With spring baseball now in full-swing, it’s a good opportunity to reevaluate the 2021 talent and forecast how July’s draft may play out.
It should be noted mock drafts are always quite the crapshoot, especially this early. The goal here is more-so to layout the talent at the top of this class and how it might all fit with respective clubs and their pecking order. We have continuously chatted with scouts and industry personnel on which players are improving their stock and certainly use that information to help forecast what’s to come.
That said, we have a long season ahead of us still. Non-conference play is just beginning at time of publish here, so many will rise and many will fall.
Some of these picks were made at the direction and insight of folks inside big league scouting organizations, and some were not. But with four months in front of us before the 2021 MLB Draft, you can be sure a whole lot of what you’re about to read is bound to change.
1) Pittsburgh Pirates
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
While there have been some question marks among the other college players this season, it’s hard not to envision Rocker being knocked out of the top spot at the present time. He’s yet to allow a run across 23 innings of work, striking out 34 and walking eight batters. His best outing came against his most imposing opponent in Oklahoma State this past week too. Fastball command still isn’t a plus, but it’s looked markedly improved in 2021. Even when the fastball isn’t on, his feel for the slider allows the luxury of going full-on slider dominant for a night. It’s a fantastic mid-to-upper 90s fastball that truly eats at the top of the zone. The slider is arguably the best pitch in the class, a true 70-grade bender. Change-up development will be something to watch, though he’s been flashing it of late and it’s comfortably average at worst. - Tyler
2) Texas Rangers
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Dallas Jesuit HS
There might not be another pick in the entire draft with more intrigue around it than the Texas Rangers at no. 2. Jon Daniels and Chris Young have an interesting predicament on their hands. Take the famous, fan-favorite college arm with lineage and an impressive 5-pitch mix. Or do you take the Southern California shortstop with a pro frame to dream on and silky smooth defensive actions; Marcelo Mayer. In this instance, we’ve got the Rangers snagging local dirt dynamo Jordan Lawlar. Lawlar might not have a single 70-grade in his future, but it’s a good bet to be a plus hitter (maybe 70, if we’re being honest) with above average power and more above average grades across the board. It’s hard to walk away from an arm like Leiter, but Lawlar is arguably the best position player available in this class, and a local product to boot. - Joe
3) Detroit Tigers
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
The false flag 100 mph radar gun readings in week one got the hype train out of the station, but the mighty right arm of Leiter has kept the momentum going. Over the first four weeks of the season Leiter has shown an analytically attractive fastball pairing velocity, shape, and a flat VAA, with a trio of secondaries. The command has been spotty and his early competition hasn’t been tremendous, but the stuff, pitch mix and poise on the mound have won him his fans. At pick three the Tigers add another top level arm talent to pair with Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning, and one with likely an accelerated timeline to the majors. It’s unlikely Leiter drops much later than this. - Ralph
4) Boston Red Sox
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS
Scouts love what Mayer brings to the field. It’s a plus hit tool with plus defense on the dirt and burgeoning power. What was thought to have been 45 or 50 game power is now getting some 55-grades thanks to increased pull-side physicality and added strength. Mayer may not be a guy that does any one thing exceptionally well, but he does everything on the diamond better than most. How Mayer’s body continues to grow and develop will likely dictate what sort of impact he’s capable of with the bat. There’s a chance here for four 55-or-better grades with the run tool probably settling in at average. He’s a no-doubt shortstop at the big league level with a ceiling as high as anyone in the class. - Joe
5) Baltimore Orioles
Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS
Watson has cemented himself as one of the top prep shortstops in this class after an unreal summer circuit. There are teams inside the top five that absolutely love Watson and his toolset. He’s in play here. Watson’s hit tool still needs to catch up to his bat speed and pro power potential. It’s sneaky-big pop. He’s shown the tools to stick at shortstop long term as well, with high level instincts and a strong arm on the dirt. Even if he’s forced to second base at the next level, the bat will carry his profile comfortably. Watson’s season won’t get started until mid-April, but you can expect scouts will be flocking to Wake Forest HS in due time to get their eyes on this explosive middle-infielder this spring. - Tyler
