About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Elly De La Cruz, SS - 60 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 3 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 60 | 55 | 70 | 70 | High |
PHYSICAL De La Cruz is tall and broad with a high waist and long levers. There’s leanness through his core and into his lower body. It’s an ideal baseball body that has plenty of room to fill out in both halves. He’s twitchy and explosive and has the natural athleticism to play anywhere on the field.
STRENGTHS De La Cruz’s athleticism stands out, but his premium tools are also beginning to actualize. He posted elite exit velocities in 2022 en route to a 28 home run season, and there’s remaining frame-based projection to suggest he can eventually possess double-plus or better raw power. He creates a ton of quality contact despite some approach issues, and there’s every reason to believe his power will play as he moves up the ladder. He’s a double-plus runner who is a legitimate stolen base threat. He can cover a lot of ground deep into the hole on the left side of the infield, and he has the rocket arm necessary to get runners out from that spot. He’s spent the majority of his time at shortstop, although he’s also experienced at third base.
WEAKNESSES There’s aggressiveness to De La Cruz’s game. He posted a 31% strikeout rate across two levels in 2022, and it’s difficult to expect him to repeat his offensive performance at higher levels without cutting down on the swing and miss. He has a general feel for the strike zone, but his tendency to chase pitches out of the zone must be addressed. There are also some mechanical issues that need refinement. He’s long-limbed and relies on his natural ability, but he’s also periodically out of synch at the plate. There’s a possibility he outgrows shortstop, and there’s generally a higher offensive threshold associated with third base.
SUMMARY De La Cruz is one of the most dynamic talents in the entire minor leagues. He has true five-tool talent that could translate into superstar ability, but it’s not without risk. He’s already an elite prospect, and there’s a distinct chance he closes 2023 as the best prospect in baseball.
EVALUATOR Jake Kerns
2. Noelvi Marte, SS/3B - 60 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 2 (SEA) OFP: 60
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 60 | 45 | 60 | 50 | High |
PHYSICAL Marte is well put together physically and taller and heavier than his listed height and weight. His body is advanced and at maturity after adding strength throughout over the last year. At the plate, he starts with an open stance and just picks his front foot up and puts it back down. He uses a minimal stride and gets his hands through the zone very well.
STRENGTHS Marte has huge power. It’s double-plus raw but he is able to get it to translate to plus during games. He posted big exit velocity numbers while in the Arizona Fall League, and he hit multiple 450+ foot home runs to his pull side. His swing is gorgeous and the homers he hits to left field are majestic. His eye at the plate is good, and he will take his walks if given nothing to hit. His contact rates are above-average, which is especially impressive considering the consistent high quality of contact off of his bat. His arm is also a plus tool arm and would be an asset at third base or right field if the Reds go that route. He’s always been young for the level and performed. This is a future middle of the order type bat.
WEAKNESSES It’s a nitpick but Marte has become really pull-heavy on offense, but that combined with the natural loft his swing generates make him a nice fit for the Cincinnati ballpark. He’s not a shortstop as he’s outgrown the position, but he likely would have moved anyways as he lacked the quickness and natural feel desired from the position. The stolen base totals are more due to his instincts on the bases than pure speed, and he could be a below-average runner soon if he continues to add size.
SUMMARY Marte was a huge part of the return for Luis Castillo, and the Reds have to be ecstatic to have a talent like this in their organization. Marte is a middle of the order bat with a swing that is a perfect fit for their park, and he should eclipse 30 or more home runs at his peak if he stays healthy. He’s an offensive force with a chance to make the hot corner his long term home.
EVALUATOR Matt Thompson
3. Cam Collier, 3B - 50 OFP
Age: 18 Highest Level: CPX
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 6
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 60 | 45 | 60 | 40 | High |
PHYSICAL Collier has a large frame with a very high waist and sloped shoulders. He utilizes a low hand position in his swing load with very little action in the lower half. He’s very physical and already possesses a pro body as a teenager. He’s a really strong and twitchy prospect with good athleticism for his size. His father Lou played seven years in the big leagues, and he stands out for his competitive nature.
STRENGTHS Collier possessed top of the class pitch recognition and swing decisions, and that translated into his brief pro debut. His at-bats stand out on nearly any field, and he gets on plane with pitches at each level of the strike zone. Collier has the size, strength, and bat speed to hit home runs to all fields, with mishit power to the pull side. There’s a legitimate chance that he has plus hit and power tools when all is said and done, and that would give him among the most offensive upside of anyone from his draft class. He also has a strong arm with good footwork and utility, and he should be able to remain a third baseman at the highest level.
WEAKNESSES Collier did have some struggles as an amateur with more advanced pitchers, including guys who could mix speeds and hit their spots. Concerns about him catching up to high fastballs still linger despite his recent production. He has solid range at third base right now, but he’s a below-average runner with a more mature body than most his age, and that might decrease his lateral mobility and push him into a more fringy option at the hot corner.
SUMMARY Possessing a lethal combination of vision, strength and twitch, Collier has tackled challenges that are nearly unprecedented for a teenager. He became a top twenty pick after reclassifying, and he more than held his own in his brief debut. The slugger has the look of a future middle of the order run producer for the rebuilt Big Red Machine.
EVALUATOR Will Hoefer
4. Edwin Arroyo, SS - 50 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season OFP: 45 (SEA)
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 50 | 55 | 60 | 55 | High |
PHYSICAL Arroyo has a prototypical shortstop body with average height and longer arms. There is some projection on his frame, although he already has good muscle in his upper body. He moves well on both sides of the ball and is explosive when underway.
STRENGTHS Arroyo is a no-doubt shortstop, and his defense will be his carrying tool. He makes every play expected of a shortstop, including highlight plays because of how good his glove and arm are. He is equally adept at going to his left and right, and he’s unafraid to charge the ball. His plus arm is accurate from a variety of platforms and is a natural fit on the left side of the infield. He’s a good runner who will be an asset on the basepaths, whether as a base stealer or runner who can go first to third. He shows an overall good feel for the game, and that translates on the offensive side of the ball, too. He is an average hitter who makes quality swing decisions on pitches in the zone. He’s posted above-average exit velocities, and there’s a legitimate chance he also grows into average playable power.
WEAKNESSES There’s a propensity in his game to chase pitches out of the zone. Arroyo can be too aggressive at times and either whiff or make suboptimal contact with pitches out of the zone. He’ll need to reel back that aggressiveness to ensure he makes the most of his hit and power tools.
SUMMARY Arroyo projects out as an average hitter with average game power, but his defense will carry him and be a large majority of how he provides his value. His ability to switch hit at a high level will allow him to avoid platoon issues, and the upside here will be dictated by his offensive growth. He was one of the bigger breakout prospects in 2022 before being traded to the Reds in the Luis Castillo trade.
EVALUATOR Rhys White
5. Matt McLain, 2B/SS - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 4 OFP: 50
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 45 | 50 | 45 | 60 | High |
PHYSICAL McLain has average height with sloping shoulders. He’s narrow in his hips and core, and his body is evenly distributed. It’s a smaller frame, but he has present strength in his shoulders and forearms. There’s more room to fill out, but this may just be who he is. He’s a good athlete.
STRENGTHS McLain has a very patient approach that allows him to see a ton of pitches when he’s up to bat. He doesn’t chase out of the zone, and he’s capable of working the count. He has a quick and compact swing that covers the entire plate, and he regularly produces line drive contact when he connects. There are good bat-to-ball skills here, and he’s performed better at the plate when utilizing a contact-oriented approach. He didn’t show it in 2022, but there’s an above-average hit tool here. He has posted above-average exit velocities, and he can get into about average raw power. McLain has spent the majority of his time at shortstop since entering pro ball, but he’s also played some second base. He might be an above-average defender at the keystone if he focuses his efforts there. He’s a plus runner.
WEAKNESSES McLain was too passive in 2022, and he simply got behind in the count too frequently. He also didn’t make enough contact on pitches in the zone, and those two issues led to a pretty heavy strikeout rate in Double-A. He tapped into more of his raw power, but it came at the expense of his hit tool. McLain won’t be a shortstop at the big league level. There’s some effort in his defense, particularly on balls to his right, and he also has a pretty fringy arm. The tools would play best on the right side of the infield or perhaps in center field.
SUMMARY McLain didn’t make the amount of contact that many anticipated in 2022, but the tools are still intact for him to turn into a big league regular at second base. He just needs to strike the right balance between his hit and power tools.
EVALUATOR Jake Kerns
6. Andrew Abbott, LHP - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 15 OFP: 45
7. Chase Petty, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 4 (MIN) OFP: 55
8. Levi Stoudt, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 25 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season OFP: 50 (SEA)
9. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 3B - 45 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked (MIN)
10. Brandon Williamson, LHP - 45 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season OFP: 50 (SEA)