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Major League Value - National League Edition

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Major League Value - National League Edition

In our first edition, we recapped value picks from the American League. We now turn our attention towards the senior circuit, where in a similar fashion, we will be highlighting one draft prospect who was selected past the fourth round who we believe has the chance to return major league.

MLB Draft League Preview

Last year Major League Baseball began a significant overhaul of the MLB draft. MLB’s plan to “celebrate baseball” during the mid-summer classic by pushing back the date of the draft was a welcome addition to many, as was the creation of a comprehensive and fully televised draft combine. The league also took steps to centralize and control a more significant share of the draft process by introducing the draft combine, as mentioned earlier, and forming an ambitious summer baseball league for draft-eligible players. Major League Baseball partnered with Prep Baseball Report to produce a six-team league dubbed the MLB Draft League. The six teams are fashioned from former minor league affiliates with rosters filled by a mix of college, high school, and junior college players. Opening day for the Draft League is June 2nd, with the season concluding in early September. MLB streams each game for free on the MLB Draft League website.

While the league lacked “star power” and participation from early-round talents, the MLB Draft League (MLBDL) successfully identified and attracted draft grade talent for its inaugural season. 39 MLBDL players were drafted in 2022 (another 23 players signed as undrafted free agents) with selections as early as the 4th and 5th rounds. Many unknown and lightly scouted players received an opportunity to compete against higher-level competition. Teams were able to see players up close and in a controlled environment while also getting their hands on recent and accurate player data. Year two of the Draft League will look to build on that success and further cement the league as a quality option for draft-eligible players. The initial rosters look more robust than those from last year. Still, they lack early-round talent. Draft League rosters will feature a heavy dose of junior college talent, with many of the top juco prospects in the country set to compete this summer. There seems to be a more extensive division one college presence this year, with players coming over from schools like Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Oklahoma, to name a few. Let’s look at some of the top talents for each team, many of whom could significantly boost their draft stock with a strong performance. 

Frederick was most recently affiliated with the Baltimore Orioles. Now part of the MLBDL, the Keys saw seven former players selected during last year’s draft. Alex Ulloa was their highest draft pick (Astros, 4th rd; did not sign), while other notables include Mason Auer (Rays, 5th rd) and Ronan Kopp (Dodgers, 12th rd).


Kendal Ewell

Position: Outfield

School: Eastern Kentucky


Ewell is a semifinalist for the Golden Spikes Award after a monster season for the Colonels. His 2022 season includes a .361/.482/.607 batting line, with double-digit homers (14) and stolen bases (11). Ewell is a plus athlete with significant raw power and better-than-average speed. This spring, Ewell has spent most of his time in left field but could get some looks in center for the Keys this summer. The big knock on Ewell is his penchant for empty swings. His K rate is around 27%, which is too high at the college level, especially for a hitter in a non-power conference. Ewell will have a good opportunity in the MLBDL to show that he can cut down on the whiffs against quality stuff. If he performs and can deliver some flashes defensively in center, Ewell could hear his name called on day two of the draft. 

Jorel Ortega

Position: Second Base 

School: Tennessee


Last summer, Ortega played briefly for the Keys and had an impressive campaign (52 PA; .326/.442/.791). He carried that over to the spring, where he’s been one of the bigger surprises for a star-studded Tennessee squad. Ortega missed all of 2020 and played sparingly during 2021, but he made the most of his early opportunities this season and has carved out an everyday role as the Vol’s starting second baseman. Ortega has significant compact strength, allowing him to slug fifteen long balls this spring. His OPS is currently north of 1.000, and over half of his hits have gone for extra bases. Most of his tools grade out around average, but the season-long success in the SEC is undoubtedly working in Ortega’s favor. Ortega is one of the top college bats in the MLBDL this year, so you can expect his summer performance to be put under a microscope by pro teams. Ortega could play his way into a day two selection.  

