Scouting is a comprehensive exercise. As the years go by and organizations are privy to more and more complex data, the art of scouting can get muddy. It seems gone are the days of judging a player purely off his measurables, his actions and discernable abilities as perceived by the naked eye. Sure, that’s where we start. We want to see how the body operates, how it performs against comparable competition and where it could project moving forward. But after those boxes have been checked, big data has its say.
It can be difficult differentiating and ranking players of the same archetype with similar skillsets. For example, in 2020, you look at Nick Bitsko and Jarred Kelley. Both considered in the public space as reasonably premier draft prospects. Both could run the fastball into the upper-90s and both possessed big, durable starting pitcher frames. But they were different in a few critical areas.
Bitsko featured a high-efficiency four seam fastball with plus spin and highly optimized spin direction. His induced vertical break would sit north of 19 inches. Bitsko also featured a high-spin breaking ball. While Kelley could run it up into the high-90s as well, his fastball metrics weren’t quite as exciting and he lacked feel for a good breaking ball. In fact, Kelley never consistently showed the ability to really rip through a baseball and create high spin at all. He did have a better changeup than Bitsko, but in a meta that rewards riding high fastballs and hammer-boring breaking balls, Bitsko had the edge.
Like any other year, the 2021 MLB Draft features prospects that excel on the data side of things. This year, Gage Jump is the is the loudest example. You’ll hear about his riding fastball, low release, flat approach angle and tunneling curveball… his arsenal is built for the modern meta. I won’t dive too deep into the weeds on Jump, because those who follow the draft recognize what an outlier he is. Instead, let’s focus on three other pitchers you may not be as familiar with and why they may surprise you with how high they go on July 10.
Peter Heubeck
Heubeck doesn’t get the headlines guys like Chase Petty, Andrew Painter and Jackson Jobe do, but if you’re looking for an arm that has unique stuff, he’s your guy.
At 6-foot-2, 175 pounds, Heubeck doesn’t have an imposing presence on the mound quite yet. He’s got long levers, sloping shoulders and a high waist. It’s a good frame to add weight, and frankly, scouts expected to see the Baltimore, Maryland righty closer to 190 pounds this spring. He didn’t pack on that mass, but there’s no reason to believe it’s not possible.
For now, Heubeck is primarily a two-pitch guy. It’s a fastball-curveball haymaker combo that induces a ton of swing and miss. The heater sat 91.6 mph at Area Code Games last summer, touching 93.2 mph. Where the velocity is average, the underlying metrics behind the pitch are unreal. Heubeck averaged 2540 RPM on his fastball at Area Code Games. The spin efficiency was nearly perfect over 130 fastballs last summer, generating an average of 22.7 inches of induced vertical break. Top-of-the-scale, elite, elite riding action.
The curveball is just as impressive and projects a plus pitch at the next level. It’s a big, power breaking ball that touched close to 80 mph, more often than not settling in closer to 78 mph. He averaged -17.28 inches of induced vertical breaking on the hammer, again, top-of-the-scale type movement.
The fastball-curveball combo is reminiscent of Justin Verlander.
Strangely, Heubeck’s feel for spin on the breaking ball is a little less outlandish, settling in closer to 2400 RPM. A breaking ball averaging less spin than a pitcher’s fastball is almost unheard of. I’d expect Heubeck to develop the ability to rip through the curveball with more voracity as he ages.
He also mixes in a changeup, though it lags behind his two primary weapons.
There’s plenty of reason to believe Heubeck is going to add big velo. His lead leg block is incredibly strong and the separation he generates is impressive. If he adds strength and weight, you could be looking at a kid throwing 97 with a devastating, wipeout curveball. Committed to Wake Forest, Heubeck will be in good hands regardless of whether he goes pro.
Tanner McDougal
While Heubeck is getting first and second round chatter, McDougal is still a relative unknown at the top of the draft. Like Heubeck, he’ll make his money with the fastball.
Only averaging 90.8 mph last summer, McDougal’s heater sat at 2500 RPM with big ride. He averaged close to 19 inches of induced vertical break over 132 pitches. McDougal is a 6-foot-6, 210-pound 18-year-old with very little professional development in his upbringing. This kid is going to add strength and will throw harder in due time. He shows good repeatability, rhythm and balance on the mound. That’s not exactly common in pitchers his size.
The curveball and changeup are his primary secondaries and they’re both pretty impressive.
The bender is a super-high efficiency breaking ball with some hard sweeping action. He rips through it at 2832 RPM and generates -11.7 inches of induced vertical break. This curveball shape mirroring off the reasonably efficient fastball shape can be a nightmare on hitters. You’re talking about a two-pitch mix with serious tunneling and a 30-inch differential.
The changeup is also a really good offering. He kills spin really well, imposing 1500 RPM on average on the cambio. His release is, once again, very high efficiency, destroying lift. The 5.22 inches of induced vertical break is already above average, but when you couple that off 19 inches of induced vertical break on the fastball, it fits into a killer trio of pitches so long as he can deploy these three pitches in any count.
The arsenal is kind of similar to someone like Zack Greinke.
Roman Kimball
Point blank, Kimball is the unicorn of the draft. If you’re looking for someone with totally outlandish metrics, he’s your guy.
Kimball is the high school version of Jack Leiter in terms of what it looks like to a hitter. His vertical approach angle is just about as flat as they come for a traditional over-the-top pitcher. From the time the ball leaves his hand to the center of the strike zone, Kimball’s fastball has an approach angle of -4 degrees. It’s similar to Leiter. It’s identical to Jacob DeGrom. It’s identical to Gerrit Cole. It’s identical to Trevor Bauer. That’s not to say Kimball will see even an ounce of that sort of success at the next level, but it is a building block. Freddy Peralta is the only starting pitcher in Major League Baseball with an approach angle flatter than -4 degrees. DeGrom, Cole and Bauer are the only other starting pitchers at -4 degrees.
Importantly, Kimball’s fastball is also very high efficiency averaging north of 19 inches of induced vertical break. For reference, Bauer averages 19.9 inches of IVB, Cole averages 17.9 inches of IVB, while DeGrom averages 16.7 inches of IVB.
Kimball’s fastball, especially with added velocity, has 99th percentile shape. It’s got above average spin as well.
He averaged 91.6 mph on his heater at Area Code Games, peaking at 93.8 mph. He’s been up closer to 95 mph at other events. At 5-foot-11, 175 pounds, Kimball doesn’t have a huge frame, so like Leiter and Bauer, he’ll need to optimize everything about his delivery to get the most of his potential. You’d certainly like to see him add size and mass if he has any chance of holding up to the rigors of starting pitching at the big league level.
The performances he put on last summer support the data we see. Kimball’s fastball produced a whiff rate of 60 percent in 2020. That’s across Area Code Games, WWBA, MLB Prospect Development Pipeline and a fourth, smaller event. You’d be hard-pressed to find another high school pitcher with a bigger whiff rate than Kimball at showcase events on their fastball. It’s truly an elite, top shelf fastball shape.
He also works in a curveball that is average more often than not. Pretty solid shape, solid spin rates with fringy command. Right now he’s a two-pitch guy, but you’re looking for something unique in scouting and Kimball is as unique as they come.
We’ll dive into college hitters and college pitchers next week! Stay tuned.