With two months to go until the 2021 MLB Draft, it’s a good opportunity to reevaluate the 2021 talent and forecast how July’s draft may play out.
It should be noted mock drafts are always quite the crapshoot, especially this early. But there are some things starting to show into focus. We’re getting a better feel for where cross-checkers and scouting directors are spending their time . We have continuously chatted with scouts, supervisors and industry personnel on which players are improving their stock and certainly use that information to help forecast what’s to come.
57 days is a long time and much can change.
Some of these picks were made at the direction and insight of folks inside big league scouting organizations, and some were not. But with two months in front of us before the 2021 MLB Draft, you can be sure teams are getting a better idea of their targets come July.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Dallas Jesuit
While the presumptive Vandy Boys 1-2 Punch™ has been the public favorite at the top of the 2021 draft, we think the Pirates fancy Dallas Jesuit shortstop Jordan Lawlar with their first pick. Ben Cherington and Co. are famously tight-lipped about their plans in most drafts, so nothing is certain. Lawlar is a potential 5-tool player with exceptional ability across his scouting report and an up-the-middle profile. The hit tool projects plus with at least above average power in the stick, maybe plus. He’s shown a strong approach with the ability to handle pitches in all four quadrants. Lawlar uses all fields and is an inquisitive, cognitive hitter with an advanced baseball mind, often besting the opposition staying one step ahead of their plan on how to pitch him. If there are any warts in his offensive game, it’s that he’s had periods of trying to do too much, expanding the zone to get the big hit. Though even those issues have cleaned themselves up this spring. On defense, Lawlar has quick-twitch, athletic actions on the dirt and can make all the routine plays, as well as some extraordinary plays to his left and coming in on the ball. He’s a sure-bet to stick at shortstop where we think he projects favorably to a player like Xander Bogaerts.
2. Texas Rangers
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
Folks, Jack Leiter is human after all. After an unbelievable start to the season, Leiter has fallen back to earth the past three starts. In that three-game span, Leiter has failed to pitch past the fifth inning twice, giveng up eight home runs, and has walking ten batters in 15.1 innings. So, what’s the problem? First and foremost, Leiter’s command hasn’t been what it once was in this span. He’s left the fastball high in the zone at times, especially when he’s behind in the count, and he’s hung breaking balls in the heart, causing SEC hitters to do damage. He’s also reaching an innings mark he’s never explored. Last year, Leiter only threw 15.2 innings and only averaged ~60 innings in his junior and senior years at Delbarton. He was a late scratch against Alabama in May, Vanderbilt noting “workload management” as the reason. It’s an interesting development for the top arm in this draft, though the arsenal is still exemplary. The fastball is still electric, though velocity has been primarily 91-94 MPH recently. The curveball and slider still have potential for above-average or better, though the change-up needs refinement. All in all, we still like the chances Leiter is the first arm off the board.
3. Detroit Tigers
Marcelo Mayer, shortstop, Eastlake
The second of the “Big Two” prep shortstops in the 2021 class, Marcelo Mayer brings a different skillset to the dish than Lawlar, but represents a tantalizing antithesis to that of his counterpart. At 6-foot-3, Mayer has a longer frame with long levers that he uses profitably across his profile. At the plate, it’s a cut built for the modern game. There’s organic loft in Mayer’s swing with an all-fields approach. In fact, the Chula Vista product was a bit opposite-field-heavy in early 2020 but rebuilt his offensive game to include big pull-side pop. Some now project a plus hitter with plus power, a profile that can be awfully tough to find at shortstop. Mayer is still growing with a body begging for more muscle and mass. Once in a pro system and after adding 10-15 pounds of muscle and explosion, the offensive package could be truly substantial. On the dirt, most believe Mayer will stick at shortstop, though added weight does open the door for a move to third base. He has buttery hands and makes all the routine plays look like a breeze. One of the quieter defenders moving to his right in recent memory. Mayer’s long body glides about the dirt with fluidity. He may never be a standout plus defender, but he’s sure to bring peace of mind to the position for his future fanbase. The Tigers have been linked to Kumar Rocker as well, but keep an eye on Jackson Jobe here...