Geo Rivera

Position: Right-Handed Pitcher 

School: Walters State CC/Oregon


During his two seasons at Old Dominion, Rivera received little mound time, which prompted a move to juco powerhouse Walters State. Rivera’s stuff has been loud this spring, with a lively fastball up to 97 MPH and a power-breaking ball in the mid-80s. Rivera has split time between starting, relieving, and closing for Walters State this spring, averaging two to three innings per appearance, and has been dominant in each role. His season ERA is a minuscule 1.03, and he’s struck out over 70 batters in 52.1 innings while only walking 13. This past February, Rivera was at his best when he held his stuff during a seven-inning no-hitter that included sixteen strikeouts. Rivera has a large and mature build that casts an intimidating presence on the mound. Even though he’s done well as a starter at times, he profiles as a power-armed reliever as a pro. He’s committed to Oregon for the 2023 season, but a strong summer could be enough for a pro team to take a chance on Rivera in the draft.

Nathan Williams

Position: Right-Handed Pitcher

School: Florence-Darlington Tech/Mississippi State

The Mississippi State commit has starter traits and ideal size at 6’4 and 230 lbs. Williams came into the spring ranked as the #19 juco prospect in the nation by Perfect Game. Williams has a fastball that can be explosive at times, touching 96 MPH and sitting comfortably in the 91-94 MPH range. Both of his secondaries are quality pitches, with his curveball flashing above average potential or better. His delivery features a sizable hip turn that adds a layer of deception and a slightly lower than average release height from a high ¾ arm slot. Williams struggled to limit free passes this spring, but his athleticism and repeatable delivery give him an encouraging chance to improve in that area. If Williams can throw quality strikes and hold his stuff this summer, we could see a team pry him away from Mississippi State.

Keep an eye on:

Situated in northeast Ohio, the Scrappers were a short-season team for the Cleveland Guardians from 1999 to 2020. Six Scrappers were drafted in 2021, with another four signed as undrafted free agents. Righty Andrew Hoffman pitched for the Scrappers last summer and is looking like a nice find for the Braves as a 12th round pick.

Kohl Drake

Position: Left-Handed Pitcher 

School: Walters State CC


Walters State has been the top junior college team in the country thanks to their pitching staff and an incredible season from their lefty ace Kohl Drake. Drake has made sixteen starts for the Senators, compiling a team-high 89.2 innings and five complete games. This spring, Drake has allowed only 54 hits and 16 walks with an unbelievable 156 strikeouts, good for a 9.75 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s not overpowering, but Drake’s stuff has ticked up just enough to profile at the next level. Drake will sit around 90-91 MPH with his fastball and can bump things up to 92-93 MPH when needed. The fastball has excellent hop, giving it swing-and-miss potential even without solid-average present velocity. He has advanced command of the fastball and can spot it to both sides of the plate. Drake also has a couple of breaking balls that can flash average. The changeup is Drake’s most consistent secondary pitch and projects to be better than average as a pro. Drake is uncommitted and has already spent four years at the juco level. He’s close to 22 years old, which may damper his draft stock, but he’s likely to be selected sometime during day three of the draft. If Drake’s fastball velocity takes another jump this summer, he could make a late rise up draft boards. 

Cole Paplham

Position: Right-Handed Pitcher

School: New Orleans


Paplham came out this spring throwing absolute GAS! At times, the JUCO transfer was flirting with triple digits, showing fastball velocity in the 97-99 MPH range. Paplham compliments his overpowering heater with a slider that can play to an above-average level at its best. It’s colossal arm talent for Paplham, who is currently #348 on the Prospects Live draft board, and profiles as a two-pitch reliever. Paplham has struggled to remain healthy this spring with multiple lengthy absences during his first year at New Orleans. His command is well below average, but the stuff is so impressive that he could probably make his stuff work with only marginal strike-throwing improvements. If Paplham flashes his power stuff and remains healthy, you can bet on several pro teams being interested in scooping him up during the draft.

Mathew Peters

Position: Right-Handed Pitcher

School: Ivy Tech CC/Miami (OH)


The Scrappers will have two absolute flamethrowers on their pitching staff between Cole Paplham and Mathew Peters. This spring, Peters came out of nowhere with premium velocity at little-known Ivy Tech CC. The body and frame are a plus for Peters as he’s both strong and projectable. Peters has been up to 100 MPH with his ferocious fastball, and he’ll sit in the 93-96 MPH range during starts. The mechanics and effort level in the delivery limit Peters to the bullpen, but there’s late inning potential with further development as a pitcher. Peters has a feel for spinning a slider, but it's inconsistent, and it will need to be refined and shaped in the pros. Like with Paplham, teams will line up to get Peters into their organization if the stuff shows up on the mound for the Scrappers. 

