There’s a lot more to scouting than raw counting stats and body projection. Identifying what a player could become, in a lot of ways, is hidden inside the data. Not only are we looking at how hard does a pitcher throw, but we want to know how well he can spin it. Along those lines, does said pitcher have the ability to create an efficient spin direction, and is that spin itself optimized to produce the most movement on the baseball possible? In a lot of ways, each of these contributing factors help paint a picture in terms of what a player could be capable in the future, and to some extent, what their role on a big league pitching staff may be. That’s where TrackMan, Yakkertech and HawkEye come into play.
Ball-tracking systems have changed baseball immensely. Gone are the days of exclusively trusting our eyes and ears to determine who can really rip through the leather and make a hitter look foolish. These days, it’s qualifiable.
Over the past couple years, several data-darlings were selected in the MLB Draft despite not posting outlandish stat lines for their respective schools. In 2020, NC State lefty Nick Swiney went in the second round to the Giants despite owning a fastball that never once touched 92 mph and sat 87-90 most nights. The action Swiney could induce on a baseball was exemplary. He averaged close to 19.5 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) on his heater, a mark that would put him among the best in the big leagues. Even more impressive, his curveball averaged close to -19 inches of IVB. That’s nearly three feet of separation between the two pitches. Even more remarkable, Swiney’s changeup may be his best pitch.
This past July, Dallas Baptist RHP Dom Hamel was selected in the 3rd round by the New York Mets despite never once posting an ERA under 4.20 while on campus. But Hamel’s pitch design is sublime. He up to 95 with the fastball, averaging 19.3 inches of IVB in 2021. That, coupled with a curveball averaging close to -19 inches of IVB. Hamel’s changeup and slider both flashed above average at times, and their respective shapes were advanced. He worked in the zone a lot and had feel for 4 pitches. That’s some incredible clay. Now, it’s just a matter of sequencing, learning how to deploy his stuff and the results may follow.
The 2022 class of college arms has some very interesting hurlers. Today, we’ll focus on the fastball. There’s some fair optimized heat here.
Zachary Maxwell, RHP, Georgia Tech
Maxwell, a 30th round pick by the New York Yankees in the 2019 MLB Draft, has always captured the attention of scouts. At 6-foot-7, 270 pounds, it’s a big, burly, intimidating body with the stuff to back it up.
Maxwell, arguably, has the most explosive fastball returning to college baseball in 2022. In 2021 over 32 innings, Maxwell averaged close to 96mph on the heater, touching 100, but its shape is what will undoubtedly catch the attention of data analysts. Maxwell threw close to 500 four-seam fastballs in 2021 and induced over 21 inches of vertical break on the pitch, on average. That is as elite as it gets. You can count on one hand the amount of big leaguers that averaged north of 21 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) on their fastball in 2020. All this while averaging well north of 2400 RPM. We’re talking about a pitch that could decimate the opposition if commanded at the top of the zone.
But with Maxwell it’s always been about harnessing his talent. To this point, he hasn’t thrown enough strikes to become an option in the Yellow Jackets rotation. In 46.1 collegiate innings, he’s walked 57 batters. That just won’t play. To his credit the 76 punchouts he’s produced in that same time speaks to just how dynamic his arm get be when he’s in the zone.
Armed with a wipeout slider and a changeup, 2022 will be a big year for Maxwell. The sky is the limit if he can take a huge step forward on the command front.
Tyler Stuart, RHP, Southern Miss
Like Maxwell, Tyler Stuart from Southern Miss is an absolute load on the bump. Standing 6-foot-9, 235 pounds, it’s a whole lot of arm coming down the mound. Also like Maxwell, Stuart is a reliever, but that may change in 2022.
Stuart doesn’t suffer from the same warts as Maxwell. While the command isn’t great by any means, it’s yet to be a liability for the Kankakee, Illinois native. Across 21.1 collegiate innings, Stuart has issued 10 free passes, punching out 16 along the way.
Stuart has been up to 99, sitting 95-96 on most night with arm-side run. He generates high spin rates on the fastball and is a strong candidate to not only add more velocity in 2022, but also grow into a longer option for Southern Miss. Given his enormous frame and steep plane, Stuart will want to continue optimizing his fastball into the bowling ball offering it has the potential to become.
Brandon Birdsell, RHP, Texas Tech
The Twins 11th round selection in 2021, Birdsell elected not to sign and instead return to Texas Tech where he squarely has unfinished business. Over 35.1 innings this season, Birdwell posted a 3.06 ERA before going down with a nagging arm injury.
Birdsell has a live arm and a fastball that’s only getting better. In 2021, he averaged 95.1 mph on his fastball, touching 99. He averaged over 20 inches of IVB on the fastball this season, again, a truly outlandish figure. Even better, his 9 walks really show his feel for commanding the strike zone.
Birdsell mixes in a firm, tight slider and a budding changeup that’s shown growth over the course of his career. He’s a good bet to start in Lubbock in 2022 and has the stuff to work his way into the first few rounds of the 2022 draft should he stay healthy and his secondaries take another step forward.