Earlier this year, Eddy Almaguer and I hopped on the Prospects Live Podcast to discuss the Reds’ Top 30 Prospect List I wrote. In that podcast, Eddy asked me to pick a few names outside of the top 10 to highlight, and my mind immediately went to Tejay Antone, whom I had ranked 12th.
At the time, and even now to an extent, that ranking was very aggressive. My reasoning for ranking Antone that high had to do with my belief that solid backend starting pitcher/reliever types are underrated, especially given how often pitching prospects fail. I saw Antone as a guy who I expected to be pretty good, but would be surprised to see him become anything more.
Fast forward to present day and Tejay Antone has been one of the bright spots in a fairly disappointing Reds’ season so far. Through seven appearances (two starts), Antone has been dominant, allowing just six runs on eight hits through 20.1 IP while striking out 27. While this may seem like me patting myself on the back as part of a “I was right about Tejay Antone” victory lap, that’s not actually the case. While I may have been right about Antone being better than others realize, I was still very wrong about him as a player, and it’s because I was wrong that I’m now even more excited about Tejay Antone.
“Adding four ticks to your fastball a single offseason isn’t unheard of, but to do so at 26, a few years removed from Tommy John, is huge. ”
If you haven’t read my Reds’ Top 30 Prospects List (or at least Antone’s write-up), I recommend doing that now since I’m going to be referencing my evaluation in this article. In that write-up, as well as the accompanying podcast, I gave my reasons for liking Antone at the time, as well as some limitations I thought he may have. By evaluating the claims I made about Antone I hope to provide a better idea of where Antone is now in his development and where he can go in the future.
New Velocity
Ironically, one of the things I was most wrong about with Antone is actually one of the reasons I was a big fan of him. Earlier in the year, I hyped Antone up as a high floor, low ceiling prospect; meaning that I thought his potential was fairly limited, but that I’d still expect him to be a decent major leaguer. While the latter still holds true, Antone has far more potential than I originally expected.
There were a few reasons that I saw Antone’s potential as a bit limited, but the main ones were his age and his velocity. While his age is still a concern, as he will likely be a 27-year-old rookie next year, his velocity completely turned over a new leaf. In my evaluation of him earlier this year, I stated that Antone was a guy who sat around 91-93, while hitting 96. For a prospect that is definitely on the low end, and while I thought Antone may add a few ticks to his velocity, I would’ve never expected him to come out in 2020 averaging 95.4 MPH on his fastball. Adding four ticks to your fastball a single offseason isn’t unheard of, but to do so at 26 a few years removed from Tommy John is huge.
Spin and Movement
Velocity isn’t the only thing that Antone saw huge improvements with in regards to his fastball. Antone’s spin-rate on his sinker, in similar fashion to his velocity, saw massive improvements this offseason. Despite being around 2,200 RPM on his sinker in 2019, Antone has averaged 2,635 RPM on his sinker up until this point. While his velocity improvement was impressive, adding 400+ RPM to your fastball is arguably much more rare.
While 2,200 RPM and 91-93 MPH were both below average marks for a fastball, Antone now ranks 3rd in spin rate and 15th in velocity among pitchers who’ve thrown at least 250 sinkers this year. Granted, with sinkers spin-rate isn’t generally as important as with other pitches, especially since it’s common for guys with extremely low spin-rate sinkers to be very effective (i.e. Grienke and Hendricks), but Antone’s sinker is more like a traditional two-seamer, so how much the ball spins drives the movement, as Antone is looking to let the ball slide out of the tips of his fingers and then dive armside. As a result of the improvements he’s made, Antone’s sinker has been great at generating weak contact, as hitters have averaged an 86.3 MPH exit velo against his sinker.
Unhittable Slider
Despite the improvements Antone has made to his sinker, it is nowhere close to his best pitch. Antone’s slider has not only been his best pitch, it’s been almost unhittable. While it hasn’t changed much in velocity or spin-rate, Antone reworked his already solid slider in the offseason, and big league hitters have not had an answer.
The biggest difference for Antone is the angle at which he releases it, as it has a very unique, sharp break down and to the left. Antone’s 6-foot-4 frame and elite extension allows him to get on top of the ball as he releases it. So far, Antone has allowed a .189 xwOBA against his slider, with a ridiculous 52.5 whiff% while throwing the pitch 42.8% of the time. That .189 xwOBA ranks 12th among all pitchers who’ve thrown 100 or more sliders, right behind Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin.
ROunding out the arsenal
While his sinker and slider account for 85 percent of his pitches, Antone also has a very solid curveball that he mixes in a decent amount, and a changeup that he uses scarcely against lefties. Neither pitch is a standup secondary like his slider, but both are solid options for him to keep in his back pocket.
In my original write-up I claimed that Antone likely needs to improve his changeup in order to overcome his struggles against lefties, and while Antone hasn’t struggled against lefties this season by any means, I do still believe he could use some work on his changeup if he is going to be effective against lefties in the long term. Either way, as of right now it’s safe to say that my claim about Antone having “average stuff” is definitely more than outdated. My claim that he “still won’t be a big strikeout guy” was also definitely incorrect, as Antone currently sports a 34.6 K%. While he’s struggled a bit with walks so far, with a 11.5 BB%, he still has good command and locates his pitches fairly consistently. His tendency to try to paint corners and get hitters to chase outside the zone will mean that he likely will never post exceptional walk totals, but I do see them going down a bit in the future.
“ ...I think he’s a must-own arm in almost all dynasty leagues. ”
Antone = good
While Tejay Antone may have been one of my favorite Reds’ prospects eight months ago, he’s a completely different pitcher now and I couldn’t be more excited.
Antone of 2019 was the perfect back-end of the rotation prospect. Decent but unspectacular stuff and control, combined with a big frame and clean mechanics; Antone stuck out as a guy who I thought could make an impact for the Reds’ as a Ross Stripling-type swingman. With his massively improved stuff and dominance at the Major League level, combined with his already promising traits, we have to start re-evaluating Antone differently as a prospect.
I think Antone has already shown us that his ceiling is much higher than we originally anticipated. While I originally gave him a grade of 45 for both ceiling and realistic, I would probably have those at 55 and 50 respectively now. Antone has always had the traits of an MLB starter, so his improvements have me much more confident in his ability to develop into a solid mid-rotation starter.
With how well he’s already pitching in the majors, it’s reasonable to argue that Antone’s ceiling is even higher, especially if he can continue to develop the changeup. Age is the only major concern for Antone at this point, as 26 is quite old for a prospect. If Antone were a few years younger he would be one of the top prospects in all of baseball, but being 26 also isn’t the end of the world, especially given how mature he is. Even with how good he’s been, Tejay Antone is massively underrated and could be a big part of the Reds’ starting rotation down the line. If I were to re-do the Reds’ list today, I would put Antone at #6, and I think he’s a must-own arm in almost all dynasty leagues.