Keep an eye on:

The State College Spikes were a short-season league affiliate of the Cardinals from 2013 to 2020. Four members of the 2021 State College Spikes heard their names called during the draft, with 14th rounder Andrew Moore looking like a day three steal for the Mariners.

Brock Blatter

Position: Right-Handed Pitcher

School: Billings Central Catholic (MT)/Alabama

There’s an air of mystery surrounding Brock Blatter. That tends to happen when you are a high school prospect from Montana. Blatter is a two-sport athlete (he also plays basketball) that is committed to Alabama for 2023 and beyond. We don’t have much information to go off because of how difficult it can be for evaluators to get out and see Blatter. The MLBDL is the perfect environment for someone like Blatter to gain late exposure and show the baseball world what he’s got. Blatter’s been up to 95 MPH, has a solid and physical build and has the makings of a starter’s arsenal. Slotting in at #402 on our draft board, Blatter is undoubtedly on our radar, and his performance this summer could vault him up the ranks in short order.

Josh Mollerus

Position: Right-Handed Pitcher

School: San Francisco


Last summer, something clicked for Mollerus when he pitched for the Portland Pickles of the West Coast League. He never had much success as a Don but then tossed 23 innings of 0.39 ERA ball. Mollerus had his best season for San Francisco in 2022, finishing with a 3.96 in 36.1 innings, with a sparkling 52:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. I took note of Mollerus in mid-March thanks to his looseness on the mound, quick arm, and the flat plane he gets on his fastball. Mollerus sits 91-95 MPH with the heater, and it plays exceptionally well at the top of the zone, with hitters constantly swinging underneath the pitch. Mollerus also mixes in a solid slider that can play up when he tunnels it effectively off the fastball. Mollerus is a reliever at the next level but could handle multi-inning stints in the pros. Like we saw with many relief arms in last year’s draft league action, Mollerus could garner pro interest after teams get their mitts on his pitch data. 

Will Stevens

Position: Right-Handed Pitcher

School: Wichita State

Stevens was a member of the Frederick Keys last summer, and while he took his lumps (12.46 ERA) during his time there, he also flashed phenomenal arm talent. Stevens was third in max fastball velocity (98.1 MPH) with high spin rates and riding life on his heater. He’ll also show good spin and shape on his slider, but he struggles commanding it. Stevens transferred to Wichita State for the 2022 season and continued to have issues throwing strikes. He’ll need to improve his strike-throwing to hear his name called this July, but Stevens has obvious upside.

Keep an eye on:

The Trenton Thunder were part of the Yankees organization for more than fifteen years at the AA level. Trenton went 30-18 last year and narrowly claimed the Draft League crown. Seven Thunder players were drafted in 2021, with Canadian native Garrett Hawkins performing well for the Padres as a 9th-round selection.

Colby Backus

Position: Outfield

School: Walters State

Colby Backus might be the best junior college hitter in the nation, not named Cam Collier. The 6-foot-5, 220 lb corner outfielder is batting over .400 on the spring with nineteen homers and an OPS straddling the 1.100-1.200 line. As you’d expect, Backus has elite physicality with the strength and bat speed to put a charge into the ball on contact. I like the way the hands work in the swing, which allows him to cover the inner and outer portions of the plate. There’s a good amount of swing and miss, and he struck out over 40 times (~19%) this spring which is high for a junior college prospect, so we’ll have to see how he fares day-to-day against the league’s top arms. Backus isn’t just a power goon; he shows off a solid run and arm tool, which gives him some five-tool potential at the next level. Backus is committed to Tennessee, which could make him tough to sign. Teams are typically hesitant to go all in on junior college hitters, but a strong summer could provide teams with enough confidence to take a chance on Backus, possibly in the first half of day two (rounds 4-6). 

John Biagio-Modugno

Position: Right-Handed Pitcher

School: Indiana

I wrote about Biagio-Modugno earlier this spring after seeing him pitch against Rutgers. There are a lot of attractive elements to Biagio-Modugno’s game, but he had trouble putting everything together for Indiana. His 10.00 ERA is not indicative of the talent that Biagio-Modugno possesses. The frame is eminently projectable, and his fastball-slider combo could take off in a bullpen role. Biagio-Modugno will get a final shot before the draft to work on some things and get his game back on track. 

