Baseball may be a sport filled with individual actions but, in a way, that makes it easier to appreciate a superstar. While one superstar doesn’t guarantee a franchise on-field success (see Mike Trout), it is easy to gravitate to a generational talent.
What is a generational talent? Simply, these are the irreplaceable players for an organization. They help sell tickets, lead the league in jerseys sold, and, most importantly, give a fanbase something that everyone deserves: hope. Sure, your team may be struggling, but getting to watch this player step to the plate or make a great play in the field keeps you engaged in the product you are watching.
As baseball competes for attention with other major sports, these are the types of superstars that they need to embrace. Younger audiences cater towards exciting young talents, and by marketing these players, the game can be a far more entertaining product.
When I think of players that fit this bill, three come to mind: Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, and Ronald Acuña. All of these players are:
23 years-old or younger
Debuted as 20-year-olds
Wasted no time dominated
Are electric players
If you wanted to grasp the value of a generational talent for a franchise, look at Fernando Tatis Jr.’s recent 14-year extension. The Padres are obviously paying for the on-field product, but they also benefit by guaranteeing that arguably the game’s most exciting player dons their jersey. Thus, the overall benefits are extreme.
Tatis Jr., Soto, and Acuña will continue to build their career resumes and will continue to be players their respective organizations can utilize to maintain hope. However, who will follow in their path? That’s the question everyone is asking, particularly as we wait for a player to exceed $400 million on a contract.
The easy answer is shortstop Wander Franco. He’s considered the consensus top prospect, and, from personal experience, I have never seen a prospect appear to be as much of a lock to produce as he has been. When you post a .408 on-base percentage, 157 wRC+, and walk more than you strike out as a 19-year-old at levels where your competition is way older, that hype is warranted.
However, Franco is a member of the Tampa Bay Rays, an organization that is unlikely to A) be easy to market and B) a team unlikely to pay him a life-time contract. Plus, he’s such an obvious answer to the question; would MVP predictions be as fun if everyone picked Mike Trout? Thus, it behooves us to search further!
That leads me to Marco Luciano. He has yet to garner the hype that elite young prospects tend to generate, but, in my opinion, he has all the makings of the generational superstar that we are looking for.
Signed by the San Francisco Giants in the 2018 international signing period, Luciano was incredibly well-regarded coming out of the Dominican Republic, and he has quickly made good on that hype. Yes, he only has 216 plate appearances in pro ball, but the numbers are eye-popping to say the least:
Rookie Ball: 178 PA, 10 HR, .322/.438/.616, .295 ISO, 15.2% BB Rate
He struggled a bit more following an aggressive promotion to Low-A as an 18-year-old, but even then, Luciano still walked at a 13.2% clip. Elite talents generally made it known right away, and it safe to say he did just that.
Still, why am I so confident that a player with just 216 professional plate appearances is such an elite talent? Let’s break it down further.
Reason 1: He’s a Very Refined Hitter
As mentioned, Luciano has demonstrated the ability to draw walks, which should allow him to post a high on-base percentage. This aligns well with most reports on him, which consider him to be as polished of a hitter as one can be for his age.
Yes, Luciano has some minor issues with contact. However, this is generally the case with most players when they first enter professional baseball. Plus, strikeouts are certainly far from a death sentence, particularly when you draw the amount of walks that Luciano does and makes as much hard contact as he importantly does.
Remember, Acuña and Tatis Jr. also had their “issues” with whiffs. That hasn’t stopped them from becoming superstars, and I’m very confident it won’t stop Luciano from following in their footsteps. When it comes to getting on base, what you’re looking for is strong pitch selection, as that leads to walks and the ability to swing at pitches that allow for hard contact. Luciano clearly has this hard-to-develop trait, and it will allow him to maximize on his tools.
Speaking of, said tools lead me to my next point.
Reason #2: His Tools Are Absolutely Electric
All you have to do is look at Luciano’s elite power numbers to know that he qualifies as a offensive slugger. It is even better when this is backed up by all other measures.