4. Boston Red Sox
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
Say what you will about the occasional velo dip, Rocker has arguably been the most consistent performer on any mound in 2021. He’s been 92-95 MPH with his fastball, topping out at 96 MPH of late. A small tick behind the 98s he was touching in March. Command has come and gone during starts, specifically with the fastball, but he’s been a grinder and posted strong box scores almost every night out. The secondaries in Rocker’s arsenal are also awfully impressive, particularly the slider. It’s a true 70-grade breaking ball with extreme tilt, specifically vertically. The cutter may not be far behind. He’s been trying to throw more change-ups, though he’s still got some work to do with feel for the pitch. Boston certainly will have a tough decision to make here with this being the potential starting point for where Henry Davis could go. There’s also Jackson Jobe to consider. However, Rocker is a steady performer with a premium body; a guy that could eventually see a big league mound in 2023 or even sooner.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall
There may not be a player in the entire country who did more for his draft stock than Jobe in the last calendar year. The Heritage Hall blue-chip has everything teams dream on when it comes to prep arms. He’s extremely athletic, equipped with sound, repeatable mechanics and comes fully loaded with an arsenal that would make a B-52 Bomber blush. The fastball has been clocked up to 99, but routinely sits 94-97. The slider bores into the zone at over 3000 RPM, exceeding 3350 RPM last summer; truly elite spin. He mixes in a changeup that has developed from a below average offering to a potential solid average weapon, especially against lefty bats. Jobe is far and away the best mix of current stuff and projectability amongst the prep arms in this class. There are teams interested in Jobe prior to the 5th pick in the draft, so Baltimore’s interest in guys like Kumar Rocker, Brady House, Harry Ford and Henry Davis should certainly be monitored here as we approach July. If Jobe falls out of the top five, we keep hearing he won’t fall very far further.
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Henry Davis, Catcher, Louisville
In a year where it’s easy to point out warts among the college bats, Davis stands out as being one of the more reliably safe picks in the class. That said, he certainly doesn’t lack ceiling. At the plate, it’s an extremely advanced, mature approach with a line drive oriented swing and double-plus brute strength. Davis figures to hit for a plus average and take a generous helping of walks as a pro whilst avoiding running up high strikeout rates.He couples that with plus raw power that he should be able to use most of. Davis is ultra-physical and comes with an edge and fire to his game that shouldn’t be discounted in the “pros” section of your venn diagram. He’s a clubhouse and dugout icon and should help rally a team and it’s staff similar to how Mike Zunino and Salvador Perez are revered. With guys like Blake Walston, Bryce Jarvis and Slade Cecconi on the way, the Diamondbacks will be in good hands with Davis running the show.
7. Kansas City Royals
Brady House, Shortstop, Winder-Barrow HS
Arguably the most famous name in the 2021 class, House has been a guy to know since he was 15 years old. It’s an extremely physical body with tons of present strength. The raw power is considerable grading out plus or better from everyone we talk to. Defensively, he has a pretty reasonable shot to stick at shortstop as a pro, though if he lands with the Royals, a move to third base may come out of necessity with Bobby Witt Jr. in the fold. The result may be something akin to Matt Chapman; a premier defender at the position with a huge arm. The bat is where scouts seem split. The power is undeniable, but hit grades range anywhere from well below average to solid average as a pro. Some believe House will be a .230 hitter while others opine he’s a future .270-.280 hitter. If it’s the latter, considering the power, House is a superstar in the making. The former would suggest a player similar to Mark Reynolds; a career .235 hitter who runs into close to 300 bombs. The Royals are in on a number of guys with the 7th pick and may ultimately end up with whomever falls into their lap. Some believe the top seven players in this class are a cut above the rest, thus the “wait and see” nature of their draft slot.
8. Colorado Rockies
Kahlil Watson, Shortstop, Wake Forest HS
North Carolina was one of the states that played it cautiously with their season this year, as they are only two weeks into their season. Our last view of Watson consisted of loud contact and impressive pull-side pop that will certainly play at the next level. Despite the small frame at 5-foot-11, 170 pounds, Watson is able to generate impressive bat speed thanks to elite hip/shoulder separation, a big factor in Watson’s tremendous power generation. It’s a sweet left-handed swing that has some of the most powerful bat-to-ball skills in this class, though he can get a little anxious and expand the zone at times. Watson has big league instincts in the dirt, whether he eventually ends up at shortstop or second base. It’s an electric profile. Plenty of teams at the top of this draft love his toolset, now it’s just a matter of performing night in and night out.