6) Arizona Diamondbacks
Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Henry Davis has been the best player in the country this season and has cemented himself as a top ten pick as it stands today. Davis has an above average feel for hit, and likely projects that or better as a pro. He draws high marks for his approach and ability to barrel up the baseball. He’s a mature hitter who uses the entire field and knows his zone. There’s 55, maybe 60-grade game power here, mostly pull-side. Defensively, Davis has a 70-grade arm and fantastic athleticism behind the plate. He’s still working to receive the ball with softer hands, but that too has taken steps forward in 2021. Davis projects one of the more complete catchers in pro ball, and may be suited for a few all-star games in his future. - Joe
7) Kansas City Royals
Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
Up until last weekend’s ice water bath at Louisville, no hitter in the country may have been hotter than Frelick. Certainly no other top draft bat had matched his production to that point (maybe Henry Davis?). The Boston College junior has not only impressed at the plate but he’s impacted the game in other ways, starting in both right field and center, applying pressure on the base paths with his heads up and aggressive running. A potential everyday outfielder, with a leadoff profile, and a non-zero chance to stick in centerfield is exactly what the Royals have lacked since the days of Lorenzo Cain. - Ralph
8) Colorado Rockies
Brady House, SS/3B, Winder-Barrow HS
Few players can match the physicality and the subsequent upside of House. While his summer performances were concerning - he didn’t hit at all - he’s hit early this spring. Elite bat speed, athleticism and a shot to stick at short make House the kind of high upside pick the Rockies are familiar with in the top ten (Zac Veen, Riley Pint, Brendan Rodgers). If it all clicks, the idea of a Veen + House middle of the order is something for Colorado fans to dream on for years to come. The selection has a risk/reward quality many other organizations wouldn’t be comfortable with. Not Colorado… - Ralph
9) Los Angeles Angels
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
If there’s anyone that has enjoyed a nice velocity bump, it’s Hoglund. Previously working high-80’s to low-90’s, Hoglund has touched 97 MPH in 2021, sitting comfortably 92-94 MPH across his four starts this year. The slider has shown improvements as well, tightening up and becoming at least an above-average offering in the mid-80’s, touching 87. He’s also thrown a changeup that has flashed above-average at times, though it’s a distinct third offering. Hoglund’s best asset is certainly his pinpoint control. He’s still commanding the baseball better than most in his class. He owns an impressive 42:6 K:BB ratio in 2021 and pro scouts love seeing arms avoid self-destruction. The Angels would be happy to pounce on more pitching this year, and adding Hoglund would certainly accomplish that. - Tyler
10) New York Mets
Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Fabian was among the highest profile bats entering the 2021 season, but he’s sputtered out of the gate. The strikeouts and swing-and-miss in his game have been amplified a bit this season, and it’s something he’ll need to curb should he hope to work his way back up draft boards. The pure talent can be mesmerizing. Fabian’s bat speed is special and his power this season is probably up a grade from where many anticipated. It now grades out plus at the next level. He’s still every bit the above average defensive outfielder with an above average arm too. If Fabian can make more contact and ward off concerns of a below average hit tool, there’s a pretty special player here to be had. - Joe
11) Washington Nationals
Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
If you could sculpt a prospect from clay in the mold of what Mike Rizzo is looking for, Madden would be the outcome. The physically imposing Longhorn comes with a big conference track record and experience dominating on the biggest stage. Like Cade Cavalli and Cole Henry before him, Madden has the high-90s fastball and loud secondaries. The fastball has taken big steps forward in 2021, as have the slider and changeup. He’s a reasonably sure bet to reach his mid-rotation ceiling at the next level, and with the athleticism and lack of innings on his resume, could presumably have more in the tank with pro development. - Joe
12) Seattle Mariners
Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
