About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Francisco Alvarez, C - 60 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 1 OFP: 60
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 70 | 50 | 60 | 40 | High |
PHYSICAL Alvarez has a short, stocky build with surprising athleticism. He’s muscular and physical throughout his whole body, and he utilizes his strength at the plate. His short, whippy swing comes with elite bat speed and hand-eye coordination.
STRENGTHS With double-plus raw power to all fields and the exit velocities to match that power in-game, Alvarez has one of the more exciting bats in the minors. His top end exit velocities are simply elite, and his ability to get the ball in the air suggests he’s a future slugger. He can handle high end velocity and consistently barrels up baseballs. He boasts very good pitch recognition, drawing plenty of walks and rarely chasing breaking balls below the zone. Defensively, he has very impressive arm strength with more than passable accuracy and is agile enough to capably block balls in the dirt. His defense behind the plate projects as average and, when combined with his offensive prowess, establishes legitimate All-Star potential.
WEAKNESSES Alvarez comes with a little bit of swing and miss in the zone, which contributed to fringe-average contact rates, but it’s not a huge concern. He was more aggressive at the plate in 2022, but he is still a bit too selective at times, too. Although he is not a liability behind the plate, he will likely never excel at blocking or receiving. He’s a fringe-average runner right now and will probably even lose a step as he gets older.
SUMMARY Alvarez’s upside is immeasurable and, while he will always be a bat-first player, minor improvements defensively could help him become baseball’s next superstar backstop. He’s expected to get some extra work behind the plate in Triple-A to start the year, but should slide into the middle of the Mets’ lineup by midseason.
EVALUATOR Harris Yudin
2. Brett Baty, 3B - 55 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 2 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 55 | 45 | 60 | 40 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Baty is maxed out physically with a strong, muscular build. He possesses a smooth, quick swing that generates good bat speed, and he is athletic and agile in the field.
STRENGTHS The 23-year-old produces consistent hard contact to all fields. He posted double-plus top end exit velocities last season in Double-A. He has a really good feel for the strike zone, and his long arms and contact ability provide him good plate coverage. He doesn’t show concerning chase rates, and his above-average bat-to-ball skills should allow him to put a bunch of balls in play. He has the raw skills to grow into a plus contact hitter, and he also has the potential for above-average or better game power. He puts on a display during batting practice with his raw power and, if he can consistently elevate the ball, that power should show up during games. Baty has a plus arm at third base, which should allow him to stick at the hot corner.
WEAKNESSES Baty can make the routine play at third base, and his arm helps offset his lack of quickness, but he doesn’t project as anything more than fringe-average in the field. There are also some questions about his ability to reach his power against big league pitching because he hits too many balls on the ground, although he did hit two home runs in just 38 at-bats during his brief big league debut. He’s a below-average runner.
SUMMARY Baty made some significant improvements with his hit tool in 2022. He still hit the ball on the ground more than desired, but he otherwise made strides to tap into more of his power. He has the arm that could anchor him down at the hot corner and, if he continues to reach enough of his power, he could be a long term everyday third baseman who flirts with all-star appearances. Baty is progressing nicely and has an opportunity to break camp with Mets to begin the season.
EVALUATOR Jared Perkins
3. Kevin Parada, C - 55 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: A
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 4
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 70 | 45 | 50 | 40 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Parada has a medium frame that is high-waisted. He has sloped shoulders and added strength to his frame last year. He’s an athletic catcher who has twitch in the batter’s box and present straight-line speed.
STRENGTHS The 21-year-old has incredible feel for the barrel and had among the most realized game power in last year’s draft class. His swing is on plane with a variety of pitches at nearly every part of the zone, and he now has the strength to take pitchers deep on the outer third. Much like Thanos, Parada is inevitable, and his game power projects as double-plus long term because of the quality of his bat-to-ball skills, propensity to get the ball in the air, and newfound strength. He posted plus exit velocities in his professional debut, and there’s room for growth. For a catcher, he is a good runner and can take the extra base if the defense sleeps on his speed. He demonstrated improved ability to frame pitches and is a solid blocker behind the plate. His arm strength is average behind the plate.