9. Los Angeles Angels
Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)
Bachman has seen a meteoric rise this year after his offseason training has really shown out on the diamond. The Angels, maybe more than anyone, could use some juiced infused into their system. Bachman has a repertoire that could play in a big league staff today. The fastball/slider combo is one of the nastiest one-two punches in this draft. It’s comfortably a plus, probably double-plus heater that sits in the high-90’s with plenty of run. Bachman has touched triple digits on a number of occasions this season, up to 101. The slider is just as nasty. It’s a two-plane monster that Bachman can manipulate how he pleases. It’s generally into the upper-80’s, touching 91. Excellent command of this pitch makes it tough for hitters to barrel up. The change-up is his third offering, though it lacks feel and can be inconsistent. He’s been working his way back into form after missing some time early in the season, though Miami has loosened the reins on him lately. Bachman could very well follow the Garrett Crochet route and find himself in the Angels bullpen by year’s end. Ball is in your court, Perry.
10. New York Mets
Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
It should come as no surprise the Mets are targeting advanced college pitchers in the 2021 draft after their recent surge for big athleticism and upside in recent years. Indeed, a couple years ago, the Mets farm lacked impact, but with a restocked pocket of up-the-middle talent and prep arms, word is New York is looking to go for more “sure things” this go around, especially with a lengthy competitive window conceivably opening. Madden has been one of the most consistent college arms all year and possesses a good blend of size, athleticism and upside the Mets should covet. The fastball is a plus offering, while the breaking ball is above average more often than not, flashing plus. Both project plus pitches by the time he debuts. Madden has struggled to consistently find feel for his changeup in 2021, though with an emphasis on developing the pitch should help him reach his mid-rotation ceiling. There is some reliever risk given the reliance on a two-pitch mix right now, but a majority of the scouts we’ve talked to believe he has the blueprint of a future big league starter that can carry heavy innings. Ryan Cusick and Gunnar Hoglund certainly make sense here as well, though Hoglund tore his UCL this season and Cusick’s year has been inconsistent at times.
11. Washington Nationals
Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
Mike Rizzo and loud, projectable college pitchers. Name a more iconic duo. I’ll wait. The Nationals have a type. There’s no doubt about that. Cade Cavalli, Jackson Rutledge, Cole Henry, Seth Romero… it’s just what they like to do at the top of most drafts. Considering it’s a rather paltry year for college hitters, we think they’ll go back to campus and grab another arm that fits their blueprint, and this time around that’s Ryan Cusick. A big, tall, physical righty, Cusick brings the best fastball in the class to the Nationals. The Demon Deacon routinely sits 95-97, touching 101. He couples that with a hammer curveball he likes to throw in the low 80s, as well as a below average changeup he’s still finding feel for. For a 6-foot-6 righty, Cusick has considerable athleticism on the mound, and works downhill quite well. There’s some refinement ahead of him in terms of the fastball shape as well as consistency with the breaking ball, but the final product could end up looking something like Tyler Glasnow, and that’s an arm the Nationals could lean on in their pursuit of another ring.
12. Seattle Mariners
Harry Ford, Catcher, North Cobb
The Mariners seem to be targeting hitters on the scouting trail this spring and who can blame them with a farm already fully jacked with pitching talent. It’s a down year for college talent, so we see Seattle dipping into the prep ranks for Harry Ford. The North Cobb backstop has answered any questions scouts have had on his ability to stick behind the plate this spring, but it may be moot. The bat and athleticism will play anywhere on the diamond and will ultimately push his development track. There’s a potential for an above average hitter here with above average power and plus run times. Ford has an above average-to-plus arm that will play anywhere on the field and his twitchiness and explosion should make for an above average defender anywhere on the diamond. Some scouts have questioned the lower hand setup and whether it will work at the pro level, but believers see a Craig Biggio Swiss Army Knife packed into a Marcell Ozuna type of offensive weapon. The Mariners could go a number of directions here, but we’re reasonably certain a hitter will come off the board.