In the early part of the draft cycle McLain was in contention for top college bat on many boards. Few players are easier to project as a major league regular, but the questions around his power tool and long-term defensive position cloud the long-term outlook. However, McLain is the type of high floor infield prospect the Mariners system lacks and is seeking. If Seattle believes McLain can stick on the dirt and develop even fringe-average power to go along with his hit tool, he’s a no-brainer here. - Ralph
13) Philadelphia Phillies
Jaden Hill, RHP, Louisiana State
What Hill lacks in polish, he more than makes up for in serious natural arm talent. The fastball is consistently into the upper-90s with arm-side run. The slider, his best pitch, possesses fantastic depth and is his best swing-and-miss offering. The changeup is commanded better than most at this stage, featuring plenty of parachuting action, spotted consistently low, arm-side. Where Hill must improve is the shape of his fastball, the deception, and the ability for it to miss more bats. Despite the big body, loud arsenal, and impressive secondaries, Hill isn’t yet a strikeout pitcher. That’s something scouts will want to see as we approach July. - Joe
14) San Francisco Giants
Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (OH)
Redhawks righty Sam Bachman has among the best pure stuff in the entire class, though his draft stock could go in a number of directions before July. He’s been dealing with shoulder soreness over the past few weeks, but all indications are it’s nothing serious. Bachman has been up into triple-digits with his heavy fastball this season, complimented by a wipeout slider into the lower-90s. It’s a long, funky arm action coming from a low, short-arm slot that’s tough for hitters to pick up. He’s also got a changeup in the mid-to-upper 80s, though he’s had trouble commanding and finding feel for the cambio. If Bachman gets back on the mound and makes the rest of his starts this season, you’re talking about a guy with two 70-grade pitches in the fastball and slider, as well as a changeup with good shape that he’s shown feel for in winter side-sessions. - Joe
15) Milwaukee Brewers
Adrian Del Castillo, C/1B/LF, Miami
Can he stick behind the plate? That was the biggest question plaguing evaluators when it came to Del Castillo. A month into the season there’s now some question around his ability to hit for power. At this point in the season too much is made of small samples and few bats match the hit+power upside of the Miami backstop. Strong batted ball data make ADC a particularly on-brand pick for the savvy Brewers brass. They’ve shown they put less emphasis on defensive value than other clubs making the questions around his catching less of a non-starter. - Ralph
16) Miami Marlins
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
The Marlins’ brass are hell-bent on kicking open a competitive window in the next couple years and Wicks is the type of arm that stabilizes and balances a future rotation chock-full of high-octane arms. Wicks has some of the best command in the class, and arguably the best changeup in amateur baseball. The prospect of Sandy Alcantara, Sixto Sanchez, Max Meyer and Wicks would make any general manager blush. Miami is certainly on the come-up and Wicks represents the combinations of ceiling and floor necessary to turn a team with a volatile outcome into a stable force in the NL East for years. It might only be an average fastball, but Wicks is a reasonably good bet to reach his mid-rotation ceiling. - Joe
17) Cincinnati Reds
McCade Brown, RHP, Indiana
Brown was the enigma entering the 2021 season. He hadn’t pitch much for the Hoosiers due to injury and control issues, but rebuilt himself going into the 2021 summer wood-bat circuit and now looks every bit one of the best pitchers in the country. Not only that, his profile projects among the best in the class. It’s easy velocity 93-95, up to 97 on a number of occasions. It’s a high-spin fastball, complemented by an extremely high-spin curveball with big bite and depth. He’s also got a high-spin slider and below average changeup he mixes into the fold. If Brown throws strikes like he has early all season long, it’s unlikely he lasts this long. As it stands, he’s an incredibly fun projects for Derek Johnson and Eric Jagers to sink their techy-teeth into. - Joe
18) St. Louis Cardinals
James Wood, OF, IMG Academy
When it comes to high-upside prep, John Mozeliak and Randy Flores haven’t been gun-shy, that’s for sure. Jordan Walker, ‘Tink’ Hence, Masyn Winn, Tre Fletcher… the list is long. There may not be a higher upside prep bat in the 2021 class than James Wood. His immense 6-foot-5 frame and exemplary hand and bat speed from the left side are rivaled by few. The Cardinals acquisition of Nolan Arenado this season shows they have no plan on fading away any time soon. Acquisitions like Wood and Walker help guarantee a new window of playoff-caliber competition when this Arenado/Carpenter/Goldschmidt window eventually closes. - Joe
19) Toronto Blue Jays
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS
Jobe burst onto the scene last summer after developing most of his career as a shortstop. I doubt he’ll be taking ground balls on the dirt anytime soon. The fastball is now comfortably 91-94, touching 95 with big riding action. You can’t talk about Jobe with mentioning his slider, arguably the top pitch in the prep class. It’s a 3000+ rpm breaker with huge depth and violent late-life. It projects every bit that of a 70-grade breaker and could probably play at the big league level right now. Jobe has really focused on developing his changeup this winter and scouts are now throwing average grades on it. Armed with a three-pitch mix, gaudy spin rates and impressive athleticism, we have Jobe the first high school arm off the board. - Joe
20) New York Yankees
Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS
Benny Montgomery remains one of the most tooled-up players in the 2021 draft class. The Yankees haven’t been afraid of reaching for prep stars in past drafts, and he certainly fits that mold. Montgomery went through a dramatic swing change to eliminate a problematic hitch in his swing this winter. Early video seems promising. Still, he’ll need to show that in-game and hit. At worst, Montgomery is a guy with at least 70-grade speed and a 70-arm in the field. His raw power is substantial too, drawing grades anywhere from plus to double-plus. The biggest question will be can he hit. If he shows signs with the bat this spring, he may not even make it to this spot. Given his personality and talent, Montgomery has the chance to be a superstar at the big league level if he learns how to hit. - Joe
21) Chicago Cubs
Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS
It’s very hard to walk away from watching Harry Ford and not be impressed with the all-around skill set out of the North Cobb backstop. Explosive out of the crouch with a near-plus arm and legitimate potential to stick behind the plate, Ford gets high marks all over the diamond. But the real key to his ceiling will be the bat. Ford has shown more in-game power than nearly any prep player in the country over the last calendar year against some of the best arms in the country. A low hand-slot setup, Ford utilizes some of the best bat speed in the 2021 class with almost zero unnecessary bat wrap. Ford could end up in a number of spots including second base, third bases or even centerfield at the next level. Chicago took prep shortstop Ed Howard in the first round of the 2020 Draft, then proceeded to go on a run of acquiring young, toolsy, high-upside talent, and I don’t see a better option available here at no 24. - Ian
22) Chicago White Sox
Andrew Painter, RHP, IMG Academy
Not too long ago it seemed as if Painter would be the top prep arm off the board, but some early spring hiccups have taken some shine off Painter’s draft status. Still a tremendous arm talent with a fastball that sits mid-90s with good shape and ride. A four pitch mix with projection remaining in all of his secondaries, there’s tremendous upside. The White Sox have the luxury of drafting a project like Painter to add to a nice young core of arm talents. - Ralph
23) Cleveland Indians
Bryce Miller, RHP, Texas A&M
Miller saw a pretty significant velo spike this winter and he’s really carried that into the spring season. The fastball has been up to 98 in games, more comfortably living 92-96 most of the time. He’s coupled that with a pretty devastating 12-6 curveball that scouts have thrown plus grades on. Miller has a firm slider that he likes to mix in, as well as a fringy changeup that he’s mixed in on occasion to left-handed hitters. It’s a tall, lanky body with impressive arm-speed and serious untapped potential that Cleveland has had a knack for squeezing the most out of. Miller profiles as a big league starter with a high-octane arsenal that will fit quite well into a farm system and a future rotation with a glut of upside. - Joe
24) Atlanta Braves
Joe Rock, LHP, Ohio University
Ohio University’s Joe Rock has done wonders for his draft stock this season and scouts have taken notice. Over the winter, Rock was up to 97mph, though in-game he’s more comfortably been 91-94. He’s shown a promising breaking ball that projects above average and a big breaking ball that’s induced immense swing and miss. A 6-foot-5 southpaw with long levers and untapped potential generally doesn’t last too long in most drafts. Some evaluators project Rock to sit 94-96 as a pro with a plus breaking ball and above average changeup. He’s drawn comparisons to James Paxton and figures to be a popular name for teams looking for college arms with ceiling this year. - Joe
25) Oakland Athletics
