Helping to keep everyone up-to-date on what is coming out and what might be worthy of your time in the Baseball Card Hobby for the current week. Check out our Discord for more discussion on this and any other hobby chatter - Prospects Live Discord.
This week there are four scheduled releases - 2023 Panini Elite Extra Edition, 2023 Topps Transcendent, 2024 Topps Big League, and 2024 Topps Tribute.
This post will be updated if more news, product information and/or product drops occur throughout the week.
2023 Panini Elite Extra Edition
The prospect product from Panini is scheduled to release on Wednesday, March 27th.
There are two hobby configurations - a regular Hobby box and a 1st Off The Line (FOTL) Hobby box. Each hobby format comes with 10 hits - 8 autos and 2 relics on average. The only difference is that FOTL will have two low numbered out of 20 autographed parallel exclusives. FOTL Hobby boxes went through the Dutch Auction last week and likely hit the floor of $100 (it’s always tough to tell with the way Panini does these auctions). Currently Dave and Adam’s Card World (DACW) is selling FOTL Hobby boxes for $179.95. Regular Hobby boxes are currently being sold by Blowout Cards for $100. Typically Elite Extra Edition (EEE) also gets a retail release - usually blaster/value boxes in that $20 - $25 range. In years past, they have come with 2 hits on average and can be relics or autos, with the odds favoring the relics. ***Update - Panini is selling Hobby boxes for $100 with a transaction limit of 20 boxes.
The design is always VERY busy with EEE, with a ton of angles and colors going on. For whatever reason I’ve never been a fan of their designs since I got back into the hobby, and that carries on here. I have seen some folks that do like the designs over the years, often because it’s “different” than most other releases. You know a EEE card when you see it, at the very least. Autos are almost, if not all going to be stickers, and relics are almost, if not all going to be player worn at best. Last year they included an “On Campus” set similar to the Downtown insert, but I don’t currently see that on the checklist. That does have a slight detraction from the overall product value.
Speaking of the checklist, it is purely focused on prospects, including the second overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft, Dylan Crews. That’s a relatively good selling point as Crews has yet to appear in an officially licensed MLB (Topps) product. And I have my doubts he will appear in one, at least as a prospect. One thing to note is that a majority of the 2023 MLB draft picks in the product will appear in their amateur (college/high school) uniforms on the card, but their team’s location (Washington for example with Crews) will show on the card. Other big names like Paul Skenes, Matt Shaw, Tommy Troy, Colt Emerson, Bryce Eldridge, Hurston Waldrep, Rhett Lowder, etc. from the 2023 MLB draft are also in the product. In addition, we get some international players including the top two players in the most recent signing class, Leo De Vries and Jose Perdomo.
I don’t mind getting a small piece of EEE because it’s cheap access to a ton of desirable and PC prospects. I expect Crews, Skenes, De Vries, and Perdomo to sell decently well in the first few weeks after this product drops, so there is some short-term value here as well. On the other hand, over the long run, most of the cards from this product don’t hold a ton of value outside of unique cases (possibly like Dylan Crews).
2023 Topps Transcendent
The highest end product in the baseball card world, 2023 Topps Transcendent is scheduled to release on Wednesday, March 27th.