13. Philadelphia Phillies
Sal Frelick, Outfielder, Boston College
If there is anyone on that Boston College squad that has excelled this year, it’s Frelick. There’s a lot to love about the package he brings to the table. It’s a short, compact swing from the left side with impressive bat speed. He’s a 70-grade runner, a potential plus defender out in center field, and has enough arm to hold runners in place. Frelick has hit all season long, and he simply doesn’t strike out. Scouts believe the power ceiling and total star upside may be limited, ultimately pushing him to this point in the draft. He’s cemented himself as one of the premier college bats in a class, a demographic that is several lacking in quality. For the Phillies, a lack of impact outfield bats at the top of their farm system allow Frelick a quick path to the bigs. While there’s a chance that he goes higher than 13th overall, we’re sure the Phillies would be pretty happy to have him fall into their lap here.
14. San Francisco Giants
Matt McLain, Shortstop, UCLA
Like many teams in the early teens, the Giants are sitting, waiting, dealing with a lot of variables when determining who they’ll select. San Francisco is surely in a wait-and-see mode, anxious to see if any of the top talents will tumble a bit into their lap, but one thing remains clear; the Giants draft high-character, clubhouse leaders that will not only contribute on the field, but set the tone for a winning culture. Joey Bart, Hunter Bishop and Patrick Bailey all received extremely high marks in their pre-draft interviews in terms of accountability and elevating those around them. Matt McLain fits that bill. A middle-of-the-diamond player, McLain profiles at shortstop, second base or centerfield and should be a reasonably quick mover through the Giants system. He’s an above average hitter with fringe-average power, though his 70-grade speed and discipline at the plate allow the bat to play up a tick. There’s a number of players involved here, so the Giants will likely have a “bucket” of players on their board on July 11 and will pivot accordingly.
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
After a stellar start to the year, Hoglund has run into some tough luck. He’s out for the year and is scheduled to have Tommy John surgery. However, we don’t believe he’ll fall too far. Hoglund is a “control” arm, a pitcher that has a track record of throwing strikes. Hoglund also saw a big uptick in stuff this year, with three pitches that could be above-average or better at the next level. Scouts are convinced he’s a lock to start at the big league level, and that floor is an easy enough profile to sell. For the Brewers, why not take the gamble? The system lacks top tier pitching after not selecting a single arm in 2020 and they’re a data savvy organization that will appreciate Hoglund’s tunneling characteristics and above average spin rates. He immediately becomes the team’s best pitching prospect besting Ethan Small. It’s a match made in heaven.
16. Miami Marlins
Joshua Baez, Outfielder, Dexter Southfield
Joshua Baez is among the most physically gifted players in this entire class and draws body comparisons to the likes of Jose Canseco and Aaron Judge. It’s bottled violence on the field. It’s potentially 70-grade raw power with a 70-grade arm in right field. He’s currently a plus runner, though most believe that will settle in closer to above average as a pro. Baez’s hit tool will dictate how quickly he moves through a system, and the Marlins are among the best in baseball at developing young, impressionable bats. He’s a potential future middle-of-the-order stick with 25+ homer pop should the hit tool buoy at a level that allows the power to play. The Marlins are in on plenty of talent at pick 16, including guys like Jordan Wicks, Chase Petty, Harry Ford and Peyton Stovall, so anything could happen here.
17. Cincinnati Reds
Bubba Chandler, RHP, North Oconee
If there’s one team that likes good clay, it’s Cincinnati, and Bubba Chandler is about as malleable as they come. A sublime athlete, Chandler is a two-spot superstar and a do-it-all kind of player. He was the starting quarterback for North Oconee when they won the state title his sophomore year, but gave up football his senior year to focus on baseball. For that reason, most believe he will forego his commitment to Clemson in favor of pro ball. On the diamond, he’s a super-talented switch-hitting shortstop, though most teams fancy Chandler a starting pitcher. On the bump he’s been up to 97 on a number of occasions. He’s got a true four-pitch mix with the slider, curveball and changeup, all of which have flashed above average or better. He’s got an extremely quick arm on the mound and oozes athleticism. Most scouts believe he’s nowhere close to realizing his potential. Chandler may end up a righty sitting 95-98 with two plus secondaries as a pro. The Rockies, Mets, Angels, Nationals, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Marlins have all done a good bit of due diligence on Chandler, so don’t be surprised to see him popped prior to this pick.
