Written by: Brandon Smith and Jackson Thomas
In our first edition, we recapped value picks from the American League. We now turn our attention towards the senior circuit, where in a similar fashion, we will be highlighting one draft prospect who was selected past the fourth round who we believe has the chance to return major league value at a minimal marginal cost.
National League East
Atlanta Braves
RHP Ian Mejia (11th Round, $100,000)
Prospects Live was the only publication to publish a live look on Mejia this year and we came away impressed with his raw pitching characteristics. Mejia has an athletic delivery that is smooth in nature and elevated with a loose whippy arm action with good arm speed. It's apparent when watching Mejia that he has a great feel to spin a curveball, backed by high spin rates and a loud movement profile. The fastball has touched 97 and lives a high riding life with arm side run. Atlanta tends to do well with developing athletic molded pitchers and Mejia holds great traits to be a dynamic bullpen weapon, and maybe even start with another pitch.
Miami Marlins
LHP Dale Stanavich (8th Round, $47,500)
The Marlins have quietly become one of the more plentiful organizations when it comes to developing young pitching. Look no further than the big league clubs starting rotation that ranks 8th in the majors in ERA with an average age of 26-years old. Stanavich was a standout fireman out of the bullpen this spring for Rutgers. He’s a two pitch guy that causes fits for opposing hitters. It’s a low 3/4 release with a rising mid 90’s fastball. He throws a top to bottom slider that drops late, more of in the gyro slider family. Stanavich is a strike thrower who generates plenty of whiffs in the zone with both of his pitches. He has the tools and competitive edge to be a quality reliever for years to come in Miami.
New York Mets
RHP Jonah Tong (7th Round, $226,000)
A Canadian prep righty who dazzled evaluators with his analytical data in the Draft League. Tong is a super projectable righty, with a lean athletic build. His high spin fastball was up to 96 this summer, and sat 93-94 with plus induced vertical break outputs. Complementing his riding heater is a sharp overhand 12-6 curveball that has plus depth and pushes close to 3,000 RPM’s. The Mets have had recent success with Canadian prep pitchers, (look no further than Calvin Ziegler) and the sky's the limit for Tong, as he has the traits to develop into a quality starting pitching prospect.
Philadelphia Phillies JT
C Caleb Ricketts (7th Round, $218,000)
Someone who has been on the radar of area scouts for a long while, Ricketts finally broke through to his true skill set in 2022 showcasing more power with a swing adjustment. A large lean bodied bat first catcher always bodes well for potential sleeper and player development programs. Ricketts presents great bat to ball skills posting a 84% contact rate overall, and 80% on breaking balls. In all likelihood he might move off the dish but I’m buying into his hitting data and swing adjustment as his carrying tool to a potential bench contributor.
Washington Nationals
3B Murphy Stehly (10th Round, $10,000)
Stehly’s barrel covers all quadrants of the zone and does an exceptional job handling all types of pitches thrown his way (He ranked fifth in the nation in hits with 102). His carrying tool is his plus raw power that translates in game. His swing is designed to launch the ball and his bat speed allows him to do damage consistently. There is some swing and miss in his game, but he makes up for it by taking his walks and posting an 82% contact rate. As a senior sign, Stehly is almost 24 years old and his experience with the Longhorns should bode well for him as a professional.
National League Central
Chicago Cubs:
LHP Branden Noriega (11th Round, $125,000)
Noriega is one of the more extravagant pure upside picks in the draft. He has a live arm with a fastball that has been up to 98 in the Draft League. He possesses a super lean, wiry athletic build that has plenty of room for physical projection. There is work to be done in regards to polishing up his mechanics. As a result, this could improve his kinematic chain which would unlock more velocity, as well as developing a more consistent breaking ball. All in all, Noriega oozes with upside as he has all the tools to become a quality day three selection for the Cubs.
Cincinnati Reds:
RHP Trey Braithwaite (16th Round, $100,000)
Braithwaite has the chance to be fast tracked to the major leagues as a reliever. Despite being 24 years of age and a 5th year senior, he is a low mileage college arm due to his time spent at Navy. He has a loud pitch mix, headlined by a double plus fastball that sits 96-99 MPH with plus life up in the zone. His slider needs a little polish, but has the potential to develop into a plus secondary offering.
