Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.
Between a young pitcher establishing himself as a high-end contributor, a struggling ace and top prospect, and some interesting “pop-up” pitchers, there is a lot to get to this week. Without further adieu, let us get into the notes!
The Rise of Jonathan India
Heading into the season, it surprised many that Jonathan India cracked the Reds’ opening day roster. Drafted with the 5th overall pick in the 2018 draft, many were disappointed with the 24-year-old’s overall lack of power, while his overall prospect buzz seemed to take a hit. However, the Reds currently are an above .500 team, and he’s played a major role hitting at the top of their lineup.
As expected, India hasn’t hit for a lot of power (.134 ISO), but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a 118 wRC+. How? A .382 on-base percentage, boosted both by great plate discipline (12.5% BB) and enough contact ability (22.1% K). As made clear with The BAT X’s 111 wRC+ projection, too, it doesn’t appear he’ll be slowing down any time soon.
What has been very impressive with India is the consistent adjustments he’s made to the major-league level. After striking out 25.6% of the time in April, he’s cut that rate down to under 21% in the following two months. Furthermore, his walk rate (5.6% April, 12.7% May, 15.7% June) continues to improve. That’s the type of on-base profile you want, and there should be more power to come. His 10.7% HR/FB rate is on the low side for a 9% barrel rate, especially with him being a pull-happy hitter.
In OBP leagues, India is a premier asset for your team. Even in traditional leagues, though, he still holds an extensive amount of value. He should be able to post high batting averages on balls in play (BABIP) due to his 90th percentile sprint speed and lack of pop ups (4.5%), the power shouldn’t be a concern given the ballpark he plays, and he’s already stolen 7 bases. Meanwhile, due to his on-base abilities, he’s hitting leadoff for a strong offense; that’s great for runs scored. Players without elite raw power may not be super exciting, but finding those who can contribute in every category is very rare. India provides that, and I highly recommend him as a player to target ahead of this year’s trade deadline regardless of your team’s contention window.
What To Make of Zach Thompson, Sammy Long
Statistics take a long time to stabilize. Yet, fantasy team owners don’t have the luxury to sit back and wait for players to establish enough of a track record to feel confident in their abilities. As such, we’re forced to make decisions on the fly when players make their debuts.
In redraft formats, the chances are that Zach Thompson and Sammy Long have already been claimed off waivers, and will continue to be rostered for the rest of the year. In dynasty, though, owners of these players may be wondering what to do with them; sell high while they are performing well, or trust them to be potential pieces for the future? Thus, it makes sense to assess the legitimacy of their first month of their MLB careers.
Of the two, Thompson is the pitcher I have more trust in moving forward. The 27-year-old has helped solidify a very exciting Marlins rotation, posting a 32% strikeout rate and 24.7% K-BB ratio in the first five starts (24 IP) of his career. After spending the first seven years of his career in the minor leagues with the White Sox, he signed with Miami as a minor-league free agent, and immediately made his presence felt in Triple-A with a 30.4% strikeout rate and 27.5% K-BB ratio in 15 innings. Strangely, those outings came strictly as a reliever, albeit in multi-inning outings. In fact, the last time he was utilized as a starting pitcher in minors was 2017. Yet, he’s worked 6 innings in each of his past three starts, and the results are hard to ignore. A 14.8% swinging strike rate has allowed him to boast a very high 31.7% called-strike-whiff rate (CSW%), and he’s made the most of a true three-pitch arsenal. His cutter, fastball, and curveball each have above-average whiff rates, yet serve much different purposes; the cutter is utilized to induce soft contact, the fastball more so for called strikes on the outer half, and the curveball as a putaway pitch. As such, he doesn’t throw any pitch more than 35% of the time, which makes it much more difficult to get a read on him and increases his ability to work deeper into games.