18. St. Louis Cardinals
Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland
The Cardinals have been all over Chase Petty for some time now, and should he fall this far, it feels like a match made in heaven. Randy Flores and St. Louis generally like to sit back, relax, and see what type of premier talent falls into their laps. It happened with Nolan Gorman. It happened with Jordan Walker. Petty becomes next in line. The Cards aren’t afraid of the hard-throwing prep righty demographic, they only see the pure upside, and it’s mammoth. Petty wards off the notions of a volatile arm with prodigious athleticism and sound mechanics that would play out of a big league bullpen right now. He’s routinely 97-99 touching 102 on a number of occasions. He’s got a 4-seam and a 2-seam fastball depending on how he’s looking to shape the fastball for different hitters. He couples that with a hellish 70-grade slider with elite horizontal tilt. The entire arsenal isn’t too dissimilar from Dustin May, but he’s coming at hitters from a lower release and more extension than his contemporary. Petty really improved his command this spring and it’s elevated his draft stock considerably. He’s in play as high as the top ten, but admittedly, not all teams will be in on this sort of profile.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
Colton Cowser, Outfielder, Sam Houston State
The Toronto Blue Jays have been in search of consistent outfield play for some time, and while it appears they have found that in 2021, it’s important they restock their system with players who can take over when tough roster decisions must be made on Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Cowser is an advanced hitter who many tab as a big league regular. The Sam Houston State product does everything well, though maybe not exceeding in any one particular area. He’s an above average hitter with at least fringe-average power and at least an average run tool. He projects to shift into a corner as a pro where his above average arm will play well. Cowser draws comparisons to former Blue Jays all star outfielder Michael Saunders. One of the more data-driven teams in amateur scouting, the Blue Jays could instead elect to go for the upside of a guy like Benny Montgomery, Joe Mack or Michael Robertson here, though they’re rather tight-lipped entering most drafts.
20. New York Yankees
Benny Montgomery, Outfielder, Red Land HS
Frankly, given the helium surrounding his name, Montgomery may not even be available to the Yankees at 20, but in this scenario, we’ve got Damon Oppenheimer and New York reaching for as much upside as possible. We’ve said it since June, Montgomery may have the highest pure ceiling of any one player in the entire 2021 class. He’s equipped with 70-grade speed, a 70-grade arm and projects to play a 70-grade corner outfield should he have to slide over. The raw power and bat speed is at least plus, though most would argue that too grades out double-plus. The questions surrounding Montgomery revolve around the hit tool and the swing. It’s drastically improved over the last calendar year, no longer quite the hitchy divisive cut it once was. Regardless, he’s hit at every showcase, and that includes hitting big velo and advanced breaking stuff. Sometimes you stop asking questions and trust the athlete. If Montgomery can be an average hitter, he’s likely a 20+ homer guy who will add plus value in the field. Should he develop into a .275+ hitter and allow more of the raw power to play, given the whole package, he’s a superstar in the making. Pretty much every team in the 14 through 19 range likes Benny, so he could go off the board absolutely anywhere.
21. Chicago Cubs
Joe Mack, Catcher, Williamsville East
The state of New York is one of the last states to get it’s high school baseball season started, so don’t be surprised to see Joe Mack off the board before pick 21 and the Cubs. The Indians, Blue Jays, Mariners, Reds and Cardinals have all made it a point of emphasis to track Mack’s progress over the winter, so once ball gets going, if he hits, he could rise. Mack represents one of the better bets to stick behind the plate as a pro. He moves exceptionally well behind the plate and creates a big target for pitchers, blocking balls in the dirt quite well. He’s also one of the better pitch framers in the class, though that skillset may become moot with robo-umps in the coming years. Mack compares favorably to Tyler Soderstrom from a year ago, though most scouts think the hit tool is half-a-tick lower while his defensive chops are a cut above. It’s plus raw power with the potential for an above average hit tool that works well to all fields. Mack is in play anywhere from pick 11 to the end of the first round, but the Cubs and their push for youth/ceiling certainly fits the bill.
