Big League Debut: Richie Martin, Baltimore Orioles

Martin was the first pick in the 2018 Rule Five Draft, and will be the Orioles primary shortstop for the beginning of 2019. The Orioles plucked Martin from the Athletics, where he was their first round pick in 2015 going 20th overall out of the University of Florida. He was a steady college performer that was known for his defense and speed, and he went 45-for-52 on the bases while on campus. He did flash a hit tool at times when he led the Cape with a record .364 average in 2014. The defense has translated thus far in his pro career, but until 2018 the offense lagged behind considerably. While repeating Double-A last year in Midland, Martin put together the best offensive season of his professional career, hitting .300/.368/.439 with career high totals in homers (six) and steals (25).

THE RANKINGS

Richie Martin is ranked number seven on Ralph Lifshitz’s Baltimore Orioles top 30 list.

THE TOOLS

Defense (60 Field/60 Arm): Defense is Martin’s calling card. His plus speed combined with lightning quick first step give him plus range, and that range paired with his plus arm allow him to make all the plays at the six. The glove at short will buy him more time for the bat to develop, and even if it doesn’t come around there’s enough here to carve out a career as a utility man. He did play some second base last year in an effort to expand his portfolio.

Power (30 Game/40 Raw): Martin set a new career high for homers in a season last year with six while repeating Double-A Midland, so there isn’t much over-the-fence thump here. Most of Martin’s extra-base hits will come from splitting the gaps or using his feet. In addition to the six homers, Martin set personal highs with 29 doubles and eight triples. He made more consistent hard contact last season, but his extreme groundball profile limits the upside. His last three stops in the minors have resulted in groundball percentages of 64%, 62% and 57%. Expecting more than ten homers a year from Martin might be a fruitless exercise, but he did drive the ball further last season after he re-worked his swing and swapped out his toe-tap for a leg kick.

Hit (40 Present/50 Future): Martin has done an excellent job of making consistent contact throughout his career and his strikeout rates should settle around 18-22% at peak. Martin credits a lot of his offensive breakout last season due to eye strengthening exercises and improved vision due to new contact lenses. The focus for Martin and the Orioles will be turning that high rate of contact into more quality contact.

Speed (60 Present/60 Future): Martin is a plus runner and it shows on both sides of the ball. How much his speed plays will be directly correlated to how much he gets on base and if the offensive improvements translate to the big leagues. At peak he could steal 15-20 bases.

Prediction: Martin is a worthwhile gamble for the Orioles and is exactly the type of player they should roll the dice on in a non-competitive season. The Orioles are looking to see if they can develop a role player like Martin into a second division regular. He’s a low upside player but his defensive skills alone can be worthy of a roster spot for the next half-dozen years. If his offensive game continues to grow then that’s a massive win for Martin and the Orioles.

Big League Debut: Eloy Jiménez, Chicago White Sox

The Cubs signed Eloy Jiménez for $2.8m out of the Dominic Republic in 2013. The Cubs blew past their bonus pool limits to sign Eloy and Gleyber Torres who were at the top of this international class. The two developed in to valuable assets the Cubs used to bolster their bid for a World Series. After dealing Gleyber to the Yankees in 2016, the Cubs sent Eloy to the cross town White Sox as the headliner in a package for LHP Jose Quintana in 2017.

At 6’4”, 205 lbs., he’s a presence in the box, and his size is warning enough of what he’s capable of. He has the appearance of a hulking slugger, but he’s more than that. Jimenez hit .337 and .312 the last two minor league seasons, becoming one of the top prospects in the game. With the Southsiders looking to excelerate their competitive window, they signed Eloy to a record-breaking deal for a player with no service time. The deal is for 6 years, $43 million with two option years that can push it closer to $75 million.

THE RANKINGS

Eloy Jiménez is ranked number two on both our top 100 and our top 100 fantasy list. He is number one on Lance Brozdowski’s Chicago White Sox top 30 list.

