2021 MLB Draft Stock Watch - Week 4

As we dive deeper into the college baseball season, some common names are beginning to buoy their way to the surface as prime performers. It’s only been four weeks. The road is long and winding ahead. Much can change. And it will. Conference play begins next week. It’s go time. That said, week four provided a few familiar names, and a few less-so to keep an eye on moving forward…

Stock Rising…

PITCHERS

McCade Brown, RHP, Indiana

7 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 16 K

For the second week in a row, Brown finds himself on the stock watch feature, and for good reason. Brown absolutely dominated Penn State. He didn’t allow a hit, and didn’t allow a baserunner after the first inning. His 16-strikeouts are a school record.

The questions surrounding Brown’s command are beginning to fade as the 6-foot-6 righty has totally pounded the zone this year. The two first innings free passes allowed on Saturday are the only two he’s allowed this season. He’s been up to 95 this season and the curveball is comfortably plus, some believing double-plus.

On the season, Brown has 14 innings under his belt, punching out 28 along the way. He’s allowed just 3 hits this year. The ERA sits at 0.69 and the WHIP is a minuscule 0.35 on the year. Brown, through two starts, has been the best arm in college baseball.

Dustin Saenz, LHP, Texas A&M

8 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 14 K

For the second week in a row, an Aggie finds himself on the stock watch and Saenz has been just as good as hit right-handed cohort Bryce Miller. Saenz sliced and diced his way through the Samford lineup with authority.

Saenz employed a low-90s fastball that he commanded brilliantly. He mixed in a really good slider inducing plenty of whiffs, as well as a curveball and more distinct changeup as well. Saenz is a crafty lefty who’s polish and command should land him in the first five rounds of the 2021 MLB Draft.

On the year, Saenz has 26.1 innings under his belt. He’s punched out 36 batters and issued just 6 free passes. He’s exceeded 110 pitches twice now. His ERA sits at just 1.71. Texas A&M might have a first round arm in Miller, but Saenz should hear his name called shortly thereafter.

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss

6 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 14 K

Hoglund is no stranger to the stock watch feature, this being his second appearance on the list this season. He had another big day on Saturday, making minced meat of the University of Louisiana-Monroe.

At 6-foot-4, 220-pounds, Hoglund already very much looks the part. He’s one of the best command pitchers at the top of the class. The fastball has been up to 98 this season, but more comfortably sits 92-95 most nights. His best pitch is a masterfully commanded slider that induces a ton of bad swings. It’s a firm 84-86 mph offering that’s easily plus, and it’s his go-to out pitch. He also works in a changeup when necessary.

Over four starts, Hoglund has 23.1 innings logged and has struck out an awfully impressive 42 hitters. He’s issued just six walks on the year. Saturday’s game against ULM was his first outing where he didn’t surrender an earned run, but his performances have been noteworthy each night out. Hoglund’s type of profile generally doesn’t make it out of the first round most years.

  • Other Notables: Kumar Rocker (Vanderbilt), Colton Johnson (Illinois State), Jordan Marks (SC-Upstate), Spencer Miles (Missouri), Christian Macleod (Mississippi State), Evan Shawver (Cincinnati), Jaden Hill (LSU), Landon Marceaux (LSU), Austin Love (North Carolina), Zebulon Vermillion (Arkansas), Justin Armbruester (New Mexico), Walker Powell (Southern Miss), Jonathan Childress (Texas A&M), Ryan Webb (Georgia), Jack Leftwich (Florida)

HITTERS

Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State

9 FOR 16 (.563/.588/1.437) 4 HR, 2 2B, 8 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SB, 4 K

Black is one of the more underrated hitters in the country, due in part to he playing at Wright State. But make no mistake, Black can hit. He’s played 13 games this season, 5 of which have come against Vanderbilt and Alabama and he’s really played well. He really torched Youngstown State this weekend.

Black is without a doubt a second baseman at the next level with the outside shot at moving to third base. He lacks lateral mobility, but he has an average arm and good instincts in the field. The hit tool is said to be plus, and there’s at least fringe-average power in the tank too.

The slash line over 13 games has been outstanding for Black. He’s up to .422/.534/.800 with 4 homers, 4 doubles, and 5 stolen bases. He has more walks (13) than punch outs (11). Black’s hit tool will certainly entice teams, especially in a rather weak year for college infielders. He’ll likely hear his name called in the first five rounds in July.

Isaiah Thomas, OF, Vanderbilt

7 FOR 16 (.438/.471/1.126) 3 HR, 1 2B, 6 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K

Thomas is one of the more physically imposing outfielders in the class at 6-foot-3, 210 pounds. That said, he’s a really good athlete who profiles into a corner at the next level with a strong arm and above average speed. He tee’d off this weekend against a talented Oklahoma State staff, homering three times in a three-game series.

Thomas is on a similar path to JJ Bleday from 2019. He didn’t play full-time until this season, but when he played in 2020, the results were always loud. The physical tools are special and if he hits in SEC play, there’s a reasonable chance he makes his way into the first round.

Through 19 games, Thomas has his average up to .314 with 6 homers. He’s got 12 strikeouts and three walks in 69 at-bats, so there’s some work to do in terms of approach. That said, he’s slugging close to .600 this season and will have every chance to work his way up draft boards thanks to the raw tools in his possession.

Cal Conley, SS, Texas Tech

10 for 15 (.667/.762/.867) 3 2B, 5 RBI, 5 BB, 1 HBP, 1 SB, 2 K

This is Conley’s first time being features on the stock watch, but his bat has been a standout all season long. Texas Tech is one of the few schools out there that’s challenged themselves with a tough non-conference schedule, and Conley’s been a bit of a lineup catalyst for the Red Raiders.

At just 5-foot-10, Conley isn’t built like the prototypical shortstop, and he may not be able to stick at the position as a pro, but he’s so good on the dirt, it might not matter. Conley’s actions are buttery smooth and he handles balls to his left and right with ease. The arm is average and should be able to handle any infield position a team requests of him. The hit tool is comfortably above average and the game power could be average as well. The kid can swing it.

On the season, Conley has his average up to .403 and it’s chockfull of extra base hits too. His 6 doubles and three home runs have helped drive in 20 RBI, good for third in the entire country. There is some swing-and-miss in Conley’s hit tool with 13 Ks early here, but he’s drawn six walks and stolen five bases as well. He does everything pretty well. Conley has a pretty good shot of being a Top 100 pick in July.

Other Notables: Henry Davis (Louisville), Tim Elko (Ole Miss), Shane McGuire (San Diego), John Rhodes (Kentucky), Dan Bolt (Bradley), Bryson Worrell (East Carolina), Steven Rivas (Houston), Clemente Inclan (North Carolina), Mason McWhorter (Georgia Southern), Kirby McMullen (Florida), Ethan Wilson (South Alabama)