22. Chicago White Sox
Wes Kath, Third Baseman, Desert Mountain
The Chicago White Sox are all over the board this year in terms of who they’ve been out to see most, but we’re certainly catching a theme; prep bats with substantial upside. Kath brings a physicality to the plate that is tough to match in the class on the prep side. It’s a well-leveraged lefty swing with plenty of present loft and plus power projection. He takes his walks and doesn’t expand the zone too much. Most tab Kath a future solid average hitter with 20+ homer juice. His future home is almost certainly third base where he looks like a fringe average defender at worst. We’ve thrown Matt Carpenter comparisons on Kath for some time now and we’re not veering off that course anytime soon. Others that make sense here include guys like Izaac Pacheco, Peyton Stovall and potentially some draft sleepers like Cody Schrier or Maxwell Muncy. All that being said, don’t be surprised if a college arm really blossoms over the final few months of the season and is seen as a value play by Rick Hahn. Guys like Will Bednar and Matt Mikulski have a lot of helium.
23. Cleveland Indians
Will Taylor, Outfielder, Dutch Fork
If Will Taylor isn’t the best athlete in the entire 2021 class, he’s close. A two-sport star and distinguished wide receiver recruit to the University of Clemson, most expect Taylor will go pro in baseball though he won’t come at a discount. Taylor is among the fastest players in the class. He’s an 80-grade runner who will assuredly wreak havoc on the base paths as a pro. Taylor has good bat-to-ball skills though, and he should hit for average, though he’ll likely never be a force in the slugging column. Scott Barnsby has made a point to focus on up-the-middle athleticism and Taylor certainly checks that box and then some. Cleveland has seemingly been searching for a permanent fixture in centerfield for some time, and while Taylor may be a ways away, he’s a pretty good bet to fill that void at some point down the line. A lot of guys make sense here, and Cleveland is one of the more revered clubs for going into each draft with a definitive plan and executing it top to bottom.
24. Atlanta Braves
Peyton Stovall, Second Baseman, Haughton
Stovall is in play all over the board. The Dodgers have sent seemingly everyone in the scouting department to see him, while the Brewers, DBacks, Mariners, Cardinals and Tigers have been all over him as well. We’ve got him going to the Braves, an organization severely lacking in up-the-middle talent on the dirt. If you’re buying Stovall, you’re buying the bat. It’s a plus hit tool with a loaded, lofty left-handed swing that generates solid bat speed. Some project a potential .280 hitter with 25 home run power, a player similar to Kyle Seager, Todd Walker or Jason Kipnis. He will almost certainly immediately make the move to second base in pro ball where his soft hands and average arm will play up. The Braves have been connected to several prep outfielders as well, so don’t be surprised to hear Benny Montgomery, Joshua Baez, Jay Allen or someone like Malakhi Knight this high.
25. Oakland Athletics
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
The Oakland Athletics have not taken a pitcher in the first round since 2016. The past few years have consisted of primarily infield bats and last year, Tyler Soderstrom fell into their lap. Due to limited upside and lacking high-end stuff, Wicks could very well find himself sliding a tad bit in the first round, but it’s tough to envision Wicks not being a first round arm. Wicks has had himself a very solid year for Kansas State, with 96 strikeouts to 21 walks across 72.1 innings and a 3.48 ERA. He’s got the best changeup in the class, a Bugs Bunny cambio with big deception and depth. He’s been primarily 91-94 throughout the year and he’s featured a slider and curveball, with the slider being the better of the two offerings. Could Wicks go higher than this? Absolutely. But we doubt he falls past 25.
26. Minnesota Twins
Izaac Pacheco, SS/3B, Friendswood
The Twins have been no stranger to going after upside on the dirt, particularly those players with big, big carrying tools. In 2019, the team went after Chula Vista 3B Keoni Cavaco and we’ve got them going a similar route in 2021 with Pacheco. Since taking over the gig in 2016, Scouting Director Sean Johnson has never selected a pitcher in the first round and we believe that continues. Outside of Cavaco, Minnesota doesn’t have a ton of options at the hot corner coming through the system. Cavaco himself has struggled to this point, so shoring up the future on the dirt may be a priority. Pacheco is a power-over-hit slugger with a big, strong frame and immense bat speed. Most scouts believe he’s a 45+ hitter with the potential for plus juice. He’s likely an average defensive third baseman with an above average arm. Alex Binelas is another important name to watch here as he continues to recover his draft stock after a brutal start to the year. Eastern Illinois infielder Trey Sweeney is one more name to monitor...
