Dynasty Baseball Weekly Notes: 6/23 to 6/29

Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.

Between a young pitcher cementing himself as a future ace, the rise of slugging lefty outfielders, and a deep dive into struggling high-end third basemen, there is a lot to get to this week. Without further adieu, let us get into the notes!

Lefty Power Outfielders On The Rise

It has been quite the month to be a power corner outfielder hitting from the left side. After rough stretches to start the season, Kyle Schwarber, Joey Gallo, and Mike Yastrzemski have all dominated recently. Is this bounce back for real? Let’s take a closer look.

With just a 91 wRC+ in the 60-game 2020 season, Kyle Schwarber did not perform at the levels he was expecting to, and found himself non-tendered by the Cubs. Nevertheless, he was able to find a new home quickly, signing for $10 million with the Nationals. Playing on a one-year deal, it was clear he wanted to use this year to improve his stock on the free-agent market as a former fourth overall pick. Well, that is going…. quite well! At the moment, the 28-year-old boasts a career-high 135 wRC+, .371 weighted on-base average (wOBA), and appears to have become the best version of himself. So, why has Schwarber rediscovered his power? Really, it was never gone to begin with. That said, his current 34.7% fly-ball rate would be a career high. As evident with his 17.4% barrel rate, this is a hitter who could do some serious damage when he combines his raw power with optimal contact trajectory. With a 132 wRC+ from THE BAT for the rest of the year, there’s nothing to suggest that Schwarber won’t continue to put himself in a position to earn a much better contract next offseason.

Then, there’s Gallo, who, like Schwarber, is a former top prospect with very lofty expectations. Really, with a career 22-degree launch angle, the only thing loftier may be his swing! Gallo too didn’t have a great 2020 season, posting a poor 86 wRC+, and while a quality player for each of the two months (.336 wOBA April and .348 wOBA May), failed to be the dominant hitter many were hoping he’d be. That has changed in June, however. During this month, the Rangers slugger’s wOBA is up to .422, and he’s hit four home runs in the past week.

Schwarber’s surge has been yielded by just continued power. Gallo, on the other hand, is doing something he doesn’t always do- making contact:

And putting the ball in the air:

chart-387.png

That is a tremendous combination! If the season ended today, Gallo’s 31.1% strikeout rate would be the lowest of his career, as would his 15% swinging strike rate. If this trend continues, his batting-average floor becomes much higher. Simply not being a liability in that category, considering his elite power and surprising stolen-base ability, could greatly boost his fantasy value. I’ll be monitoring this situation closely.

Finally, there’s a player who definitely did not have a poor 2020 season, and that’s Mike Yastrzemski. With a 159 wRC+ and a .407 wOBA last year, the 30-year-old was in MVP conversations last year, but a lackluster .323 wOBA in April had many worried, considering his overall small sample size of production. Now, however, his .345 wOBA is much more in line with expectations, and if anything, that number will only continue to increase- 141 wRC+ in June. Why am I so confident in Yastrzemski? It all comes down to the approach. Last season, it’s safe to say the 30-year-old was as passive as it gets, swinging at only 58.5% of pitches in the zone and yielding a 20.8% called-strike rate. After swinging at just 62% of pitches in the zone the first two months, that number is up to 70.1% in June, which correlates with an increase in power and a decrease in strikeout rate.

Why is this the case? Simply put, being too passive can work against you, as it puts you in too many two-strike counts. Yastrzemski may be aware of this, as we look at his in-zone swing rate when ahead in the count:

In 2019, Yastrzemski’s swinging strike rate (11.5%) was too high. In 2020, he was too passive. Now, however, he’s become the most optimized version of himself. We can debate whether him potentially walking less makes him less valuable in-real life, but, for fantasy, him hitting for a high average and for power is critical. Add in a top-of-the-lineup presence for the Giants, and he’s someone I’d want on my team right now.

Update on Second Basemen: Don’t Get Too Lowe, Be In The Crone Zone!

Second base is a rather scarce position in fantasy. Thus, when two lefty-hitting second basemen, Brandon Lowe and Jake Cronenworth, got off to quieter starts than expected, there was some reason to be concerned- each didn’t have much of a track record of proven success. That said, both players are on the uptick right now.

Let us start with Lowe, the more fascinating case for fantasy. As of now, the 26-year-old not only has just a 105 wRC+, but is hitting just .203; far from ideal for fantasy purposes. That said, THE BAT X still projects a .349 wOBA for him the rest of the season and a much higher .245 batting average, which, when you look deeper, makes sense. There’s obviously bad luck factoring in here, with his .253 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) well below his career norms, but that’s not all. Since he pulls about 45% of the balls he hits, ground balls are extremely likely to turn into outs. Thus, it is very encouraging to see his ground ball rate go from 51.8% in May to 38% this month. Meanwhile, his line-drive rate (26%) is much more in line with career norms, which should help with the BABIP. I’m not saying Lowe will completely match his lofty projection, but there is a lot to be encouraged about right now. I wouldn’t be shocked if he is on the verge of a major surge.

That takes us right into the Crone Zone, which is exactly where Jake Cronenworth is in right now, hitting four home runs in the past week. With elite contact skills, stolen bases, and a top-of-the-lineup presence for a high-powered Padres lineup, in addition to positional versatility, there’s a lot Cronenworth has to offer as is. Yet, earlier in the season, power was a major question mark. Well, that may be changing. After posting just a .140 isolated power (ISO) over the first two months, that number is up to .299 in June. I’d expect THE BAT X’s .188 ISO projection of Cronenworth to be a very reasonable expectation moving forward. If so, this is THE young second baseman I want to roster in dynasty leagues.

Struggling Third Basemen: Why I’m Optimistic About Matt Chapman, Confused About Anthony Rendon

It’s been a tough ride for Matt Chapman recently. The 28-year-old missed the end of the 2020 season after undergoing hip surgery, and wasn't the same player early on, failing to post a 100 wRC+ in either of the first two months of the season. Now, though, that number is up to 138 in June! So, is Chapman back? I’m optimistic.

A major issue for Chapman has been high lack of contact ability and lower batting average. Those numbers are both heading in the right direction as of late. However, what intrigues me more is his power surge. This is not a player who looked healthy earlier on, and it clearly showed vs fastballs- he couldn’t catch up to higher velocity. That appears to be changing, though:

That is what I like to see! Chapman appears to be fully healthy, making him a priority acquisition while his value is still diminished.

Then, there’s Anthony Rendon and his confusing 84 wRC+. THE BAT X projects a 134 wRC+ for the rest of the season, so, clearly, all is good? Really, it’s just difficult to figure out what has gone wrong. Although Rendon is striking out (16.2%) and chasing (22%) more than normal, those are still strong rates. Really, it’s just a lack of power - 4.9% barrel, .127 ISO - which makes this even more puzzling. Less line drives have been a major problem (22%) for him, so will that regress positively? From his chart splits, it’s mainly a problem when it comes to fastballs at the top of the zone. Is this a mechanical issue that can be fixed, him playing hurt, regression with age, or all of the above. That’s the puzzling question that is almost impossible to answer. There’s no way I’d be trading Rendon right now given the impact his struggles will have on his trade value, though, so hopefully we’ll get answers soon.

Take a Bow, Tarik Skubal

The Astros are not a team pitchers want to face right now. This season, they have the highest wRC+ (125) AND are striking out (18.8%) the lowest of any team. In other words, there’s little to expect with you pitchers when facing them.

Well, unless you’re Tarik Skubal of course. By allowing just one run, striking out nine, and inducing a … wait for it…. 48% whiff rate and 36% called-strike-whiff (CSW%) rate, the 24-year-old had arguably the top performance a pitcher has had against this powerhouse offense this season. At this point, though, should you be surprised?

After a poor April (6.14 ERA), Skubal has struck out over 30% of the batters he’s faced the past two months, and it’s clear that he’s become a different pitcher. See, given that he heavily relied on fastballs throughout his minor-league career, there were concerns about if he’d have a diverse enough pitch mix to succeed in the majors. Now, he has a complete five-pitch mix: fastball, sinker, slider, changeup, curveball.

