Scouting is a comprehensive exercise. As the years go by and organizations are privy to more and more complex data, the art of scouting can get muddy. It seems gone are the days of judging a player purely off his measurables, his actions and discernable abilities as perceived by the naked eye. Sure, that’s where we start. We want to see how the body operates, how it performs against comparable competition and where it could project moving forward. But after those boxes have been checked, big data has its say.
It can be difficult differentiating and ranking players of the same archetype with similar skillsets. For example, in 2020, you look at Nick Bitsko and Jarred Kelley. Both considered in the public space as reasonably premier draft prospects. Both could run the fastball into the upper-90s and both possessed big, durable starting pitcher frames. But they were different in a few critical areas.
Bitsko featured a high-efficiency four seam fastball with plus spin and highly optimized spin direction. His induced vertical break would sit north of 19 inches. Bitsko also featured a high-spin breaking ball. While Kelley could run it up into the high-90s as well, his fastball metrics weren’t quite as exciting and he lacked feel for a good breaking ball. In fact, Kelley never consistently showed the ability to really rip through a baseball and create high spin at all. He did have a better changeup than Bitsko, but in a meta that rewards riding high fastballs and hammer-boring breaking balls, Bitsko had the edge.
Like any other year, the 2021 MLB Draft features prospects that excel on the data side of things. At the plate, Benny Montgomery is the loudest example. You’ll hear about his plus power, double-plus speed and double-plus arm… but the data behind his tools backs it up. Benny generates immense impact momentum and barrel speed. His ground force is also among the best in class. I won’t dive too deep into the weeds on Montgomery, because those who follow the draft recognize what an outlier he is. Instead, let’s focus on three hitters you may not be as familiar with and why they may surprise you with how high they go on July 10.
Harry Ford
Ford has been a mainstay for some time now in first round projections but I’m of the belief he’s going to come off the board earlier than many anticipate. Ford is a rare blend of athleticism, power, and performance. While he may not possess the prototypical frame you see from a big league star, he more than makes up for it with explosion and twitch.
Let’s start with the numbers. Ford’s approach is arguably the best in the entire 2021 class. Over the showcase circuit last summer he posted a 19-percent whiff rate and a 17-percent chase rate. Those numbers are not only impressive, but in a COVID-manipulated year where many players found themselves fighting rust for much of the season, Ford’s numbers really shine. Any high schooler who can post sub-20-percent whiff and chase lines against premier pitching should immediately get your attention. Not to mention Ford has a power-profile. It’s one thing if a slap-hitter is posting this sort of performance. It’s another if a guy is hitting bombs and showing an elite approach.
When Ford attacked a baseball, the results were noteworthy as well. At every event, his launch angle averages sat between 15 and 30 degrees. His exit velos were consistently over 90mph, peaking at 102.1 and his hard-hit rates also eclipsed most of his peers. In total, we’re talking about a kid who not only swung at the right pitches, but did serious damage when doing so.
His athletic testing backs up said damage too. Ford’s registered barrel speed was 80.8mph last summer, ranking in the 98.9th percentile of the 2021 class. His hand speed and impact momentum (a force generated when taking into account the weight of the bat and its speed at impact) both also ranked north of the 98th percentile for his class as well. His 60-yard dash time suggests a plus runner. His 10-yard split time suggests a plus athlete with lateral mobility and elite twitch. Everything about the profile screams star potential. The only thing arguably holding Ford back may be his 5-foot-10 frame and prep catcher demographic. But this kid could play centerfield immediately. The measurable traits and athletic markers confirm that. He’s a special player.
Across five months and several events, Ford ran a .290/.452/.548 slash with 2 homers. He walked nine times and punched out just six times. For my money, Ford may represent the best combination of ceiling and floor in the draft, up there with Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer.
Lonnie White
It’s not of often you come across a three-sport star with the type of offensive profile White offers to teams this year. At 6-foot-3, 205 pounds, he’s a fully-loaded block of muscle with the power and burst to really impact a baseball. And that was on full display last summer.
There wasn’t one single player who registered a harder hit baseball than White in 2020 at the high school level. At Area Code Games, White hit a ball 113.5 mph off Bloomington, Indiana righty Luke Hayden, another legitimate draft arm. The ball traveled 421-feet to dead centerfield for a no-doubt homer. That exit velocity was comfortably the hardest hit ball on TrackMan fields last summer. That includes all of the major showcase events, as well as the World Wood Bat Association World Championship.
But it’s not the pure strength and power that makes White noteworthy here. We’re talking about a guy who dedicates his time to football, basketball and baseball. He’s not even fully invested in the sport yet. And still, despite the fact, he’s got one of the better approaches at the plate you can find.
Across 38 plate appearances and close to 140 pitches seen last summer, White posted a .294/.368/.529 slash with 2 homers, 2 doubles and 6 singles. He struck out just five times, good for a 13-percent K-rate. He posted a 25-percent whiff rate and a 23-percent chase rate. Again, pretty darn good.
His average exit velocity exceeded 100mph at two events. In fact, at Area Code Games, of the five balls he put in play, four of those exit velocities exceeded 95mph. His average launch angle for that event was roughly 9-degrees. In short, White absolutely annihilated baseballs.
Tearing White away from his commitment to Penn State to play football won’t come cheap, but I think you’re talking about a kid with serious untapped potential here. It very well could be an average-to-above average hit tool with prodigious raw power. White makes a lot of sense in the first round based off the sample we have.
Michael Robertson
The real sleeper of this class may be Venice, Florida outfielder Michael Robertson. Robertson, like Ford and White, generates unbelievable power from his frame. At 6-foot-1, 175 pounds, he’s not the biggest cat in the world, but he’s wound tight with the ability to explode and separate.
Robertson wasn’t a great performer on the showcase circuit last summer, but it may not be entirely his fault. I think we’re talking about a guy here who just desperately needs a swing change. I’m not sure Robertson knows what he’s capable of doing to a baseball.
His athletic testing tells the story. With a max barrel speed of 82.4mph, Robertson generates more bat speed than, well, literally almost every other player in his class. He sits in the 99.2nd percentile. Even more impressive, He generates 53.4 G’s of force with his hands, good for the 99.3rd percentile of his class. That all leads to an impact momentum score of 31, again ranking in the 99th percentile.
The problem here is Robertson may think he fits a slasher archetype. He really lets the ball travel deep into the zone before making contact, and his launch angles at events generally sit closer to -15 degrees. He hits the ball on the ground, the other way quite a bit. His attack angle is noticeably flat, even swinging directly down on the ball at times. If Robertson were to put a bigger focus on pulling the ball and generating line drives and lift, I think he could transform into an entirely different animal overnight.
The ceiling here is substantial. Robertson might be an 80-grade runner. Not only that, the power he generates on force plates in athletic testing ranks at the very top of his class. We’re talking about a guy here with incredible explosion in his muscle fibers. He may be just as tooled up as Montgomery, but he’s a few, admittedly considerable, tweaks away from unlocking substantial upside.
We’ll dive into prep pitchers last this week and jump onto the college side next week.