About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Andrew Painter, RHP - 60 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 3 OFP: 50
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 55 | 60 | 55 | 60 | Moderate |
| 94-99 mph | 78-82 mph | 82-87 mph | 86-91 mph |
PHYSICAL Painter is a massive human being. He’s long and lean with projection remaining throughout his body, and he’s already added substantial muscle since signing with the Phillies. For a pitcher his size, he has excellent body control and repeats his mechanics well. It’s an easy operation on the mound from the third base side of the rubber, throwing from a high three-quarters arm slot and pitching downhill well. He’s very mature for his age.
STRENGTHS Painter’s pitch mix is one of the best, if not the best, in the minor leagues. The fastball has tickled 100 MPH on a couple of occasions, routinely sitting in the 94-99 MPH range with serious ride and life in the zone. He’s able to hold that velocity throughout his starts. The slider is the best secondary in his arsenal, sitting more in the mid-80s while averaging nearly a foot of sweep and consistently being landed for strikes. The curveball is more of a 12/6 shape in the high-70s to low-80s with solid break and bite when he’s on. It’s mainly used to steal strikes. Finally, the changeup got better as last year progressed, with him becoming more confident in the pitch late in the season. It’s a high-80s pitch that touches 91 MPH with serious dive and garners quite a bit of swing and miss down in the zone. The pitch could be plus later on. He has excellent command of his entire arsenal, too, and especially his fastball.
WEAKNESSES The curveball and slider shapes can blend together at times, although that got better as the season went on. He can live too much in the zone, as well, leading to quite a bit of contact. There are also times where his command becomes more scattered, missing around the zone.
SUMMARY It’s not often that a 19-year-old pitches in Double-A, and what Painter did in 2022 is nothing short of extraordinary. Finishing off one of the best seasons in recent memory, he has ace potential and could even find himself in Philadelphia as early as late 2023 and more reasonably some time in 2024. Painter is the best minor league pitcher in the game and will return to Double-A to start the season. ticks.
EVALUATOR Tyler Jennings
2. Mick Abel, RHP - 55 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 1 OFP: 60
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 55 | 60 | 55 | 60 | Moderate |
| 94-97 mph | 77-82 mph | 84-88 mph | 86-90 mph |
PHYSICAL Abel is tall with a big league frame and room to grow. He could easily add weight while maintaining his present athleticism. He has long limbs and moves well around the mound. His arm action looks similar to a golf swing with lots of movement, including bringing his arm far back before whipping it home with a lot of torque to the plate.
STRENGTHS Everything in Abel’s repertoire is a legitimate big league pitch. The fastball is his best pitch, sitting in the mid-to-upper 90s and touching 99 MPH, with good life and armside run. His slider and changeup both project as plus pitches. His slider has big break and bite across the plate, constantly leaving hitters flailing when it’s located. The changeup is firm and tumbles out of the zone away from left-handed hitters. The pitch’s velocity separation off the fastball is also solid, which helps the pitch play well when properly sequenced. Abel also incorporates an upper-70s to low-80s curveball that projects as average at the big league level. He’s unafraid to work all of his pitches into his mix.
WEAKNESSES While Abel has shown an ability to work deep into games, he’s not always efficient and can run into high pitch counts. He has issues finding the strike zone in a consistent manner, but he’s been largely able to skirt the impact of that due to his overwhelming stuff. He will struggle some once he faces more patient hitters. His long arm action creates inconsistent arm slots and release windows, which contributes to his fringe-average command. His fastball specifically misses high or inside with semi-regularity.
SUMMARY Abel has big, nasty stuff, including three pitches that project as plus or better. That gives him top of the rotation upside, although he’ll need to refine his control and command to get there. He started working deeper into games in 2022, which is a big positive, and his next step will be working to improve his command.
EVALUATOR Chris O’Day
3. Justin Crawford, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 25
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 40 | 55 | 50 | 70 | High |
PHYSICAL The son of former big leaguer Carl Crawford, Justin possesses similar traits to his dad and was one of the most athletic prospects in the 2022 class. There’s plenty of projection to his skinny, wiry frame. He uses a crouched stance at the plate with a subtle toe tap and weight shift into his back leg.
STRENGTHS Crawford stands out for his game changing speed. He was one of the fastest, if not the fastest, prospect in the entire 2022 draft class with double-plus speed generated by his lengthy stride. It’s a presently hit-over-power profile with his barrel staying in the zone for a long time, and he shows a feel for utilizing the whole field to his advantage. There is some pull-side power, and there’s certainly more to unlock there. In the field, he’s a bonafide center fielder with great instincts, solid routes, and the aforementioned speed that give him plus range. It’s an average throwing arm, but he’s able to cover plenty of ground to make up for it.
