Pavin Smith

Pavin Smith - Scouting Report


Rank History
Year Team Position Team Rank OFP
2021 ARI 1B/OF 17 45

Grades Update: Dec 2020
OFP Role Hit Power Field Arm Run
45 40 55 50 45 50 45

Dec 2020 Report

Evaluator: Robert James

Age: 25 yr
Height: 6-2
Weight: 210 lbs
Hits/Throws: L/L
Acquired: 2017 1st
RuleV: On 40-Man

Physical Description: Tall, solid frame. He actually is a bit leaner now than when he was drafted. He's never been a great athlete but has been moving much better. Average build, he's done physically developing.

Hit: Closed stance, standing almost straight up. Pre-load the hands are slightly above the shoulders with the bat resting on the shoulders almost parallel to the ground. No leg kick, instead he twists his foot and gets his toe down as the bat comes through the zone. Stays on the ball very well and tries to spray line drives to all fields. When Smith is shifted to pull in the IF, he will often try to go up the middle and beat the shift. Controls the strike zone and walks nearly as much as he strikes out. When he was drafted he made a ton of weak groundball contact to the pull side but has tweaked his swing and now hits the ball in the air much more. As part of his swing adjustment he improved his bat path and now his swing takes a much better path through the zone that allows him to drive the ball in the air. For as good as his approach is, the numbers have never really caught up as he hasn't hit for a great batting average yet. Grade: 55

Power: Smith doesn't generate nearly as much power as a 6'2" first base prospect should. Also, since his approach focuses on using the whole field power isn't a big part of his game. However, his exit velos are average and I've seen him hit the ball hard His power is almost entirely to the pull field. Until now, his power has been slightly below average but I think it will hit a tick higher as he hits his stride. Grade: 50

Field: Smith went from a below average defender at 1B to a guy who can play in the OF corners. He's not a great athlete and will never be a plus defender but should be right around average in the corners and at 1B Grade: 45

Arm: Smith has an overall average arm which was more than good enough for first. Now that he’s playing the outfield more the arm plays better in left. More than enough for left field but would be stretched in right. Grade: 50

Run: Much like the arm, if we graded Smith as a first baseman his below average speed is a non-issue, but as an outfielder he’s going to have limited range due to his below average foot speed. He gets out of the box well but is a below average runner underway. Smart enough baserunner to nab the occasional bag, but stolen bases aren’t a big part of his game. Grade: 45

Overall: Smith was the second of four nontraditional, "hit over power" 1B who were drafted in the first round of the 2017 draft (behind Brendan McKay- who's primarily a SP- but ahead of Evan White and Nick Pratto). A curious pick at the time, Smith immediately underwhelmed as not only did he not hit for much power but he didn't hit for average either. However, starting in the second half of 2018, Smith started to turn things around and now lifts the ball much more than he had. Arizona also improved his value by getting him work in the OF corners where the bar isn't as high for his bat. There's still no real carrying tool here, so he's probably a bench bat but if he can tap into his power a bit more he can be an low-end regular in LF. Regardless, it's an MLB profile and he'll have a long career as no worse than a lefty bench bat

OFP: 45
Role: 40 - Below Avg. Player - Bench/Platoon
Risk: Low