Alex Mooney, SS, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s HS
The top prep player in the state of Michigan this year, Mooney possesses a quiet calm to his game on both sides of the ball, as well as an air of professionalism beyond his years. Mooney’s game has few flaws as he rarely tries to do too much. He’s a good athlete with above average run times, good bat speed metrics, and a track record of in-game performance. A year after selecting a prep performer - Tyler Soderstrom - in this range, the A’s nab another talented up-the-middle player. - Ralph
26) Minnesota Twins
Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS
Scouts love the physicality of Mack. It’s a simple, but powerful left-handed stroke that's shown power to all fields. Mack was among the most consistent hitters on the circuit last summer, barreling up pitches in virtually all the big showcases. Many believe Mack has the best chance of any prep catcher to stick behind the plate in the class thanks to his athleticism, hands, and throwing ability. The bat will be Mack’s carrying tool, so the prep catcher demographic shouldn’t be too alarming here. The bat isn’t too dissimilar from Tyler Soderstrom from a year ago, a first round pick by Oakland toward the end of the first round. - Joe
27) San Diego Padres
Izaac Pacheco, SS/3B, Friendswood HS
Pacheco just oozes physicality and rivals Brady House and James Wood as the most physical bat in the class. At 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, Pacheco is already beginning to grow into his full, physically-matured frame. It’s easy plus raw power from the left side, and he’s getting into it in-game. Pacheco has great hands at the plate and can cover the entire zone, though he has expanded the zone from time to time. Despite the size, Pacheco gets high marks for his athleticism on the infield, playing pretty strong defense at shortstop. He likely moves to third base as the big league level, where the defense should be above average or better. The bat and tools project similar to a Matt Carpenter type of player from his peak. - Joe
28) Tampa Bay Rays
Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
The conversation with Ryan Cusick really starts with his fastball, and it’s arguably the best heater in the class. It’s been up to 101 this winter, and is touching 99 in-game so far this spring. Cusick also throws a hard 12-6 curveball that has sweeping tendencies when he doesn’t stay on top of it. Command has been a real issue for both pitches this season, so that’ll be a big piece of his development at the next level. Cusick had a slider, but ditched it for the curve. I’d imagine it reappears in pro ball, at least as a cutter. He also works in a changeup that’s fringy at best, also lacking feel. Cusick is a pretty raw product on the mound right now, but with his impressive 6-foot-6 size and obvious arm strength, someone is going to fall in love with the potential final package here and we think it’s the Rays. If you look hard enough here, there’s some Tyler Glasnow in what he wants to be. - Joe
29) Los Angeles Dodgers
Josh Hartle, LHP, Reagen HS
Hartle is arguably the best left-handed prep pitcher in the 2021 class and has immense projection coming in his long, lanky, 6-foot-5 frame. He’s added 25 pounds of muscle since the summer of 2020 and now sits at 220 pounds. The fastball was primarily 88-91 last year, though many scouts expect that number to jump considerably as Hartle adds physicality and strength to his frame. He’s shown feel for a big, sweeping breaking ball, a cutter, as well as a changeup in-game. Everything Hartle does is seemingly effortless. The ball jumps out of his hand and the kid is a quintessential pitcher as opposed to a lot of the *throwers* you see at this stage in development. Simply put, Hartle just looks the part of a pitcher who figures to pitch in the big leagues for a very long time. The Dodgers haven’t been afraid to go big in terms of future projection, and considering the strength of the farm, they have the luxury of taking the top player on their board, regardless of position or age. - Joe
30) Miami Marlins
Luca Tresh, C, NC State
College backstops that can hit and project to stick behind the plate at the next level are a hot commodity in most draft classes. Luca Tresh certainly has the bat, loaded with plus raw power. Defensively, it’s a plus arm with quick actions behind the plate. His footwork is still improving, but most expect Tresh to remain a backstop moving forward. The hit tool may be average with some mechanical concerns, but nevertheless, it’s a pretty substantial package when projecting out a role at the big league level. Tresh should be an average hitter as a pro with some good pop, and play an above average defense behind the plate. That combination is rare. There’s value here and Miami does really well pairing their first pick, Wicks, with his future batterymate. - Joe.