THE TOOLS

Eloy is a complete hitter and becomes one of the best hitters in the American League immediately.

Defense (40 Field/45 Arm): Eloy has alternated between left and right field in his pro career thus far, but his below-average arm makes him a better fit for left. He doesn’t cover much ground in the outfield and is a sub-par defender and designated hitter could be his future long term role.

Power (70 Game/80 Raw): The power comes easy, and there isn’t a fence in any ballpark that Eloy can’t clear. He famously did his best Roy Hobbs impersonation when he took out a light tower during the 2017 Carolina League home run derby. The swing is simple and repeatable. He starts his hands from a low slot, and at the top of his leg kick his hands rise up and his hips do their job. The result is a seemingly effortless stroke that produces hard contact and elite exit velocities. He’s already worthy of being a centerpiece in any lineup.

Hit (55 Present/70 Future): The above average present and future plus hit tool is the separator for Jiménez. It’s rare to come across a hitter of his size and power peak that has the ability to control the zone and recognize spin like he does. He’s a tireless worker that has famously been seen working on pitch recognition drills early in the morning after a two-strikeout game in the minors. He studies pitchers and their game plans and reacts and adjusts due to how they attack him. He makes consistent hard contact while posting sub-20% strikeout rates for a majority of his pro career. After a sub-par spring the plan right now is to attack him with breaking balls, and in fact 15 of the first 21 pitches he saw in the big leagues were breaking balls. It will be fun to see what happens when he adjusts.

Speed (40 Present/30 Future): Speed isn’t a part of his game, and he’s a good enough hitter where it doesn’t matter. I do expect him to slow down as he gets more physically mature.

Prediction: The White Sox have a franchise building block here, and he will be the face of the south side squad for at least the next six years, likely more. I believe Eloy can hit .290 right now, and is a .300+ hitter at his peak. Our Prospects Live peak projection was .310/.360/.580 while also hitting 40 homers. He draws Miguel Cabrera comps for a reason. The White Sox are going to let Eloy finish developing at the big league level, and he will become a top five hitter in baseball at his peak.

NL East Prospect Preview

ATLANTA BRAVES

Prospects to Watch: The Braves should be a really fun team to watch offensively with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Freddie Freeman in the center of their lineup which also includes Josh Donaldson and Ozzie Albies, and they should be up near the top of the National League in runs scored. It’s hard to see where any prospect can really have a significant impact on offense for them in 2019, but I could see Cristian Pache or Austin Riley getting some run if the injury bug continues to bite the team like it has this spring. Riley is the closer of the two after spending all of 2018 in Gwinnett and hitting .294/.360/.522 with 19 homers but a 28% strikeout rate. The signing of Donaldson should slow the ETA of Riley, but he missed most of the season last year with a calf injury and is getting up there in age, so it’s not impossible to see a scenario where Donaldson goes down and Camargo becomes the shortstop if Dansby Swanson continues to struggle.

If you love prospects then you’ll love the projected rotation for the Braves, and Jason Woodell wrote up most of these arms here. Not only are Bryse Wilson and Kyle Wright breaking camp with the big club, but it’s a certainty that you’ll also see Touki Toussaint, Mike Soroka, Luiz Gohara, Kolby Allard, Patrick Weigel and even former first rounder Max Fried all in the mix. Kyle Wright will be the primary focus of this write-up though. The righty was the fifth overall selection in the 2017 draft out of Vanderbilt, and is starting the third game of the season for the Braves. He has two plus pitches in his fastball and slider, and also throws an above average curveball, an average change and has been experimenting with a cutter thanks to fellow Vanderbilt alum Walker Buehler. Deep pitch mix aside, Wright’s command has improved by the eye test this spring, and he has stuff to stick in the rotation long term. He also threw 145 innings between the majors and minors last season, so the Braves could push him to 180-190 if he stays healthy. He’s a mid-rotation starter for me long term.

Others of note:

Chad Sobotka
Wes Parsons
Jacob Webb
Corbin Clouse
Alex Jackson

Position Battle I’m Watching: I can see the pitching staff being Dodgers-esque this year with how often they will send arms back and forth between Gwinnett and the big club and maximize their elite upper level depth. I’m forecasting Kyle Wright to stick long term, even when Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman return, joining Julio Teheran and Sean Newcomb. You’ll see all arms I listed above in the mix in the bullpen also, and the waiver wire will be primed with Braves arms garnering multi-dollar bids.

MIAMI MARLINS

Prospects to Watch: There aren’t many prospect bats to watch in the Marlins system that are options for anything more than a handful of end-season plate appearances, unless a trade opens up a path to playing time. If the Marlins can find a taker for Starlin Castro they could just plug Isan Diaz in at second base and see what his plus power tool can do. The hit tool for Diaz is below average and he’s posted strikeout rates up around 26% at every level thus far, which might eat into his 25-homer potential, but he has a 12% walk rate for his career so he has a three-true outcomes vibe to him.

The Marlins have some excitement in their rotation which features three 25-and-younger arms in Trevor Richards, Pablo Lopez, and Sandy Alcantara. Of the three Alcantara is still prospect eligible, but he also has the most work to do. Our Prospects Live Marlins top 30 list has the slender right-hander ranked sixth, and Eddy Almaguer explains that his fastball command is the biggest deterrent currently. I agree, and while the fastball averages 95 MPH, he routinely misses the glove with that pitch. His best secondary is a changeup that flashes plus, but again, when you can’t throw strikes with the fastball you fall behind and can’t use the best pitch. This is a make or break year for Alcantara. With other arms in the organization stepping up, and guys like Jordan Yamamoto and Zac Gallen knocking on the door of the big league rotation it’s time for him to put it together or go to the bullpen.

Others of note:

Jordan Yamamoto
Zac Gallen
Monte Harrison
Jeff Brigham
Austin Dean

Position Battle I’m Watching: The rotation will continue to be a highly contested spot for the Marlins all year. Jordan Yamamoto and Zac Gallen don’t have much left to prove in the minor leagues. Both have above average command and are more high-floor guys than high-ceiling top of the rotation arms. Caleb Smith is recovering from Tommy John and should bump into an innings limit sometime after the All-Star break, and Jose Urena and the previously mentioned Alcantara have their command issues, so these two will certainly factor in to the rotation if they stay healthy.

New York Mets

Prospects to Watch: Sometimes the decision is really easy, and that’s the case here. The Mets offensive prospect to watch is Pete Alonso. The former Florida Gator has won the starting first baseman job after a strong spring, and has also been announced as the number two hitter in the lineup, right behind OBP machine Brandon Nimmo, which is an intriguing spot. Alonso has 70 game power and will hit 35 homers if he gets a full seasons worth of at bats. Jason Woodell covered him extensively here and thinks he can go .245/.330/.500+. I’m here for that.

The Mets rotation is one of the best in the league, and the back of the bullpen with Edwin Diaz and others has the potential to be strong as well, which is good because most of the Mets Major League-ready pitching prospects are swing-guys or middle relief types. Walker Lockett was twice traded this offseason; from the Padres to the Indians and then from the Indians to Mets for Kevin Plawecki, and he represents quality Major League depth. He throws a 93 MPH fastball, and compliments it with a curve and change. The former fourth rounder will start the season in Triple-A, but will be one of the first arms scooped from Syracuse should the Mets need some depth.