Nate Ochoa

Position: Shortstop/Third Base

School: Notre Dame Catholic (ON)/ Alabama

Ochoa is the top hitter coming out of Canada in the 2022 high school class. He’s gotten bigger, stronger, and faster over the past year and looks the part of a professional prospect. Ochoa has above average raw power and speed with the actions and arm necessary to stay on the left side of the infield. He had a solid performance at WWBA in October and followed that up with a quality showing at PBR’s Super 60 showcase. There’s impact potential with the bat, which means Ochoa has a chance to boost his stock if he can hit against much older and mature arms during the Draft League.

Blake Robertson

Position: First Base

School: Oklahoma

In our latest update, Blake Robertson got his name on our 2022 draft board, ranking #351 overall for us. He’s bounced around since high school with stays at Oklahoma State and Cowley CC before arriving at Oklahoma. An unsigned Twins draft pick in 2019, Robertson has a unique stat line for a first baseman with not much in-game power (4 HR in 273 PA) but a boatload of walks. Robertson is second in the nation with 61 walks, and his .483 OBP ranks second in the BIG 12. Roberts has plenty of size and strength at 6-5 and 200 lbs but hasn’t been able to lift the ball for over-the-fence power. A lot of his pull-side contact is of the line drive variety, and he also likes to let balls travel deep and work the opposite field. His future defensive home isn’t set in stone since Robertson moves pretty well for his size. Robertson might get some reps in the outfield (he also has experience at third base), and if he can handle that defensive transition, it would be a major boon for his draft value. We could see Robertson get popped on day two of the draft with some added power or a change in his defensive outlook with the Thunder.

Keep an eye on:

West Virginia finished a game behind Trenton during last year’s inaugural season. The former Pittsburgh Pirates affiliate saw seven Black Bears get taken in the draft. Lefty Mitch Bratt was a 5th-round pick by the Rangers and received a whopping $850,000 signing bonus. Last year, Kobe Robinson, Tucker Mitchell, and Madison Jeffrey were other notable selections.

Josh Day

Position: Shortstop

School: Missouri


Josh Day was a highly regarded juco transfer that immediately stepped into the starting shortstop role for Missouri last season. Last spring, he dealt with a hand injury that may be partially to blame for his lackluster batting line(.250/.374/.316)  in 2021. His second go of it with the Tigers has been much more fruitful as Day's OPS has jumped 254 points (.689 to .943) while playing a solid shortstop. Day doesn’t possess a true plus tool, but he’s a middle infielder with good twitchy athleticism and some punch at the dish. Day also has more strength than bat speed, making it hard for him to perform against premium velocity. There are some questions about whether Day plays shortstop or not at the pro level, and he might be a better fit at second or in a utility-type role. Day will look to continue his positive momentum in the Draft League and answer some of those questions for the Black Bears.

Cedric De Grandpre

Position: Right-Handed Pitcher

School: Chipola College / Arizona State

De Grandpre established himself as an ace pitcher for Chipola College, one of the best juco programs, yearly. De Grandpre made his way down to Chipola by way of Quebec and is committed to pitch at Arizona State in 2023. De Grandpre’s best trait might be his dependability and consistency. He’s 90-94 MPH in every outing with two quality secondary pitches and advanced command. De Grandpre is your classic sinker-slider righty who thrives on his ability to alter speeds and change eye levels to keep hitters off balance. He currently lacks a pitch that projects to miss bats in the pros; however, De Grandpre is lean and athletic, so physical growth could be on the horizon. De Grandpre projects well as a starter at either the D1 or professional level, and it will be interesting to see if there’s an uptick in his stuff during shorter appearances in the Draft League. He might be tough to sign away from his ASU commitment, but the starter traits and present stuff will entice scouts this summer.