That’s less of the case with Sammy Long, who relies on one pitch: his curveball. The pitch has allowed a .139 weighted on-base average, and is the only above-average pitch in his arsenal. It’s easy to see why just based on the eye test:
The pitch is very effective both in terms of whiffs and called strikes, but with his lackluster fastball (11% whiff) and changeup (15.8% put-away), he’s really struggled to face right-handed hitters (.368 wOBA vs .142 wOBA against lefties). Meanwhile, his game-to-game performances are very volatile based on the curveball- he’s only pitched over 5 innings in one of his five starts. On the bright side, he started utilizing a harder slider in his last outing more often, yet mainly used it against lefties. As such, he’s at best a matchup streamer that can’t be started against RHH heavy lineups. I worry about his ability to consistently rely on called strikes (19.6%), and it’s likely he’s much more of a bulk option moving forward. With that in mind, Thompson offers the much better chance of being a “true” starting pitcher long-term. I’d likely hold onto him, whereas I’d be much less attached to Long. With debuts, look for a strong, diverse arsenal. Thompson has that, and I’m very intrigued about his outlook moving forward as a late-blooming pitcher.
What To Make of Matt Manning’s Early Struggles
Tigers fans have been able to sit back and enjoy the progression of young pitchers Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize, yet that wasn’t all they had to look forward to. With the debut of Matt Manning, the hope was that their rotation of the future would be solidified. Sadly, things haven’t gone quite as planned early on.
In the first four starts of his career, Manning has struck out 7.4% of the batters he’s faced and has a 7.94 ERA. That is less than ideal, to say the least. So, what has gone wrong thus far for the tall right-hander, and can he fix it? Let’s take a closer look.
We talk about pitchers having a deep arsenal, but Manning hasn’t shown it thus far. He’s relied on his fastball 64% of the time, but, the problem is, the pitch doesn’t stand out. It’s a low-spin (1991 RPM) pitch with below-average movement both vertically and horizontally, and has yielded just a 13.7% whiff rate. Yet, none of his other pitches have performed well either — he’s hung them tremendously and hasn’t missed bats with them. That said, this is a pitcher that missed a lot of bats in the minors, so it’d be silly to assume he continues to struggle this badly. Each of the four offense he’s faced (Angels, Cardinals, Indians, White Sox) rank above-average in contact rate, and you’d figure that his command gets better over time.
At the same time, I wouldn’t say that Manning’s stock should be completely unchanged from his prospect days. I’m legitimately concerned about his fastball, in addition to an incomplete overall arsenal. Ultimately, I think his mean outcome is much closer to a capable middle-of-the-rotation starter (a la Anthony DeSclafani) than the frontline starter many came to expect. Remember, Logan Gilbert struggled early on too. Now, Gilbert also had a much clearer path to success with better command and a much more vertical fastball, but anyone who is writing off Manning too much would be reacting too much to a small sample. In a way, I could see this working in both directions. Manning could be a decent buy-low candidate for those willing to write him off completely, yet also might be worth selling for those who are still attached to his prospect pedigree. He truly is an interesting case, with a deeper arsenal being his clear path to improvement.
Is Hyun-Jin Ryu On The Decline?
Based on his ability to lean on an array of softer offerings, including a superb changeup, many believed Hyun-Jin Ryu would continue to have success even as he continued to age later into his 30s. After all, he had posted a FIP of 3.10 or less in back-to-back seasons, limits his walks, and didn’t seem like a candidate to take a step back this season.
Instead, the 34-year-old has seen his FIP (4.19) rise as a result of far less strikeouts. He’s only striking out 19.4% of the batters he’s faced, is getting less swinging strikes (9.5%) than ever, and he hasn’t suppressed hard contact (8.7% barrel) the way he normally does. Meanwhile, the projections are mixed on his future outlook. ZiPS, for instance, thinks he’s closer to a 3.87 FIP pitcher the rest of the way, while THE BAT has him at a 4.20 FIP.
Which projection do I side with? Unfortunately, I have to lean with the 4.20 FIP projection. At the moment, Ryu has lost complete feel of his changeup, inducing whiffs just 19.4% of the time as opposed to 30.6% in 2020. Yet, his location of the pitch, nor the pitch’s metrics, have changed at all. Maybe more fastballs and less sinkers is causing the changeup to play worse? It’s a bizarre scenario overall, and without there being an error in his process, it’s hard to know when it will come back. Considering he’s already 34-years-old, not knowing the value he provides for this season is concerning, especially in a tough division. I definitely think this is quite concerning moving forward; expect ERAs closer to the high 3.00s/low 4.00s as opposed to the sub-3.00 numbers we became accustomed to.
Random Relievers Of The Week
It’s time to party with my favorite segment of the notes- random relievers! This week, we’ll take a look at a couple former Brewers arms who are thriving as multi-inning relievers elsewhere and have youth on their side!
Let’s start in Tampa Bay, where Drew Rasmussen finds himself after being acquired by the Rays in the Willy Adames trade. In 22.2 innings pitched this season, the the 25-year-old is striking out 34.6% of the batters he has faced, and has been absurdly productive in the minors, even when utilized as a starter. How does he do it? A completely vertical arsenal. His fastball and slider each rate well-above average in terms of vertical movement, and each are extremely effective when it comes to missing bats. I will note his spin rates are noticeably down, yet it hasn’t hampered his performance. Fastballs away and a buried slider is a beautiful combination, and I expect him to provide value as a bulk pitcher for the Rays moving forward.
Rasmussen isn’t the only former Brewer shining- the Dodgers appear to have a found a gem in Phil Bickford. In 19.1 innings this season, the 25-year-old has posted a 24.4% K-BB ratio, in addition to a 14.9% swinging strike rate- those are intriguing numbers. Interestingly, Bickford is certainly a noteworthy name. A former first-round pick of the Giants, he was expected to find success as a starting pitcher, yet was moved to the bullpen shortly after being acquired by Milwaukee. Between PED suspensions and other circumstances, he had seen his development hindered, but, hey, relievers develop at any time, right? This season, he’s inducing whiff rates over 33% on both his fastball and slider, and just look at the life of his fastball coming from such a low release:
Well done, Andrew Friedman.
Bonus reliever of the week! We have no resume to lean on with Jake Cousins, formerly of the Independent league, but the 26-year-old has been dominant in the first 6.1 innings of his career in the MLB. Will this sustain? I don’t know, but look at this slider!
>
My goodness!
Other Notes
The Phillies bullpen has been an issue for them all year, which means trying out different options at the end of games. One of our random relievers of last week, Ranger Suarez, has now gotten multiple save opportunities, and needs to be added if he continues to get high-leverage situations. Meanwhile, young lefty Bailey Falter has an intriguing profile with a fastball that gets 3 extra MPH of perceived velocity due to his extension, and he’s backed up his productive Triple-A stint with a 31.9% CSW thus far. As someone who pounds the zone and seems to be difficult to deal with based on his extension, he offers a lot of intrigue as someone the team could also stretch out and use as a starting pitcher.
Quietly, Hunter Renfroe is having a fantastic season. Yes, his 109 wRC+ and .198 ISO are not off the charts, but his 15.2% HR/FB rate would by far be the lowest of his career, so there’s that. He’s become much less passive, especially when behind, leading to far less called strikes and much lower 21.3% strikeout rate. The 29-year-old’s solid-enough average and power makes him an under-the-radar addition to help solidify your outfield.
Over time, expect 24-year-old lefty Patrick Sandoval to make good on his 32% CSW with more strikeouts, as well as his 22.2% HR/FB rate to come down. That makes him someone to try to acquire now, while you might want to not do the same with Joe Ross. The 28-year-old has been tremendous for the Nationals this season, but also has relied mainly on called strikes (18.3%). Maybe he can get away with this, but with the amount of sinkers he’s leaving over the heart of the plate, it’s worth noting his current numbers (4.02 ERA, 17.1% K-BB) may be difficult to sustain.
A potential buy-low target? Cubs center fielder Ian Happ. The lowest BABIP and HR/FB rate of his career has taken away from the fact he’s cut down on his swinging strikes (12.4%) noticeably, and he got back to more aggression (66% zone swing rate) in June after being far too passive (54.8% zone swing) in May. With less called strikes will mean less strikeouts, leading to a very nice OBP/power combination worth investing in.