The best part about Skubal’s arsenal is that each pitch serves a purpose. Fastballs at the top of the zone to induces whiffs, sinkers for called strikes, sliders to get whiffs versus lefties, changeups and curves to righties. That’s perfect! He’s now inducing less fly balls and attacking the zone more than ever, when you add it up, leads to a pitcher who has discovered his true form. Walks (10.7% BB) remain a slight concern, but this is the type of power lefty that is going to rack up a lot of fantasy value for years to come. To morph into a different pitcher on the fly is absurd, and speaks a lot to his brilliance, as well as an organization that deserves more recognition for their pitching development.

Random Relievers Of The Week: Barrel Neutralizers

Sinkers may not induce whiffs at the rate that other pitches do, but that doesn’t mean they serve no purpose being a part of a pitcher’s arsenal. In fact, when used properly, they can be an excellent barrel-neutralizing weapon, which takes us into our relievers of the week.

The Indians have quite the young bullpen to build on, but a player who is going well under the radar is Nick Sandlin. In 20.2 innings pitched this season, the former second-round pick has a 40% strikeout rate. Yes, you read that correctly! Meanwhile, he’s also only allowing barrels at a 2.7% rate thus far.

I love how Sandlin’s arsenal works. His slider (50.7% whiff) and fastball (35% whiff) are built to miss bats, while his sinker (average -12 degree launch angle) gets him to league average groundball rates. It really allows him to have success regardless of the count, and makes me very optimistic. It is rare to be able to strike batters out and induce ground balls, and his ability to do both makes me think he’ll see him only continue to be utilized in more high-leverage situations moving forward. Also, enjoy his absurdly-low release height:

Yeah, he’s good.

Ranger Suarez, on the other hand, relies much more on his sinker, throwing it near half of the time. As expected, in 29 innings pitched, the 25-year-old is inducing a lot of ground balls, though to do so at a 67.1% is incredible- it isn’t a shocker he’s allowing barrels just 2.7% of the time. In fact, 56% of his batted balls are defined as weak contact or topped balls. Add in a 23% strikeout rate, and everything is clicking for the Phillies lefty.

Sure, Suarez’s numbers in the minors weren’t dominant, but that came as a starter. His ability to work multiple innings (29 IP in 17 games) is quite useful for deeper fantasy leagues, and perhaps he even gets a chance to start at some point- this would make his ground-ball inducing abilities very useful. I’m excited to watch him continue to work moving forward:

Other Notes

  • Wander Franco has a 82 wRC+ through his first week, so clearly he’s a bust! In all seriousness, it’s easy to see why scouts admire the young shortstop. His plate discipline stands out, and although he had some small issues versus higher velocity fastballs, this looks like a player that is going to be a very productive player.

  • Speaking of recent debuts, Jesus Sanchez is a player I am very fascinated by. The sprint speed (75th percentile) and raw power (83rd percentile) combination is super fun, and it’s impossible to overlook the numbers (172 wRC+, 19.3% K rate) he put up in Triple-A this season. With Corey Dickerson now in Toronto, it’s Sanchez’s time to prove himself.

  • How about Kyle Muller! The Braves are in need of starting pitching, so to see the 23-year-old lefty allow just one run in nine innings, while striking out 12, has to be a major sigh of relief for them. Given his inconsistent walk rates in the minors and early trends, I’d surmise Muller is someone that relies on a lot of chases to have success, ala Blake Snell. That isn’t a particularly bad thing, though, especially when you the breaking balls he has. Unlike some other recent debuts I’ve been skeptical of, this is a player I’m buying into much more.

  • In need of second basemen in deep leagues? Here are some names for you: Tony Kemp, Willi Castro, and Ramon Urias. Kemp has a .401 on-base percentage, walks more than he strikes out, and will always overachieve his expected power numbers based on high many pulled fly balls he hits. Meanwhile, Castro should run a much higher BABIP than his current .270 number, steals bases, and has enough power. As for Urias, he’s a much deeper stash, though he’s been a minor-league performer and his power is intriguing at a position that doesn’t provide much of it.