the past, though the arm itself might be what makes Serrano a first base only profile moving forward. It’s not great in the outfield, which leaves him as a viable option in left field when all is said and done, but he may provide better defensive value at first base. He’s more of an average defender there, making good scoops and showcasing his athleticism to make good plays. As mentioned earlier, it’ll mean the bat must perform with that profile, but there’s enough to suggest that that’ll be the case.
He’s a sophomore-eligible prospect in 2024 due to his age, but the potential with the bat and his power will have scouts keeping an eye on him throughout his college career. It’s a potential Day 1 profile next July.