There is one format, a “regular” Hobby box. It’s typically a metal briefcase containing the 84 cards in various formats plus the VIP party invitation (with 9 super VIP invitations that can be pulled called “Transcendent Tier”). This year the format has been changed up with the base set (non-auto) going the way of the dodo bird. Essentially this has been replaced by ten packs of chrome cards with 4 cards per pack. One superfractor 1/1 card is guaranteed to be pulled from those ten packs (not guaranteed to be an auto). It’s not clear if all cards are autographed or if it will be a mix of non-auto and auto cards coming from these chrome packs. ***Update - it looks to be a mix of auto and non-auto cards per chrome pack - I’ve seen zero auto packs, one auto packs, and two auto packs. If you are buying these packs as single break options or in the aftermarket, be very careful as you may end up with a zero auto pack. I’ve also seen multiple Superfractor autos pulled from the same set of 10 chrome packs. I’ve also seen a case missing a Superfractor in the Chrome packs. Another change is that what used to be a 50 card framed auto set, usually with two guaranteed 1/1 cards, is now 40 cards spread across 20 framed autographs, 10 autographed patch cards, and 10 rookie showcase autographs or patch autographs. For the single cards that are always present, we have a throwback superfractor auto (1959 design), a through the years autograph featuring various historic Topps designs that will mostly feature Ichiro, a jumbo patch relic autograph booklet, and the always desirable cut autograph card. In years past the cut auto was always an oversized card, but this year that will only be the case when there are multiple cut signatures included on the card. On the twitter machine, an account I won’t mention has said that this product retails around $20,000. That may be the case if you are buying them through distribution channels, but if you can find them, they are more than likely closer to that $25K - $30K range. Houdini (CheapFunBreaks) is one of the main breakers that does Transcendent breaks and is currently selling spots for $462.99 which comes out to roughly a bit over $25K. Obviously there is built in shipping and profit into that number, but that’s sort of besides the point. This year there are 190 cases. I haven’t been tracking this closely over the years, but I recall that it’s usually somewhere in the 99-100 print run with 2022 having a 99 box print run. The format change probably was in part to support an increased print run.
The design isn’t anything worth discussing as it doesn’t drive any added or negative value. The initial cost and rarity of the cards are what drives the value, and the design is essentially an afterthought. Historic Topps designs are fun to see, metal framed cards are nice, on card autos across the board, and the elimination of the oversized card (with a few exceptions) are all the main design elements that are worthy of mention. The new chrome cards are also going to be interesting to see. Will there be condition issues or will these be higher quality than most of the mass-produced chrome products?
The checklist is not yet released, but it typically is a mix of high-end rookies, current vets, and ex-MLB players. This is a 2023 product, so we expect to see Adley Rutschman, Corbin Carroll, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Volpe, Jordan Walker, Michael Harris II, and probably a few others. The big cut auto chase that has been teased is an oversized quad cut of the Beatles - four individual cut autos combined onto one card. There’s been a bit of silly controversy around it with the account I won’t mention, but if you are interested, simply search Beatles and Transcendent on twitter to see the discussion.
I don’t ever partake in Transcendent breaks - I just feel the price vs. risk is way too high. This is purely a high roller product, and I am no high roller. Perhaps if you want a high risk, high reward gamble, this product is worth a shot. Hitting the VIP ticket can be worth roughly $5K in resale value (and perhaps more for the super VIP tickets). But you can also end up with an auto that sells for $50 or less (searching eBay listings for these cards are not for the faint of heart).
2024 Topps Big League
The low-end product that is often seen as an entry-level, kid-friendly set is scheduled for release on Wednesday, March 27th. This product went through the pre-sale process on Tuesday, March 5th. Hobby boxes were $49.99 at pre-sale. Check This Week in Baseball Cards from that week for all the details. ***Update - Topps is selling Hobby boxes for the same as the pre-sale price of $49.99 with a customer limit of 10. They are also selling retail Blaster/Value boxes for $24.99 with a customer limit of 10. These come with exclusive Electric Orange Parallels.
2024 Topps Tribute
The mid-tier product that tends to have a lot of popularity given it’s early timing on the calendar along with desirable rookie autos is scheduled for release on Wednesday, March 27th. This product went through the pre-sale process on Wednesday, March 6th. Hobby boxes were $499.99 and Cases of Hobby boxes were $2,999.94 at pre-sale. Check This Week in Baseball Cards from that week for all the details. ***Update - Topps is selling Hobby boxes for $524.99 with a customer limit of 4 and Cases of Hobby boxes (6 boxes per case) for $3,049.99 with a customer limit of 2.