Ryan McCoy

Position: First Base

School: Wabash Valley/Louisville


McCoy returns to the Black Bears after a highly promising summer (.892 OPS) in 2021, and he earned himself a reputation as one of the most patient hitters on the circuit. McCoy walked 41 times in 172 plate appearances, and his chase rate of 13.8% was third best in the league. McCoy didn’t show much power last summer as he was limited to three homers resulting in an isolated power of only .183. There were some signs that perhaps more power was in store for McCoy. He made plenty of hard contact with a max exit velocity of 109 MPH, and the top 10% of his batted balls traveled 104.5 MPH off the bat, the fifth highest in the league. McCoy returned to Wabash Valley for a second season and increased his home run total from thirteen as a freshman to sixteen as a sophomore. McCoy’s size (6’4/220), strength, and bat speed give him a chance to hit for power at the next level, something he will absolutely need to do as a first base only prospect. His swing is low maintenance and geared for line drive contact making it hard to project more in-game power without a swing or approach change. McCoy has a good shot at regular playing for Louisville next year, making his signability a question mark. Look for McCoy to have his power stroke on display this time through the Draft League. 

Keep an eye on:

The Crosscutters were short-season affiliates for the Pirates (1999-2006) and, most recently, the Phillies (2007-2020). The team led the way, with eight players selected in the 2021 draft. UC Irvine righty Troy Taylor (now with the Spikes) was named MLBDL pitcher of the year, though the most memorable player from last year was probably Eduardo Rivera (Athletics, 11th round).

Terry Busse

Position: Right-Handed Pitcher

School: John A Logan College

Busse has thrived in a late-inning relief role at John A. Logan College this spring, showing power stuff that profiles well at the pro level. He’s consistently in the 93-96 MPH range with a tailing fastball that flashes some ride, and there’s some feel for commanding the pitch effectively in the zone. Busse pairs the fastball with a slider that features heavy downer movement in the low 80s. He’s toyed with a split-change that could be an effective weapon against lefties, but he might not need it if he sticks in the bullpen. Busse has the build and delivery to give starting a try, so don’t be surprised to see a couple of lengthy appearances for Busse this summer. He’s young for the class (20.08 years old on draft day) and is currently uncommitted for next year, making him a premium target for professional clubs. 

Andrew Walling

Position: Left-Handed Pitcher

School: Mississippi State

Walling was expected to significantly contribute to Mississippi State’s pitching staff as a junior college transfer from Eastern Oklahoma State. Surprisingly, he took the mound just three times, with one appearance in February, one in April, and one in May. He walked seven batters in three innings, and his inability to find the strike zone likely contributed to his limited usage. Walling has always had some control and command concerns, but premium stuff from the left side came with that. He touched 100 MPH last spring and sat in the mid-90s during starts. Both his slider and changeup flashed swing-and-miss potential giving Walling three pitches that he could use to rack up whiffs. Walling has since entered the transfer portal, which means he’ll be looking to either catch on with a pro team or find a new home at the college level. We haven’t seen Walling pitch regularly in almost a year, so it’s hard to predict how he’ll look. If he can pitch to the high level we saw in 2021, teams and schools will be lining up to get him into their organization. There are some profile similarities between Walling and Ronan Kopp, who was a huge breakout performer in the Draft League last year. Kopp went on to sign with the Dodgers as a 12th round pick. 

Beck Milner

Position: Catcher

School: Taft School (CT)/Yale

This past summer, Milner made his presence known during showcase season with eye-popping measurables and in-game production to go with it. Originally from Utah, Milner moved to Connecticut and is committed to playing ball at nearby Yale University. That muddies his signability, as we rarely see high schoolers turn pro with an Ivy League commitment in hand. Milner showed off his physicality, athleticism, and batting chops for an extended period on the showcase circuit. If he’s able to hit at a high level against the quality arms that he’ll see in the Draft League, it could reignite and solidify interest from pro teams. Milner is a catcher by trade and has also stepped on the bump at times this spring, showing off a fastball that can get into the low 90s. Scouts considered his defense to be raw behind the dish during the summer, but the arm was a legitimate tool, and his athletic actions in the crouch gave plenty of hope that he could stick there long term. At one point, we had Milner in the top 200 on our draft board, and he’s still ranked reasonably high for a high school catcher at #350 overall. Milner will be heavily scouted this summer and has the chance to move back up into that top 200 range with a strong showing.

Keep an eye on: