The day the Chicago White Sox agreed to send a 17-year-old prospect by the name of Fernando Tatis Jr. for veteran righty James Shields, few viewed it as a potential franchise altering deal for the Padres. Signed by the White Sox for $850,000 during the 2015 International signing period, he never saw the field in an official game for the White Sox.
In many ways this is a potentially seminal moment for one of the up and coming programs in the game. Tatis was part of a wave of moves where GM A.J. Preller and his cronies unearthed a massive trove of untapped talents. On Thursday, Tatis debuted on Opening Day, an unheard of honor in this day and age. Starting at shortstop he went 2-for-3 with a strikeout, and a caught stealing. There’s been a lot of chatter… regarding his potential outcomes this season. We know a few things about Tatis so let’s discuss.
The Rankings
Fernando Tatis Jr. is ranked number three on both our top 100 and top 100 fantasy lists. He is number one on Lance Brozdowski’s San Diego Padres top 30 list.
The Tools
From a raw tools perspective there are few that grade out like Tatis. A plus athlete with a lean frame that still has projection remaining.
Defense (55 Field/60 Arm): A plus glove with athletic movements in the field, I wouldn’t necessarily bill him as a future gold glove shortstop, but he’s continued to improve, and now many see him sticking at the position. His arm is capable of making all the throws from the left side of the infield, and should be the root of more than a few of Tatis’ more spectacular plays.
Power (60 Game/70 Raw): His raw power should be well know at this point, he’s had a .221 ISO over the past two seasons. That’s not a small sample size either. You’re looking at a shade under 1,000 total plate appearances. I feel comfortable putting a 60 game on Tatis now with potential for a hard 70 at peak.
Hit (45 Present/55 Future): His hit tool is a little bit more of a question. There’s always been swing and miss in the profile, but he’s also managed to produce a .281/.369/.502 line with a slightly concerning 25.8 K%. In the big scheme of things, a 25.8% K rate for a teenager is not bad in the toughest A-ball environment in the minors and a Double-A circuit that boasted a fair amount of pitching depth. He’s also known to work deep into counts and walks a fair amount averaging an 11.4 BB% over the last two campaigns. There’s certainly some aggression in the profile, but he’s not a hack. He’ll see a fair amount of pitches, and isn’t scared to let it fly against a pitch he feels he can hit. His eye will improve over time, and the batting average I expect to sit between .245-.255 will tick up to a .265-.280 range.
Speed (60 Present/50 Future): Coming into the season most of the run times you saw on Tatis were in the 55-60 range, but something happened in spring training reports of 70 runs started to leak from legitimate sources. Tatis flies on the bases once he’s underway, but his baserunning instincts can be overly aggressive at times. He’s still a good base stealer, and it seems like the Padres plan to run him. The 70 run times might be more of a blip, though I’m more comfortable grading it a hard 60 now than I was last June. Over time, Tatis should develop into a middle of the order mashers, potentially trading speed for power. It’s also possible that the Padres decide to run him less over time, meaning his peak speed output should likely come over the next few seasons.
Prediction: As a player who is prone to cold starts and scorching hot stretches, inconsistency should be the expectation this season. One of Tatis’ strengths is his ability to adjust. We’ve see him struggle, adjust and rake repeatedly — as much as you can for a player you’ve seen in parts of two seasons. The batting average will likely be poor, but not putrid (.245-.255) with a nine percent or so walk rate and a strikeout rate around 27%-28%. He’s capable of 20+ homers at present and 20 steals is possible if he sees 30+ attempts. The quality of Tatis’ overall line will depend on him staying healthy and continuing to show the ability to adjust in a big way.