27. San Diego Padres
Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian
Andrew Painter falling into the lap of AJ Preller and the San Diego Padres just feels right. The Friars haven’t been shy about going big in the draft and grabbing the presumptive top prep arm entering the 2021 cycle certainly fits that narrative. Painter has been up to 100mph, but generally sits 93-97, though commanding the fastball has been streaky. He brings a firm, hard slider to the table in the mid-80s though that pitch will also come and go. He also features a slurvy curveball and a changeup that’s really had brilliant moments. On paper, Painter has some of the best stuff in the class, though inconsistency has pushed him down later into the first round for some teams. For a 6-foot-7 frame, Painter has remarkable body control, balance and athleticism and repeats his operation very well. He’s advanced enough to work delivery variations into his arsenal to keep hitters off balance. Painter is in play all over the board, as high as 13 to the Phillies, but we think the buck stops here. The Padres could obviously go any number of ways, but they’ve certainly been enthusiastic about high-level preps in recent years.
28. Tampa Bay Rays
Trey Sweeney, IF, Eastern Illinois
All Sweeney has done all year is elevate his profile. He’s gone from a potential mid-round selection to now looking like a very popular option in the Top 50 picks. At least an average hitter with the potential for plus juice, Sweeney’s carrying tool is the bat. The swing itself, particularly the load, is divisive for some scouts, but most believe he’s a mature hitter who gets into a good position to hit for average at the pro level even without a swing change. Sweeney’s exit velos are among the best in the entire college class, though an analytical team like the Rays will want to see his launch angles improve, especially considering his tall, well-leveraged frame. The selling point on Sweeney to the Rays may ultimately be the versatility. He’s a starting shortstop for now, though he’s likely a second baseman or third baseman at the next level, but he absolutely has the athleticism, foot speed and arm strength to handle left field or right field at the next level.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers
Jud Fabian, Outfielder, Florida
Hard to think that at the beginning of the season, Fabian was a projected top five pick in this draft. A brutal start to his season did serious damage to his draft stock, at times looking like a guess hitter. However, it’s as if he has flipped the switch of late. Over the past month, Fabian is hitting at a .400 clip, has only struck out 14 times since April 2nd, and is now tied for second in the NCAA in home runs at 18. A K% that was running close to 40% on the year in early April is now down to 27.7%. In a year with a light college hitting crop, it’s certainly realistic that Fabian finds himself creeping back into the first round, and that’s exactly what we have happening here. The Dodgers are wizards when it comes to developing talent and Fabian could become a legitimate monster in this system with some adjustments to the hit tool.
30. Cincinnati Reds
Jackson Baumeister, RHP, The Bolles
Baumeister continues to push his way further and further and further up boards this spring. He’s another catcher-turned-pitcher who’s seen his physicality and mechanics to huge strides in recent months, and the stuff is following suit. Baumeister now sits 93-95, touching 97 with three distinct secondaries in the slider, curveball and changeup. The slider is his best secondary generally sitting in the 77-80 mph range, though it has more slurvy tendencies than a traditional firm slider. He shows fantastic command and feel for the pitch, locating it glove-side against righties with consistency. It projects a wipeout, plus offering. The changeup lags behind a bit, but does have solid separation and some fading action. His slower, over-the-top curveball is a low-70s offering, mostly used as a get-me-over pitch right now. Given his ascent, we think Baumeister has a decent shot of breaking into day one contention and there’s no better landing spot for his development than the data-centric Reds.
31. Miami Marlins
Adrian Del Castillo, Catcher, Miami
Much like Fabian, Del Castillo was a top of the first round type talent at the beginning of the year. There’s no question that ADC can hit, he’s currently slashing .301/.405/.449 on the year and he continues to show a polished approach at the plate with more walks than strikeouts on the year. However, he’s not showcasing the power potential he had in his first two years in Coral Gables. As of May 11, Del Castillo has only hit three home runs on the year, which has left some scouts perplexed. It’s still a very smooth left-handed swing that produces line drives aplenty, but the power dip is a concern. It would be tough to see ADC fall past the first comp round and for the Marlins, they could use another bat in their system after an all-pitching class in 2020. The bat will ultimately dictate his future defensive position, as there’s still questions about whether or not he stays behind the dish. It’s a chance that Miami would be happy to take.
