With Fernando Tatis Jr., Nick Margevicius, and Chris Paddack all breaking camp with the big club on Opening Day, the San Diego Padres certainly bucked the trend of suppressing service time on major league ready talent. A refreshing approach in the current environment. Later today righthander Chris Paddack will make his major league debut at home versus the San Francisco Giants.
Over the last four years, Paddack has experienced the highs and lows of the road to The Show. Selected by the Marlins in the 8th round of the 2015 draft, Paddack impressed in his professional debut and followed it up with a standout performance early in 2016. On the last day of June, the Marlins, with designs on a playoff run, traded Paddack to San Diego for Fernando Rodney. The right-hander made three starts for the Padres before sustaining an elbow injury that required Tommy John Surgery. After sitting on the shelf for more than year, Paddack pushed his way across High-A and Double-A, arriving in camp determined to skip Triple-A and the PCL altogether as a member of the Padres rotation. The Texan stubbornness paid off, as the goal came to fruition, in fact the moment was captured beautifully in the below tweet.
The Rankings
Paddack ranks 35th on our team Top 100 and 43rd on our fantasy Top 100. Lance Brozdowski ranked Paddack 4th in his San Diego Top 30. I have a feeling all of those ranks would be higher if re-ranked today.
The Tools
Fastball (60 Present/70 Future): A high spin offering sitting in the 92-95 range popping 96-98 when needed. Paddack effectively locates the pitch to all four quadrants and his pinpoint control allows him to hit his spots effectively and paint on the black. One of the best control/command + stuff combinations in the minor leagues. An easy 60 with a 70 ceiling, you’ll see a fair share of fastballs from The Sheriff later today.
Changeup (65 Present/70 Future): All discussion of Paddack’s arsenal begins and ends with his double plus offspeed pitch. The remarkable thing is this pitch might have been a plus major league pitch three years ago, it’s only improved since getting consistent 70/plus-plus grades. It’s “Bugs Bunny” movement keeps lefties baffled and paired with his improving curveball provides a road map to success regardless of handiness.
Curveball (45 Present/55 Future): The common refrain this off-season regarding Paddack was “He has two really great pitches, but what about a third offering?”. You heard takes that ran the gamut from “his curveball is a get me over pitch” to “average early count strike stealer with a little more ceiling”. Paddack showed a far more hard braking hook than he had flashed previously this spring, showing the ability to be a weapon versus righties. If he can find enough to comfort to throw it with regularity deep into counts we could be talking about an above-average third offering with a plus ceiling. Regardless of what heights the curveball reaches, it’s certainly no longer a get-me-over offering.
Control/Command (60 Present/70 Future): Some of the best feel in the minor leagues has led to otherworldly K-BB numbers with 191 punchouts to 13 walks over 132 innings, good enough for a K/BB of 14.6. Suffice it to say Paddack commands his stuff with authority.
Conclusion: Paddack’s rise to hype beast has been a long time coming, and shouldn’t be terribly shocking for those paying attention. His strong three pitch mix. The sturdy 6’4’ 200 lbs frame looks ready to eat innings, whether Padres continue their non-conformity and take the reins off of Paddack remains to be seen, but an innings limit in the 140-150 range seems comfortable for me given Paddack’s pitch efficiency. I’ve planted my flag on Paddack as a future top of the rotation arm, and little has deterred me from my lofty expectations for the Texan. It’s Paddack Day, the first of many