The Pittsburgh Pirates opened September by bringing up top third base prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes, and giving him his first start Tuesday night. He proceeded to do very well!
The Player
Ke’Bryan Hayes is the son of long-time big league third baseman Charlie Hayes, who collected 1,379 hits in a 14-year major league career. Ke’Bryan was a highly-touted prospect coming out of high school in Texas, but as much or more for his glovework than his bat. The Pittsburgh Pirates nabbed him with the 32nd overall selection in the 2015 draft.
With a defense-first profile, Hayes often had to disprove doubters in his offensive game. He moved quickly to the upper levels of the minor leagues to do that, spending his third full season entirely in Double-A, where he knocked 45 extra-base hits and slugged .444. However, 2019 saw Hayes struggle with injury, and he couldn’t generate the same level of power. Leading some to wonder what his offensive ceiling may be.
The Rankings
This summer, Ke’Bryan Hayes ranked #70 on our top-500 dynasty prospects list. Over the offseason, Hayes was ranked #3 in our Pittsburgh Pirates top-30 prospects list and was ranked #56 in our overall top-100 prospects list.
The Tools
Hit (60) - Hayes has a compact, easy swing that consistently puts consistent bat to the ball. He has an above-average eye at the plate, and he pairs that with an aggressive approach. Which often means he swings early in the count at a pitch he can work with, rather than really working the count for the best pitch in the at-bat that he could drive. He’s consistently been a guy who adjusted well at each level, though, so it would not surprise if he developed his eye to take more walks in the future.
Power (45) - This grade is a present grade. And if you would look at Ke’Bryan Hayes and his 5’10”, 205-pound, athletically-built frame, you would wonder how he could have anything below average power. But to this point in his career, his aggressive approach at the plate has led to more doubles from his natural power rather than achieving home runs. As mentioned previously, Hayes has adjusted as he spent time at a level, so it would not surprise to see him generate more over-the-fence power a few years into his MLB career.
Speed (50) - Hayes is quite athletic. And his natural athleticism has shown through on the basepaths in the minor leagues, stealing bases at a 79 percent rate and tallying 66 stolen bases in 461 minor league games. He could lose a tick of speed as he ages, but the way he’s built, and has worked to hold his athleticism that we’ll explore in just a bit, the speed should remain at or near average.
Defense (60) - Hayes is one of those guys who is very near a 70 defense at a corner position. He’s consistently been considered one of the top defensive third basemen in the entire minor leagues. On top of the natural ability at the position, Hayes works hard to master his craft. Taking plenty of extra fielding to fine-tune his work coming in on balls, and targeting any recent issues that he’s recently had defensively in his eyes. The Pirates will very quickly have a consistent Gold Glove contender in Hayes.
Arm (60) - Part of what makes Ke’Bryan Hayes so good defensively is that he’s not just got a strong arm at the hot corner, he also is very accurate. Hayes can make any throw from third base. But most importantly, he’s going to be very accurate with anything he’s sending across the infield. Which is often as important, if not more so, than the raw arm strength.
Prediction
The Pittsburgh Pirates have every reason to get a good look at their future, and Ke’Bryan Hayes is absolutely their future. He’s the type of player that will rank very well on Wins Above Replacement rankings each year, though he might not exactly be an offensive star. His exceptional defense, and high-quality baserunning should allow him to provide plenty of value immediately as his bat adjusts.
Fantasy Impact
The typical approach for Ke’Bryan Hayes has been to struggle in the early going at a new level. And his slugging percentage picks up as he gets comfortable. His last 30 games of 2019 were a .313/.368/.438 line with eight extra-base hits. Fantasy owners in single-season leagues may want to watch from a distance, but Hayes should be a stash in any dynasty league or deep keeper league.