Others of note:

Drew Gagnon
Gavin Cecchini
Tomas Nido

Position Battle I’m Watching: The outfield for the Mets is a crowded one, with Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Juan Lagares, Keon Broxton, Jeff McNeil and the injured Yoenis Cespedes all fighting for at bats this year. As of this writing it appears the first three have the jobs right now, and Conforto is the only one of the trio that isn’t in danger of losing playing time. Lagares is often injured, and when healthy hasn’t shown enough with the bat. Broxton also being a plus defender in center means he has to hit, or at least out-hit Broxton. Jeff McNeil got some time in the outfield this spring, and admittedly didn’t look great, but with Todd Frazier and Jed Lowrie on the shelf he’s thrust into the everyday role at third. This whole situation gets even more complicated when Cespedes returns off the Injured List. With that contract that spot in left field is his when he returns, but I have a feeling we will see an outfield of Cespedes-Nimmo-Conforto as the season goes on.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Prospects to Watch: Nobody jumps out at you when looking at the Phillies depth chart when trying to find a bat that should contribute at the big league level. I’m going to reach down a bit and highlight Adam Haseley, who will spend a majority of the season in Triple-A this year. The former first rounder out of the University of Virginia hit .305/.361/.433 in Double-A with 11 homers, seven steals and a strong 14% strikeout rate. Haseley uses all fields and his plus plate skills play up due to his ability to make contact. There are some concerns that he isn’t a strong enough glove in center, and wouldn’t have enough power for a big league corner. Tweener profile. Our own Jason Woodell puts a 60 on the hit tool with a 55 power grade here. Haseley has a chance to spend September on the big league roster.

The Phillies rotation is pretty strong with Aaron Nola, Nick Pivetta and Jake Arrieta at the top and Zach Eflin and Vince Velasquez at the back end. It was this same group last season and we still saw arms like Enyel De Los Santos and he’s battling with Jerad Eickhoff to be the first arm called up when an arm is needed. De Los Santos throws four pitches, with his changeup being his best pitch. It’s a plus offering and he has an average fastball and curveball, and a developing slider. His command is erratic currently, and he needs to focus on missing bats more consistently. I do think he is a starter long term, but there’s some work to do here.

Others of note:

Drew Anderson
Ranger Suarez
Edgar Garcia

Position Battle I’m Watching: The Phillies starting eight are fairly set, but there’s a chance that Scott Kingery can overtake Maikel Franco if he doesn’t hit. The organization has been down on the big third baseman at times, but he was an above average contributor on offense last year with a 105 wRC+. He has heavy ground ball rates though, but perhaps the hiring of Jason Ochart from Driveline can give the Phillies yet another dynamic offensive player.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Prospects to Watch: If it wasn’t for a nasty elbow injury that Victor Robles suffered while diving for a ball in Triple-A, we may be writing about Juan Soto in this spot. Robles would go on to miss nearly three months due to that injury, but returned in early July. It was mostly a lost season but over a 66 plate appearance stretch in the final month, he hit .288/.348/.525 with three homers, three steals and four more extra base hits. Small sample size, sure, but his whole season was reduced to that with the injury. He’s a plus defender, runner, and thrower from centerfield, and has a plus hit tool. The power is the question mark, but I think he can hit 20 homers in the future, which makes him a borderline superstar. He made the opening day starting nine, and will bat from the nine spot as a second leadoff man.

Any prospect that breaks in for the Nationals on the pitching side will have to do it through the bullpen as the Nationals have a strong starting five and also strong depth pieces like Joe Ross, and Erick Fedde ready when needed. My pick is going to be relief arm James Bourque. The former Michigan Wolverine has a high effort delivery with a fastball that touches 96, with a slider and a change. Long term I see him in the back end of the bullpen, but he could carve out a setup role this season. He’s already on the 40-man roster and should start the season at Triple-A Fresno.

Others of note:

Kyle McGowin
Austen Williams
Tanner Rainey
Carter Kieboom
Spencer Kieboom

Position Battle I’m Watching: This isn’t as much a position battle as it is a lineup battle, but the leadoff hitter should be a highly contested but highly valuable spot to watch in Washington this year. Adam Eaton has the job right now, but he hasn’t been a pillar of health the last two seasons, and it’s hard to not get excited about a potential Victor Robles-Trea Turner top two. With Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon in the middle of the lineup it is a valuable spot. Robles will begin the season hitting ninth, but I project him to get most of the at bats out of the leadoff spot this year.