Week two of the weekly mailbag diving into your questions and providing what information we know. While I (@JoeDoyleMiLB) will be the one writing the piece, this is always a team effort. We’ll all see these questions and provide what insight we can. We all have different industry connections and different regional access, so I’ll be leaning on my team of Ralph (@ProspectJesus), Tyler (@TylerJennings24) and Ian (@FlaSmitty) for their expertise as well.
Good question. Last year, any combination of Emerson Hancock, Asa Lacy and Max Meyer were shuffled at the top of the draft up until the week of the draft. This year, things look a little more firmed up at the top. That said, SEC play is a grind and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Kumar Rocker or Jack Leiter struggle and fall a little bit either.
There’s only three arms that come to mind right away for me as potential dark horses in unseating Rocker/Leiter as the first college arm off the board.
Texas RHP Ty Madden and Ole Miss RHP Gunnar Hoglund certainly check a lot of the boxes in terms of body, track record and stuff. Their fastballs have been up into the upper-90s, and the mechanics are sound. Hoglund has the better command and likely the better slider, but Madden possesses a more complete arsenal.
The sleepers here are Indiana righty McCade Brown and Miami (OH) righty Sam Bachman. These guys have some of the best stuff in the class. Bachman might have two 70-grade pitches in the fastball and the slider, plus a changeup that’s flashed pretty loud in winter side-sessions. Brown has been up to 97 and has the innate ability to spin a baseball at elite levels. Both will need to perform over the course of an entire season, and Bachman specifically will need to show he can stay healthy. He’s missed two weeks with shoulder soreness, though it doesn’t sound serious.
I’ll keep this more nationally-focused, but I think you’ll get the gist either way.
Henry Davis has been the best player in college baseball this season and has answered any questions scouts had for him entering the season. The hit tool is real, and the approach is every bit the tool many anticipated. He’s a surefire catcher at the next level where his athleticism really plays. He still has some work to do receiving and blocking, but he’s shown marked success in both categories.
There’s 4 months to go before the MLB Draft, and ACC play hasn’t even begun. A lot can change between now and then. That said, if the draft were to take place today, I’d have a hard time seeing any scenario where Davis makes it out of the top 7 or 8 picks.
You’re probably right. Colson Montgomery is a pretty popular name is draft circles these days. And for good reason.
Montgomery has a long, premium body with a sweet left-handed swing, similar to someone like Corey Seager at this stage. He generates fantastic bat speed and has good hands and footwork on the dirt. He projects an above average hitter at the next level, with above average power too. He’ll likely outgrow the shortstop position, but profiles very well at third base thanks to a strong arm.
Scouts love Montgomery’s athleticism too. He’s an extremely accomplished prep basketball player as well, and that versatility in different sports is a good thing to evaluators. Montgomery could end up a day one pick by the time July rolls around.
Montgomery has been effusive about his excitement to play for the Hoosiers, but Indiana doesn’t have a rich history of developing high-end big league talent. It would be tough for the the school to hold onto Montgomery if he’s offered big money.
Another good question here. Opitz got a ton of attention in the 2020 MLB Draft, but eventually went unselected when no teams would meet his signing bonus ask. He’s back on the board this season, and his profile hasn’t changed much.
Opitz is one of the, if not the best defensive catcher in the country. He’s got a fantastic throwing arm, and receives the ball as well as anyone in the country. He’s got the frame to stick behind the plate long-term too. That said, Opitz still lacks the punch at the plate big league teams want to see from a first round pick. My inclination is he’s a 45 hit tool with 30 game power. Probably a .240 kind of hitter with 6-10 homer pop.
At this stage, I can’t see Opitz going in the first round, but his name likely gets more traction headed into the third and fourth rounds this July.
Hey Greg! Thanks for the question!
Hartle really went to work this winter in an attempt to bulk up his 6-foot-5 frame. He’s added 25 pounds since last summer and is now comfortably 220 pounds. Hartle hasn’t been throwing at full-bore this winter, recovering in the colder months before ramping back up for the spring.
High school baseball starts back up in late April in North Carolina, so we probably have another month before he’s on the bump. Hartle did just have his appendix removed a few weeks back, so he’s still on the mend from that. If he’s not at 100% by his first game on April 27, he should be shortly thereafter. Hartle was primarily 88-92 last summer, so it’ll be interesting to see if the added strength gets him into that 91-94 range this spring. Either way, he projects to be one of the first prep lefties off the board, and currently fits pretty comfortably in that 20-50 range come July.
This has been a popular question in draft circles over the last 9 months or so. Projecting where Elijah Green and Termarr Johnson would fit into the 2021 class is always a fun exercise.
I suppose it depends on who you ask. Johnson has electric bat speed and a slick glove on the dirt. The body is a powder-keg bulldog frame that’s already really muscled up. He’s probably a second baseman or third baseman at the next level. The bat will likely be Johnson’s carrying tool as a pro.
For me, Johnson would certainly be a first round value right now. At 5-foot-10, evaluators want to see how his body grows and develops over the next 18 months, and that’s understandable. He’d probably fit somewhere in the back-half of the first round in this class, but that’s just hypothesizing on my part.