Milwaukee Brewers:
C/1B Tayden Hall (9th Round, $157,000)
Tayden, the son of former nine-year major league veteran Toby Hall, was one of the youngest performers in the Draft League this summer. He demonstrates above average contact skills paired with plus raw power. His power frequency translates in game with the ability to utilize that power to all fields. Tayden has one of the more distinct eyes you will find in a 19-year old prospect. He models a strong understanding of the strike zone, with minimal chase in his game. Hall profiles more as a first baseman long term, but the bat to ball and power ability has the potential to transform into a carrying tool at the next level.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
Mike Walsh (9th Round, $147,500)
For years the saying “establish your fastball” dominated pitching development. The tide has since turned and pitchers are throwing their breaking balls more than their fastball, and Mike Walsh is no exception. Walsh threw his slider more than 50% of the time, and for good reason, as the case can be made that he has the best slider in the class. The slider averaged nearly 20” of glove side movement with a spin rate well over 2700 RPMS, making it one of the more wicked slider movement profiles in the class. He couples his sweeping slider with a low release, high spin heater that sits in the low-90’s. He has a leaner body that still has room for projection, which may suggest that there is more natural fastball velocity projection in the tank as he continues to mature. Walsh’s profile screams back end reliever and if he is able to add more velocity he has the potential to be a lethal late game strikeout weapon.
St. Louis Cardinals:
LHP Jack Lynch (18th Round, $125,000)
Checking in at 5’10, Lynch is one of the more deceptive southpaws selected in the draft. His mechanics resemble current Giant Alex Wood. Similar to Wood, he brings a bulldog mentality to the hill. His two-seam fastball plays effectively up in the zone, due in large part to his flat vertical approach angle and his ability to lift the ball from his low release height. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and is a legit weapon, as he posted a 40% whiff rate on heaters elevated up in the zone. His breaking ball is more of a hybrid slider, as he is able to manipulate the shape of the pitch to look more like a cutter, or rip down on the ball for additional sweep. Lynch is an interesting spectacle, as his deceptive delivery and pitch mix would fit well in a major league bullpen.
National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks
C Gavin Logan (10th Round, $75,000)
Catching depth is always sought after in the draft and Logan checks all the boxes an organization desires. Behind the dish, he is a solid defender as he demonstrates above average receiving skills, as he does an exceptional job of stealing strikes around the edges with his subtle glove movements. He keeps the run game in check with his accurate throwing arm as well. In the batters box, Logan shows plus bat to ball skills (88% contact%) and carries a distinct eye to the plate as he drew more walks than strikeouts this past season. All in all, Logan has all the intangibles to bring value as a backup catcher at the major league level.
Colorado Rockies JT
LHP Carson Skipper (11th Round, $100,000)
Carson Skipper fits the profile to a T for a later round bullpen piece flyer. He has enough innate traits that make him interesting to succeed where he doesn’t need to rely on the Rockies lack of pitching development. Long-limbed and armed with funk and a high release, Skipper generates a high rising fastball with good extension that can play in the altitude. What really carries his reliever profile is his feel for two different breaking balls. His slider generated a 50% whiff rate in 2022 with a 31% in-zone whiff rate! Skipper’s curveball also found success with a 31% whiff rate. He is a senior sign so upside is limited, but you’re buying into his funk and feel to spin and get whiffs with three different pitches.
Los Angeles Dodgers:
Taylor Young (8th Round, $2,500)
Overall, the Dodgers did a great job acquiring additional depth to add to an already deep farm system over the course of the three days. I went back and forth between Jacob Meador and Taylor Young, but ultimately settled on Young, since he fits the bill of a player who could provide immense value at $2,500. Young brings everything to the table that an organization would want to see in a hitter. He has plus contact skills backed with quality batted ball data and a selective eye at the dish (47 BB to 40 K). He uses an all-fields approach in the box, with a short compact swing that generates in-game power production. Defensively, he is limited to second base, but the Dodgers have not shied away from acquiring this type of profile in the past. Young’s signing bonus is the smallest amongst players outlined above, but we feel comfortable projecting on his offensive profile, especially when considering the success the Dodgers have had at developing under valued hitters.
San Diego Padres
RHP Braden Nett (UDFA)
From a developmental standpoint, Nett has extreme upside, as the former basketball player had only a handful of amatuer innings prior to the summer. Still just 19 years old, there is plenty of physical projection remaining in the tank. The fastall has been up to 98, but consistently sits in the 92-96 range. There is work to be done in order to repeat his mechanics and execute pitches consistently. However, it is hard to ignore the pure arm strength and ability to consistently spin a breaking ball over 3,000 RPM’s. If Nett is able to put it all together, the undrafted free agent has the chance to return tremendous surplus value as his traits mimic a future major league reliever.
San Francisco Giants:
RHP Tyler Vogel (12th Round, $125,000)
The Giants have greatly strengthened their pitching development since Farhan Zaidi came over from the Dodgers. Vogel came to the Cape Cod League and shoved garnering more attention. He showcases dynamic pitch data with various high movement profiles ranging from a rising fastball, 11/5 curve, and a true sweeping slider. Between the raw arsenal characteristics, an athletic and quick armed delivery, and the Giants magic, we could be looking at a future Giant bullpen fixture down the road.