Recently, we took a look at some pitchers who can maximize their potential by altering their pitch mix. It is amazing how many pitchers could theoretically could get better by relying on their strengths more, and as we’ve seen recently, individualized plans are critical for a pitcher.
Today, however, we are taking our analysis to another level. The previous 13 pitchers have room to grow, but in the final part of this two-part series, we will be looking at pitchers who are really on the brink of excellent with a plan tailored to take advantage of the pitcher’s strength. If you are in a fantasy league, or a fan of the team that employs these pitchers, you are going to want a very close eye on them this season!.
#12: Anthony DeSclafani, San Francisco Giants
The 2020 season is a difficult one to evaluate in that it is almost impossible to know how much to weigh it compared to a normal season, but I am confident in saying that Anthony DeSclafani won’t repeat a 6.10 FIP and -0.1 fWAR.
Between 2015 and 2019, DeSclafani combined for 8.6 fWAR, and after signing with the Giants, he is likely to see his home run rate decrease. Just from that sense, he is likely to provide San Francisco with surplus value on a one-year, $6 million deal.
However, why settle there? Recently, DeSclafani turned his slider into more of a traditional one, and although it missed bats (35% whiff rate), it may have affected his other pitches.
When there has been a velocity differential between his slider and curveball, DeSclafani has had two excellent breaking pitches. Relying on both of those breaking balls slightly more (his fastballs have generally gotten hit very hard), something the Giants have specialized in with their pitchers recently, could allow him to use that to his advantage. I’d keep a close eye on him in a new organization and more favorable ballpark.
#11: Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers
As a well-regarded prospect with a sharp 99 mph sinker, Dustin May is a pitcher who garners a lot of hype. However, adjustments may need to be made after he only posted a 7 K/9 in his rookie season, which backs up lackluster minor-league strikeout numbers as well.
May’s sinker is an exciting pitch, but it doesn’t induce many whiffs. Yet, he threw it over half of the time last season. On the other hand, his cutter and curveball have been much more effective, and deserved to be used more than a combined 37% of the time. His curveball generates a lot of raw spin and is an excellent sweeping pitch. And despite below-average vertical rise on his 4-seam fastball, it has been effective up in the zone due in large part because its velocity.
For May, it’s rather simple: stop throwing your least effective pitch as much as all your other pitches, which are far more effective, combined. I’m assuming the Dodgers will make some tweaks to his pitch usage in the future, though a lot of it also depends on his role in 2021.
#10: Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies
Is it time to get excited about a Zach Eflin breakout? The 26-year-old posted a 3.23 xFIP in 59 innings in 2020, and the Phillies will be counting on him to replicate it over a larger sample size in 2021.
Notably, Eflin’s strikeout rate (10.68 K/9) and chase rate induced (36%) jumped out tremendously, although his swinging strike rate didn’t improve by as much. Thus, to sustain this, he’ll need to find a way to miss more bats in order to combat K/9 regression.
To do so, Eflin could definitely tweak his pitch mix. He generates nearly twice as many whiffs with his curveball as his slider, for instance, yet the slider is his main breaking ball. Additionally, now that he is relying on a much-more effective sinker more so than his fastball, it would also be optimal for him to implement his changeup more.
Why would this be the case? Unlike his slider, Eflin’s curveball generates a lot of horizontal movement, as does his changeup. Having the curveball to move in the opposite form horizontally as his sinker, while then having a changeup to mirror the sinker, could be the key to unlocking a lot of success.
This is almost a completely overhaul of the arsenal, but there is so much potential for Eflin. He has already improved by playing to his strengths and not working vertically when his fastball wasn’t built to do so, but now, he needs to find a way to complement the sinker better. If so, he could be the X-Factor that puts a Phillies team with playoff aspirations over the top.
#9: German Marquez, Colorado Rockies
In any other organization, German Marquez could easily be considered a top 10 pitcher in all of baseball right now. Between 2018-2019, he combined for 7.7 fWAR, and was on pace for five-win season in 2020.
Yet, Marquez’s strikeout rates have also declined in each of the past three seasons, which is strange considering his swinging strike rates haven’t budged. Since his peak 2018 season, he has been throwing his curveballs more when he has two strikes, but meanwhile, his whiff rates in those situations with said pitch have decreased.
So, what should Marquez do to combat this? Simply put, he could be less predictable in favorable situations. His curveball is an excellent pitch, but his slider, despite not rating out metrically, has also performed well. Since his fastball is not a putaway pitch, at least featuring something else to strikeout hitters would be optimal.
Also, Marquez’s fastball location continues to trend lower in the zone, and as that this has happened, his effectiveness with the pitch has decreased. This has been a common theme with Rockies pitchers, and if it continues, the results could be quite troublesome. Relying entirely on one quadrant of the zone, particularly when where hitters are prone to do damage in, is quite risky.
Marquez’s issues likely won’t get fixed until he can get out of Coors Field, although the Rockies don’t appear to be content looking towards their future and shopping him in a trade. If traded, however, be prepared for some enticing results.
#8: Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins
Constantly seen as a breakout candidate, it may be a surprise to see that Jose Berrios has a career 4.35 xFIP , given his reputation. After all, he has exciting overall “stuff”, so he should be striking out more than around a batter per nine.
In 2020, Berrios’ strikeout rate reached a career high (9.7), although his command wavered (3.7 BB/9). What changed? Well, he actually used his curveball as his most frequent pitch, as it generates exceptional horizontal movement. With a 35.2% whiff rate on said offering, that was justified.
There is more work to be done, however. Berrios is still throwing a 4-seam fastball or sinker 44% of the time, and neither pitch is as effective as his changeup, which generated a whiff rate of 33% and has improved now in three straight seasons. Considering that his fastball sits over the plate, while his sinker doesn’t miss bats, this would make sense.
Right now, Berrios mainly throws his changeup to lefties, but since it’s a vertical pitch, there is no reason to suggest it cannot work against righties. Using that pitch more, and continuing to lean on an unorthodox approach, may be key to him maximizing his potential. If that means potentially working on his sinker more than his 4-seam to complement it, so be it, based on the similar results of the two pitches.
#7: Zach Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
Clearly, there is a lot of potential on the Phillies’ pitching staff, and unlocking it could be what gets them into the playoffs in 2021.
Zack Wheeler has always teased an extreme amount of potential, but his xFIPs generally sit in the high 3s, while he has only struck out a batter per nine in one season. This is despite the fact he throws in the upper 90s, and has two breaking balls with a lot of movement.
The latter fact is the one that is key here. Wheeler rightfully started leaning on his four-seam fastball up in the zone rather than his sinker, and it clearly had an effect on his breaking balls. Both pitches generated a whiff rate over 38%, and the effect makes sense since both induce a lot of depth- it would play better off the fastball.
Yet, Wheeler is throwing a fastball or sinker on 65% of his pitches. If his breaking balls work better with the 4- seam fastball, why the need for the sinker to be his secondary offering, especially when it doesn’t generate the movement a typical sinker does? Wheeler’s fastball is a plus vertical offering, so relying on that, and then putting hitters away with his two breaking balls, could suddenly transform him into a pitcher capable of striking hitters out at a very high level. The potential here is enormous, and his 6.7 K/9 is likely a fluke given the fact his swinging strike rate didn’t budge, but the fact that Wheeler is 30-years-old and is just now starting to be a vertical pitcher makes me pessimistic that this pitch usage change actually is implemented. If it is, though, he’s potentially a darkhorse Cy Young candidate.
#6: Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
Sometimes, less is more.
This certainly applies to Chris Archer. In 2019, the 32-year-old posted a 5.40 ERA, allowed a 10.5% barrel rate, and saw his walk rate increase to 10.5%. Meanwhile, between 2018 and 2019, his strikeout rate also decreased, which doesn’t work well when you’re a pitcher who allows a lot of hard contact annually.
Simply put, the big difference between Archer is that he started throwing more pitches. Before 2018, he was a complete two-pitch pitcher, but once traded to the Pirates, he incorporated a sinker, worked down in the zone, and also threw his changeup slightly more.
This is all part of the Pirates’ past regimes instance that each pitcher work down in the zone to induce ground balls, and it clearly didn’t work to Archer’s strengths. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, Archer now finds himself back in Tampa Bay on a one-year, $6.5 million deal, and I fully expect him to go back to doing what he does best: a vertical fastball up in the zone paired with a wipeout slider with a lot of depth. In other words, get ready for the Chris Archer of old to return!
#5: Jose Quintana, Los Angeles Angels
Once considered one of the premier young pitchers during his time with the White Sox, Jose Quintana has been a staple of consistency, posting an xFIP under 4.20 in every season between 2013 and 2019.
At his peak, Quintana was able to rely heavily on his fastball. Starting in 2018, however, his fastball velocity and vertical movement have been on the decline, and it has lost effectiveness since.
Yet, Quintana is still throwing a fastball on 60% of his pitches, which is far too much as his stuff begins to diminish. Conversely, his observed spin on his sinker mirror better with his curveball and changeup, so perhaps lowering his 4-seam usage and increased the amount of offspeed pitches can guide him.
The reason Quintana ranks so high on this list is his high floor. Given his command, he has the ability to safely locate his sinker while working more with his softer pitches. Not working his harder pitches and pitching to his unique strengths should allow him to give the Angels more than they asked for when they signed him for $8 million this offseason.
#4: Michael Wacha, Tampa Bay Rays
Speaking of once extremely well-regarded pitchers when they were younger, Michael Wacha was seen as a rising star with the Cardinals at times, but his production in recent years has regressed.
Believe it or not, but the 29-year-old’s 6.62 ERA represented a breakthrough. Wacha increased his strikeout rate to 23.7%, lowered his walk rate to 4.5%, and rated out well by several ERA estimators.
Wacha’s fastball, which works best horizontally, has constantly gotten hit very hard. Thus, it makes sense that he threw it less in 2020, while increasing the usage of his elite changeup, which generated a 40.8% whiff rate in 2020. Also, he implemented his cutter more often, though it doesn’t miss many bats, and has gotten hit hard in the past.
The Rays do a great job of simplifying a pitcher’s arsenal, and with Wacha’s changeup being such a strength, don’t be surprised if he continues to decrease his fastball usage, while his changeup usage will spike tremendously. This is particularly likely in more of a bulk innings role, and in five-inning stints, I think he can be extremely effective. There are a lot of similarities here to Kevin Gausman, who just had a breakout season with the Giants, who felt he had done enough to be given the qualifying offer this offseason.
#3: Frankie Montas, Oakland A’s
The concept of seam-shifted wake has become extremely popular recently, which the idea being that pitchers can change the movement of their pitches simply based off the seams. This movement is rather sharp and late, adding to the overall deception of their arsenal.
Frankie Montas, with an intriguing sinker/splitter combination, is someone who benefits from this. The two pitches mirror each other well, and the results from his splitter have been fantastic.
At the same time, the best part about Montas is that he also has a vertical fastball sitting at 95 mph that mirror his vertical slider well, which essentially means he has two different fastball/offspeed pairings. Yet, his pitch usage doesn’t reflect that, and moving forward, I’d like to see Montas:
Throw his sinker less
Throw his splitter more
Potentially work vertically more
The main point of his sinker is to mirror the splitter, but if he isn’t benefiting from the splitter by not throwing it, why throw the sinker? I get that this may seem overly simplistic, but it’s true. With how well his pitches mirror each other, his pitch usage needs to reflect that to take full advantage, and right now, he’s leaving a bit on the table. His profile is so diverse and I will continue to remain invested in him, and the A’s definitely need him to be a frontline starter for them in 2021.
#2: Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres
Along with Archer, another pitcher who got hurt by the old Pirates regime in terms of that he worked down in the zone with a deep arsenal. However, with a new regime taking over in 2020, we got to see the first signs of “less can be better”.
In 2020, Musgrove’s fastball rate decreased notably, while his breaking ball usage spiked. The result? A 33.1% strikeout rate, albeit in a small sample size. I am almost certain that can be attributed to the pitch mix change, and although his walk rate spiked, it was certainly worth it for the strikeout boost.
Simply, Musgrove ranks so high on this list still because it will be key to see him sustain his new pitch mix over full season. Luckily, with the Padres, he may not have to work deep in games, while they generally advocate their pitches simplifying their pitch mix.
Also, he could afford to throw his changeup more, as it has annually generated whiff rates above 33%, and has exceptional vertical drop. Simply replacing the 6.2% cutter usage with more changeups could make an impact, though really, I’m just excited to see what a full season of this unlocked version of him looks like. If it sustains, the Padres are going to have quite the loaded starting rotation.
#1: Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers
Matthew Boyd’s 30.4 strikeout rate in 2019, paired with a 6.3% walk rate, should mean he’s a frontline starter.
That is not the case however. Boyd allows A LOT of fly balls (career 19 launch angle), and his strikeout rates besides that one season have been uninspiring.
When you get plus vertical and horizontal movement from your slider and changeup, perhaps those should be weapons you constantly utilized. Instead, he is throwing his fastball 50%, and the results haven’t been pretty: above a 40% hard-hit rate over the past two seasons.
Considering Boyd’s fastball generally sits right over the heart of the plate, it probably isn’t a pitch he should be so reliant on. Meanwhile, his two top offspeed pitches have combined for a whiff rate over 40% over the past two seasons, and need to be a greater part of his arsenal.
I know the focus of this article has been throwing fastballs less, but Boyd is throwing it 50% of the time, which is just absurd for a pitch that doesn’t work well up in the zone. He has two elite offspeed pitches, and for him to miss bats AND not deal with the home run bug so much, throwing them more often is key. When you add in that his curveball has also performed well, you’re talking about two distinct breaking balls AND a terrific changeup. This isn’t one that needs to be overthought: throw your best pitches more and your worst pitch less. Boyd is a free agent at the end of the year, and I’d be intrigued to see if a team signs him with the intent of making this tweak, or that happens this season with manager AJ Hinch taking over in Detroit.
*All Statistics via Baseball Savant and Fangraphs