32. Detroit Tigers
Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
Another arm that has a bunch of helium attached to him is Mississippi State right-hander Will Bednar. It’s a hyper quick arm with a three-pitch arsenal for teams to dream on. The fastball projects as a potential plus pitch, it’s usually 91-94 MPH and he’s topped out at 96 MPH with plenty of ride at the top of the zone. His slider is a high-spin, sweepy menace that’s generally thrown in the low-80’s, topping out at 86 MPH on the year with good command down in the zone. The changeup is an obvious work in progress in the low-80’s; working on his feel for the pitch is an obvious starting point for any ball club that reels him in. He’s held his own in the SEC with a 3.31 ERA across 49 innings and a pristine 80:12 K:BB ratio. You can never have enough pitching in your system and Detroit has been the king of this in recent years. Al Avila loves a big conference starter. You could even throw in the likes of Tommy Mace and Ryan Webb here, among other options.
33. Milwaukee Brewers
Matt Mikulski, LHP, Fordham
Following a 2020 draft where the Brewers elected not to draft a single pitcher, their system is starved for pitching. We’ve got the Brew Crew going with Gunnar Hoglund with their first selection, though considering the questionable health of his arm, we’ve also got them doubling down on the mound with Matt Mikulski. Perhaps no pitcher in college baseball improved their profile more than the Fordham lefty over the last calendar year. He shortened up his arm action, subsequently improving his athleticism on the mound, elevating his “future role” to most scouts, as well as bumping his velocity night in and night out. Mikulski has routinely been 93-95 in most starts this season, touching 97. He features two breaking balls in the slider and curveball, both of which are at least average. The changeup is fringy more often than not, but flashes solid average. He’ll be 23 for the draft, so Mikulski could save Milwaukee some money as a slight under-slot option here as well. Still, most see a big league starter here, one who’s just beginning to tap into what he’s capable of. The Brewers have been in on a lot of pitchers this spring, so guys like Tommy Mace, Bryce Miller, and Ryan Webb all make a lot of sense too.
34. Tampa Bay Rays
Jay Allen, Outfielder, John Carroll Catholic
The physical tools Jay Allen brings to the table cannot be ignored. A 6-foot-3-inch, 200-pound centerfielder, Allen is a double-plus runner who’s added serious thump to the plate after being more of a contact hitter as recent as the summer of 2020. Allen added a ton of strength over the winter and rebuilt his swing to help drive the ball with more authority. An above average hitter, Allen should hit for average as a pro with fringe average, maybe a tick more in the power department. A three-sport star, Allen receives high marks for his athleticism in all facets of the game. He’s got an above average arm and, so long as he doesn’t outgrow the position, should stay in centerfield long-term. Allen reminds some scouts of Austin Jackson in his prime, a valuable asset in the field with the potential to become a strong 2-hitter in any lineup.
35. Cincinnati Reds
Daylen Lile, Outfielder, Trinity HS
There is no question that we are one of the high spots on Lile’s bat. Lile might have the best bat-to-ball skills in this prep class. At every event we saw Lile last summer, all he did was hit and he has continued that trend this spring with the power coming along to boot. It’s likely nothing more than average pop, but it’s certainly promising to see. He is a center fielder as of now, though there’s a likelihood he could have to move to a corner spot due to his arm and inconsistencies with route running. The Louisville commit is local to the Reds as well. Christian Franklin or Alex Binelas could be intriguing options here too.
36. Minnesota Twins
Ethan Wilson, Outfielder, South Alabama
Wilson is another college bat that we had pretty high at the start of the season, but an ankle injury hampered him to begin the year. Fast forward to today and you can certainly make the case Wilson is a first round talent. On March 13th, the batting average sat at .217, but today, he’s improved himself to a .327 clip with an absurdly good 16:26 K:BB ratio in 153 at-bats. He’s only struck out four times (!) since the beginning of April. However, the large power he possesses in his bat has not quite shown up this year. He only has one home run since the beginning of April and has six on the year in total. He projects mostly as a left fielder defensively at the next level. Wilson could very well find himself as the next Twins college outfielder to get popped in the first round joining the likes of Alex Kirilloff, Brent Rooker, and Trevor Larnach.