WEAKNESSES Crawford sacrifices some of his power to slap the ball around the field and scouts would like to see a more authoritative hit tool moving forward. Most of his power is to his pull side, and it’s currently below-average, although that can be changed with swing tweaks. He struggles to get good leverage in his swing at times, and that showed up in his professional debut where he hit quite a few balls on the ground.
SUMMARY There’s plenty to dream on with Crawford in terms of his projection and athleticism, and he’s just scratching the surface. The power should come with time and added strength, but the 19-year-old projects as a contact-oriented player who stays up the middle and plays above-average defense in center field. He should start the season in Single-A to begin the year.
EVALUATOR Tyler Jennings
4. Griff McGarry, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 10 OFP: 50
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 30 | High |
| 94-97 mph | 77-82 mph | 84-88 mph | 86-90 mph |
PHYSICAL McGarry has an ideal pitcher’s build with good height and a solid frame. He’s a quality athlete who does a good job of repeating his relatively high three-quarters arm slot.
STRENGTHS The 23-year-old has four legitimate pitches that he uses to attack batters. The fastball has plus velocity, working in the mid-to-upper-90s and touching 99 MPH, and is regularly worked up in the zone. It is a legit swing-and-miss offering that he can use in any count. The slider and curveball are both good pitches with distinct shapes. The curveball is close to a standard 12/6 shape, while the slider is more sweepy. Both pitches project as plus, particularly if he can better command them. His fourth pitch is an average changeup that shows good armside fade. It’s less consistent than his other offspeed pitches, but it does show good velocity separation off his mid-90s heater.
WEAKNESSES McGarry’s command is well-below-average, and that forces all of his pitches to play down below their raw grades. He has consistently run both high pitch totals and walk rates, which creates obvious relief risk. If he does remain a starter, he’s unlikely to work deep into games.
SUMMARY The stuff is undeniably great, but his command limits him. There are few, if any, starting pitchers who operate with well-below-average command, and it’s unlikely that McGarry will break that mold. The former fifth rounder looked like a reliever in college, and he’s once again looking like one as a professional. He has legitimate strikeout potential, but his future bullpen role largely hinges on his ability to throw strikes. He should report back to Triple-A, where he worked in the bullpen towards the end of last season.
EVALUATOR Rhys White
5. Johan Rojas, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 4 OFP: 45
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 45 | 60 | 55 | 70 | High |
PHYSICAL Rojas has a medium frame with a slight build and plenty of room left for added strength. He’s an explosive, quick-twitch athlete with long limbs. He incorporates some pre-swing wiggle but settles in with a medium leg kick as the pitch comes, finishing with a fluid, compact swing from the right side.
STRENGTHS With good bat control and contact skills, Rojas routinely puts the ball in play and extends at-bats. Although he doesn’t often show it in-game, he has respectable raw power for his size. He’s a relentless weapon on the basepaths, with double-plus speed and excellent instincts. He covers a ton of ground in center field with effortless strides and has a chance to be Gold Glove-caliber with more seasoning. His strong, above-average arm is more than playable in center.
WEAKNESSES Rojas has an aggressive approach at the plate, rarely walking and often making low quality contact by swinging at pitches he should avoid. His batted ball profile is ground ball heavy, and he will need to make some adjustments, as well as bulking up, to tap into his raw power. Rojas can be a bit overzealous as a runner, taking off on pickoff attempts and occasionally oversliding the base. Defensively, he could stand to be more assertive on fly balls that are shallow or in the gap, and he also has a tendency to take his first step in, although he has the speed to make up for it.
SUMMARY Rojas has the loudest tools and highest upside of any position player in the Phillies’ system. He looks like a sure fire everyday center fielder, but his ability to polish his toolset will determine whether he is a bottom-of-the-order defensive asset or a complete, five-tool player.
EVALUATOR Harris Yudin
6. Hao-Yu Lee, 2B - 45 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr., OF - 45 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: NCAA
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 141
8. William Bergolla Jr., SS - 45 OFP
Age: 18 Highest Level: DSL
2022 Pre-season Rank: N/A
9. Rickardo Perez, C - 45 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: CPX
2022 Pre-season Rank: 11 OFP: 45
10. Carlos De La Cruz, OF - 40 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked