Rank History
| Year | Team | Position | Team Rank | OFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | ATL | OF | 2 | 55 |
Grades Update: Dec 2020
| OFP | Role | Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 60 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 60 | 60 |
Dec 2020 Report
Evaluator: Geoff Pontes
Age: 22 yr
Height: 6-2
Weight: 185 lbs
Hits/Throws: S/R
Acquired: 2017 Draft, Round 2
RuleV: 2021
Physical Description: A tall, lean, athletic build. Not terribly broad, which leads to some questions around how much projection remains. Wiry strength, with good muscle, high waisted, with little concerns over long term maintenance.
Hit: Switch-hitter that's an obvious natural left handed hitter. Struggles to replicate contact and power against left handed pitching on the right hand side of the plate. He setups, slightly open on the left side, and gets excellent extension on balls on the outer-half but is still able to stay compact on the outer part of the plate. Hands set by ear flap, utilizes leg lift timing mechanism. The swing from both sides can best be described as "handsy" as he does not do a great job of generating power from his lower half. This is offset by his ability to sync up and stay balanced to the ball with a heavily angular swing. This allows him to cut down on the swing and miss versus righthanders and generate hard airborne contact with regularity. As a right handed hitter Waters profile is reversed despite a similar setup. It's a contact over power profile, but he still manages to make inconsistent contact versus lefthanders. He's susceptible to whiffing on breaking balls and offspeed in general. However, it's accentuated from the right side where he can best be described as relentlessly pestered. It's a plus hit tool from the left side, but a poor profile from the right. The fact that he's strong side platoon heavy softens the blow to his overall hit grade. Grade: 50
Power: Without getting further in the weeds comparing and contrasting Waters' righty and lefty swings suffice it to say the power plays similarly to his contact. Of his 113 extra base hits since the start of 2018, only 21 are against left handed pitching. The good news there is Waters has averaged 56-57 extra base hits a season. They've mostly come in the form of doubles and triples, but it's reasonable to anticipate some of those turn to home runs as he ages. His elite bat speed and god given hands, allow him to hit for above average power in game despite his lack of leverage in his swing. Excellent extension at the point of contact and an uncanny ability to drive the ball versus right handed pitching. Analytically his 2019 metrics back up an above average grade with his max exit velocity topping 112 mph and an average EV of 89.5 mph. As Waters adds strength and his approach matures he should provide split heavy power production annually. Grade: 55
Field: Has seen time at all three outfield positions. Has the plus makeup speed needed for centerfield but not the natural instincts. In another organization that doesn't have Cristian Pache, Waters likely sees all of his time in center. He played predominantly left field in 2019, but looks capable of handling right. His arm plays in either spot but it's just league average defense, which is valuable with an above average offensive profile like Waters. Grade: 50
Arm: Clocked at 95 mph from the outfield prior to his draft year and Waters has not lost any strength in his arm since. Less accurate than the double plus arms we'll grade this year, but his arm strength and quick trigger allow it to play as plus. More than enough arm for any position in the outfield. Grade: 60
Run: A plus runner who's speed plays in game, as mentioned in his fielding tool description Waters speed allows his inconsistent reads to go somewhat shielded due to his makeup speed. It's the same at the plate and in the bases. He consistently clocks plus home to first from each side of the plate, and steals bases at a high rate (78% success since 2018). Plus speed that plays in all facets of Waters game. Grade: 60
Overall: Waters destroys right handed pitching to the point he's an easy 60 hit/power from that side long term. For example at his two longest tenured stops in pro-ball (2018 A & 2019 double-A), Waters slashed .325/.381/.578 against righthanders in 2018 with Rome, and followed it up by slashing .334/.384/.512 with Mississippi in 2019. I have every confidence that Waters could come up to the bigs and be productive against right handed pitching while providing value in the field and on the bases. This is enough to carve him out a starting role, but there's still some chance a team limits his exposure versus left handed pitching. Likely enough value across the board for Waters to have some all-star level seasons, especially if he can raise his hitting versus left handed pitching to a below average (40) level.
OFP: 55
Role: 60 - Above-Average Regular - Occasional All-Star
Risk: Moderate
