The Marlins made some headlines at the deadline last year, where they acquired the Bahamian shortstop in a surprise straight swap for RHP Zac Gallen. Gallen was one of baseball’s biggest surprise, dominating what was then a juiced PCL environment; But the Marlins felt they had enough depth to gamble on a high-upside play.
The Fish are right in the thick of the NL postseason race at 16-15, 2.5 games back in the NL East. While their young staff has flourished, the bats have been ice cold of late, slashing .237/.313/.367 on the year (including their 7-1 start where they consistently flirted with 10 runs in multiple games). The fish helped bolster their offense in acquiring Starling Marte from Arizona. Jonathan Villar, who had been a bit of an everywhere guy, was dealt to Toronto (.256/.313/.342; 12th percentile in exit velo, 7th percentile in xwOBA) in exchange for a PTBNL. With the struggling Villar shipped out, the door was opened for the Marlins to bring up a guy that many have compared to a young Javier Baez (21 HR, 16 SB, 13 BB% for Chisholm in 2019).
THE RANKINGS
Jazz Chisholm ranked 4th on the Miami Marlins Top 30 list and 43rd in our Top 500 Fantasy list. He was 74th on our Pre-Season Top 100 Prospects list.
THE TOOLS
Hit (40 present/50 future): The only thing preventing Chisholm from being a fringe top 20 prospect is he struggles to hit for average. Prior to his trade to the Marlins organization, Chisholm slashed a poor .204/.305/.427 123 strikeouts in 89 games played. While he can drive the ball very well into the gaps and out of the park, he is not consistent enough to be considered a top of the line prospect in the hit department. It’s worth nothing he improved greatly after being dealt to Miami (.284/.383/.494) in a very small sample size of 81 at bat). The upward trend is a good sign, which is why I have his future hit playing to a 50, though a more conservative projection would have him as a 45.
Power (55 present/60 future): What makes Chisholm a ridiculously high ceiling prospect is his power. Despite coming in at 5’11’’ 165, Chisholm hit 21 home runs in Double-A last year. Often times compared to Javier Baez in regards to raw power, Chisholm is a guy that you would expect to provide minimal pop. At only 165 lbs, I feel Chisholm still has room to add mass, which could lead to even further power. The amount of power he gets from his backside and post load is crazy, and I would expect him to be a 20 home run kind of guy trending towards 30 if he continues to develop properly.
Defense/Arm (50/55): Chisholm is an average defender. While he doesn’t necessarily look like a gold glover, he projects to be a reliable guy on the middle infield. I rate him with an upside of an eventual 55, as I feel he will be considered an above average defender- he has shown his ability to flash leather in the minors, and doesn't make errors often. Jazz has an above average arm. His room for growth and expected gain in both lower and upper body strength as he comes into his mid 20s should see his arm turn into a plus one, though nothing elite.
Speed (60/60): Another aspect of Chisholm’s game that has helped him become a consensus top 100 prospect is his ability to run. Chisholm stole 16 bases on 20 attempts last year and has continued to refine his approach on the bases. While it is more of a ceiling than anything else, Chisholm does have 20 stolen bases a year at the Major League level in him.
PREDICTION
Chisholm will have every opportunity over the next couple of weeks to earn a spot as the everyday second baseman for Miami. With Jon Berti the only other option (not a very high ceiling), I would expect manager Don Mattingly to play him every day now that he is up. He will probably slot in towards the bottom part of the order. This season the Marlins have been aggressively stealing bases and Chisholm should benefit. Jazz has the potential to springboard a Marlins offense that has struggled of late, and if he doesn't play well, he won’t produce any less than Berti. I expect him to get a lot of run.
FANTASY IMPACT
Chisholm is worth a pickup in all 12+ team leagues. The Marlins have made it clear that when they call up prospects they will get playing time. With Isan Diaz working his way back (having never earned the role completely himself), Jazz has an opportunity to become the starter on a team chasing the postseason. I would expect him to hit a few homers (3-4) and swipe a few bags (similar range) in September, though strikeouts will be important to track, as he can be prone to whiffs. He’s known as a high risk, high reward prospect, and his fantasy profile will probably look very similar.