WEAKNESSES Well located secondaries and high fastballs with juice can elicit whiffs if pitchers put them in chase spots. Parada’s throwing mechanics are inconsistent, and base runners can run on him if they time his pitches. There is a reasonable fear that he will have to be moved off catcher at some point in the future, although it’s nearly universally accepted that his offensive production plays at any spot on the defensive spectrum.
SUMMARY One way to alleviate concerns about your defense is to simply mash at such an insane level that the question becomes irrelevant. Possessing the highest offensive floor in his draft class, Parada managed to fall to the Mets at pick 11 for an overslot deal in excess of $5 million. Even if you don’t believe his athleticism and makeup can translate into playable defense at catcher with targeted development, his elite feel for the barrel ensures that his bat will play at any spot on the field.
EVALUATOR Will Hoefer
4. Alex Ramirez, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 9 OFP: 45
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 55 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Ramirez has a good frame with room to fill out, particularly in his upper half. He’s tall and further strength may unlock more power. The right-hander is long-limbed, high-waisted, and one of the more well-rounded players in the system.
STRENGTHS The 20-year-old has above-average juice in his bat, with plus bat speed and solid raw strength. There’s room for more raw power if adds strength to his frame, and the nature of his swing and pull tendencies will allow him to reach above-average game power at full maturity. He also has a chance to grow into an average hit tool if he improves his approach. Ramirez is currently an above-average runner. He uses that speed in the outfield, where he primarily played center field last season. His above-average arm also plays in right field should he slide over sometime down the line.
WEAKNESSES Ramirez is probably not a center fielder. He makes some questionable reads and is too reliant on his speed to get to the baseball. His lack of efficiency with his routes suggest he will fit best in a corner outfield spot. Ramirez has a tendency to become too aggressive at the plate. His swing-happy approach will result in whiffs, and he has an opportunity to let the game slow down a little. An improvement with his approach will help his offensive tools reach their maximum potential, but he’s yet to make that change. While he has the speed to steal bases, he is aggressive and makes iffy decisions on when to run. He might also lose a half step with further mass.
SUMMARY Ramirez is a very exciting player who’s profile is carried by his power. The betting favorite is that he bulks up and moves to right field, but that will put more pressure on his bat to perform. He nonetheless has the power and arm strength to profile there. Plus game power isn’t out of the question, and that could allow him to emerge as a middle-of-the-order bat. The profile is similar to Hunter Renfroe.
EVALUATOR Rhys White
5. Jett Williams, SS - 50 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: CPX
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 37
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 45 | 50 | 50 | 60 | High |
PHYSICAL Williams fits the mold of the smaller middle infielder, similar to what Dustin Pedroia was. He’s very athletic and has a lean frame with some projection and equally proportionate strength. He did add strength to his frame leading up to the draft. His operation features a subtle leg kick with a little drift with his swing.
STRENGTHS Williams has long been known for his excellent bat-to-ball skills and his style of play, which follows the “chip on his shoulder” mentality. It’s a solid approach at the plate with little swing and miss to his game and, while his swing does have some loft to it, it’s more suited for spraying line drives. He has some sneaky power, although the power projection is likely limited to fringe-average. He’s more of a fit at second base, but his plus speed could allow him to play some center field, too. He has solid movements and hands in the infield with an average arm. He’ll be a legitimate base stealing threat.
WEAKNESSES With projection being limited due to his size and frame, Williams likely won’t have more than fringe-average power. His range at shortstop is relatively limited despite his speed, and it’s more than likely that he’ll eventually move to second base, or even center field, in due time. He also had a shoulder injury during the summer showcase in 2021 which hampered his arm strength, although some believe it’s average when healthy.
SUMMARY While the power lags behind in his profile, the plus hit tool and speed gives Williams a potent mix of tools. He’ll start off at shortstop, but the expectation is a move to second base or center field is likely. He’ll likely see time in Single-A to start 2023.
EVALUATOR Tyler Jennings
6. Ronny Mauricio, SS - 45 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 5 OFP: 50
7. Blade Tidwell, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: A
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 30
8. Mark Vientos, 3B - 45 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 4 OFP: 50
9. Calvin Ziegler, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 12 OFP: 45
10. Dominic Hamel, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 6 OFP: 50