It’s almost impossible to find a scouting report on him that doesn’t state that he has elite raw power, which is what you would expect from a player who can swing the bat like this:
119 Miles Per Hour! For context, this would rank as the seventh-hardest hit home run ever in the stat cast area. Now, obviously, this wasn’t in an exact game setting (fall instructs aren’t the same as the MLB), but few players have the capability to hit a baseball this hard. In fact, max exit velocity is something that has proven to be very predictive of success in hard-hit metrics, and Luciano certainly checks that box.
Power, to be frank, is sexy and is something that is easily marketable. After all, home runs dominate highlight reels, and being able to have that power is critical. Remember, a generational talent leads people to never leave their seats when they are batting, as well as show up early to the game to watch batting practice. I don’t know about you, but if I went to a Giants game when Luciano debuts, I certainly would be making sure to watch batting practice.
Then, there’s pairing that power with stolen base ability. Being able to be a 30-30 player is an achievement that certainly helps with popularity, as we have seen with Acuna Jr. and Tatis Jr. Now, Luciano may not have the speed that they do, but he did steal eight bases in just 38 games in rookie-ball, and is seen as a very athletic player. Heck, simply having the frame that Luciano has (he’s built like a linebacker and is a rather imposing force) adds to that marketability. There is producing at a high level, but there is also something to be said, when it comes to being a popular player, to constantly looking like you are going to do damage. By checking that box, Luciano once again checks another box we’re looking for in a player that is going to dominate jersey sales.
Reason #3: He Will Be Able To Optimize Those Tools
Having the prototypical tools is great, but that certainly does not guarantee on-field success. There are plenty of players in baseball (Franchy Cordero) who have the ability to hit a baseball very hard and have overall athleticism.
It is another thing, however, to pair freaky athletic traits with actual baseball skills, and Luciano does just that. With his exceptional pitch selection skills, he’ll be able to be in favorable situations to do damage, which is something I believe generally gets overlooked with young prospects.
Pitch selection isn’t all Luciano has working in his favor. If you’re hitting the baseball on the ground, it doesn’t matter as much how hard it is. However, his swing will prevent that from being an issue:
What do I mean by this? Simply put, his swing is clearly geared to hit the baseball in the air. In fact, it adds to his marketability even more. Part of the beauty of players like Tatis Jr., Acuña, Cody Bellinger, and other young power hitters is the overall beauty of watching their swing whip through the zone. Some may see this as having a “long swing”, but by having the optimal amount of steepness and ease, Luciano’s swing is perfectly geared for hard contact.
Another issue some prospects have when it comes to optimizing on their tools is not being able to hit high-end velocity. However, by all accounts, we’re talking about a player with rare bat speed, as referred to by our former colleague Jason Pennini
“Luciano is arguably a top 30 prospect in baseball with elite bat speed and double-plus game power projection”
Pitch selection? Check. Swing geared to lift the ball? Check. Bat speed? Check, and then some. Luciano not only has all the tools you could dream of, but his actual baseball skills make it incredibly likely that those tools go to use. Remember, when we are trying to identify a generational talent, excitement factor is huge. Having these tools plays a major role in that, and there is little doubt in my mind that they will constantly be on display.
Reason #4: He Plays For A Big-Market Team
Being in a big market isn’t a necessity, but when it comes to popularity, it is quite important.
After all, here are the highest selling jerseys from 2020:
Mookie Betts
Aaron Judge
Bryce Harper
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Juan Soto
Cody Bellinger
Max Scherzer
Javier Baez
Clayton Kershaw
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Notice a common theme here? A lot of big markets are present here, with Tatis Jr. being the exception. Mike Trout plays in Los Angeles, but the Angels are obviously second-fiddle to the Dodgers, and, thus, he doesn’t even rank in the top ten in jersey sales despite being one of the greatest players of all time. Could you imagine that happening to Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, or Lebron James?
The Giants play in the west coast, but they certainly are a prestigious organization. Their World Series success over the past decade certainly helps with their popularity, and they also have experience with elite talents in their prime. Additionally, they also have a presence in New York given their ties there, which also helps in terms of their popularity.
There aren’t many organizations that can run payrolls over $200 million on an annual basis. The Giants certainly qualify. Thus, unlike Franco, if Luciano produces, there is little preventing him from signing a Tatis Jr.-style contract. Most importantly, they have the resources to build a sustainably successful organization, from the finances to a very well-regarded contract. In fact, only Evan Longoria is under contract for next season; they will be able to complement what many consider a top-ten farm system with premier talent in free agency. As we’ve seen with Trout, being able to win games is critical for maintaining marketability, and the Padres being successful has certainly helped Tatis Jr. There are no guarantees in baseball, but San Francisco is well-suited to compete for the foreseeable future.
If that happens, then Luciano is in a position very similar to Tatis Jr. Although the Giants have had previous success, they have yet to have a winning season since 2016. Could you imagine how much Luciano would be embraced by the fanbase if he played a key role in their next contending team? If his MLB ETA truly is 2023, that should be right around where San Francisco is ready to be very competitive, which just adds to Luciano’s marketability.
It is rare to not only be in a big market, but to be in one with the resources to contend where you can be the face of their next competitive window. That is where Luciano finds himself in. It is one thing to have the generational talent, but to be in a position where he can be marketed as such is critical, and if all goes well, he’ll be amongst the league leaders in jersey sales.
Overview
When I think about other players that could be the next generational talent, I don’t think any have as complete of a resume as Marco Luciano:
Wander Franco plays for the Rays
CJ Abrams doesn’t have his power and may play second-fiddle to Tatis Jr. and Machado in San Diego
Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez may be marketed as a package duo in Seattle.
Spencer Torkelson isn’t close to as athletic and is already older, age is a similar concern for Adley Rutschman
Any pitcher is hard to be marketable compared to a shortstop/third baseman that plays every day and consistently generates highlight reels.
According to Buster Olney of ESPN, the industry compares Luciano to Xander Boagerts, which is quite the lofty comparison given the high variance of prospects, particularly with one with just 216 professional plate appearances. Now, you may be thinking: how is Boagerts marketable? Think of this way: Luciano is being compared to one of the premier shortstops in baseball, and he has more overall athleticism and electricity. That is quite appealing.
If Luciano’s mean projection (likely 75th percentile given the high bust rate of prospects) is that of a four-to-five win shortstop, which is where Xander Bogaerts is and would be backed up by my prospect model, how many other prospects can compete with that? In my opinion, very few, and those that do don’t play in the market he does.
I’m not just focusing on Luciano’s on-field ability, however, which is incredible in it of itself. To be a superstar baseball player, you need to be someone that fans stay up to watch on television, buy jerseys of, and go to games early to watch you take batting practice. Luciano’s 80-grade raw power, aesthetically beautiful swing with elite bat speed, and overall electric tools all help with this. Heck, although his overall size isn’t much of a factor with his production, it certainly helps his case from a marketability standpoint that he looks built to do damage every time he comes up to the plate.
Based on his anticipated production, age, overall aesthetics, and the organization he plays for, Marco Luciano is my pick to follow Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, and Ronald Acuña Jr. as the next great superstar to debut before their 21st birthday. Will that lead to him being the first player to sign a $400 million contract? Contracts like that are always difficult to predict, and it’s hard to say that’s the case when Tatis Jr. couldn’t get there over 14 years. Prospects also are no sure thing to pan out, and Luciano still has yet to play a full season- we obviously need to temper our expectations for the moment. However, players with his profile tend to move quickly, and a player who qualifies as a “young superstar” needs to possess a range of outcomes that very few players have. Luciano, in my mind, has just that, and the game of baseball would be in a much better place if he hits on the right side of the bell curve.