31) Detroit Tigers
Christian Franklin, OF, Arkansas
A highly-touted college outfielder that’s hit for power in 2021, Christian Franklin has struggled with swing and miss early on this season. It was a concern entering 2021, and it remains a concern to-date. While he’s had some high moments this season, Franklin has yet to silence the critics around how his bat will play at the next level. After landing Jack Leiter at pick no. 3, the Tigers stay on-brand with another famous college player. A strategy they’ve deployed heavily in recent drafts. - Ralph
32) Milwaukee Brewers
Thatcher Hurd, RHP, Mira Costa HS
Like Jobe, Hurd has some truly rare innate abilities on the mound. Also like Jobe, he hasn’t been a pitcher for very long, and that bodes well for the heavy milage on his arm. Hurd entered 2020 as a catcher and those days are now long-behind him. Hurd’s fastball sits 90-92 right now, though most scouts expect him to bump 95 in due time thanks to impressive arm speed and athleticism on the mound. Hurd’s biggest selling point is his ability to rip through 3000+ RPM breaking balls, freezing righty bats on the regular. Unlike Jobe, Hurd makes his money with a deeper curveball as his breaking ball of choice, as well as a changeup to round things off. There’s some seasoning and development ahead for the Mira Costa product, but Milwaukee is analytically-savvy and figure to get the most out of this impressive blue-chip hurler. - Joe
33) Tampa Bay Rays
Gage Jump, LHP, JSerra HS
An analytical darling, few pitchers fly more in the face of traditional profiles archetypes than Jump. Jump’s fastball might be one of, if not the best, in the prep class. It’s solid velocity for his size but his fastball shape and ability to generate perfect backspin on his four-seamer make him a great fit for a data-savvy organization like Tampa Bay. Jump’s entire pitch mix is good and it’s getting better. This might be a touch higher than where other public rankings have Jump, but I truly believe in the profile. - Ralph
34) Cincinnati Reds
Ben Kudrna, RHP, Blue Valley Southwest HS
Kansas City righty Ben Kudrna burst onto the scene at the Baseball Factory All-Star Classic last summer and hasn’t slowed since. The fastball has been up to 98 in side-sessions, though he usually sits comfortably 91-94 in-game. Scouts expect that number to rise thanks to long, whippy levers and a lanky, still growing frame. Kudrna has shown some of the best command in the class at times with a tight slider with above average depth and a changeup he likes to work low and arm-side to both-handed hitters. Evaluators like the his chances to remain a starter into his pro career thanks to simple, composed mechanics and his ability to command the baseball. - Joe
35) Minnesota Twins
Peyton Stovall, SS, Haughton HS
Peyton Stovall has done wonders for his draft stock since spring ball started showcasing added strength and game power. Stovall’s swing has received comparisons to Daniel Murphy thanks to a modern attack angle and impressive athleticism and leverage in his lower half. He’s shown the ability to hunt velocity, as well as sit back on breaking pitches without letting his front side leak open. Stovall is probably a second baseman at the big league level thanks to an average arm and average athleticism on the infield, but the bat is going to be his carrying tool and it may be above average in both hit and usable power. - Joe