On Friday night, Mississippi State ace Landon Sims left his start in the fourth inning, his head buried in his glove, nervously chewing the leather strands that hold it together as trainers walked with him off the field. His last pitch resulted in a grimace and subsequent shaking of his right hand. It’s too early to tell the severity of the injury, but it’s a scene we’ve all grown too familiar witnessing on the mound. Hopefully this one was a blister, but the motion is often indicative of a guy shaking a tingling sensation out of his throwing arm.
While not quite as famous as Sims, Oregon righty Adam Maier, the no. 53 ranked draft-prospect on the Prospects Live Top 300, also left his start, his right arm being massaged by trainers as he exited the field.
The 2022 college pitching crop has been decimated by injuries. Its depth was in question well before guys started going down with injuries. Alabama lefty Connor Prielipp went down late in 2021 with a torn UCL. In December, Connecticut lefty Reggie Crawford suffered the same injury. In January, it was Arkansas righty Peyton Pallette going under the knife; Tommy John. Duke righty Henry Williams followed suit shortly thereafter. Tennessee’s Blade Tidwell has seen his season shortened with a shoulder injury. It’s unknown whether he’ll pitch this year. East Carolina southpaw Carson Whisenhunt hasn’t taken the mound for disciplinary reasons. A complicated matter, Whisenhunt may not pitch this season either.
The potential of losing Sims and Maier only muck up an already complicated year for college pitching.
There’s a rather good chance we’re at the doorstep of witnessing the most anemic MLB Draft, in terms of college pitching, in the history of the event. Entering Friday, Sims was the only college pitcher ranked inside the Prospects Live Top 30 prospects for the 2022 MLB Draft.
If Sims injury is serious, it might lock in the first draft without a college pitcher selected in the top ten since 1990. 32 years. There’s at least a chance this will be the first year since 1971 where a college pitcher isn’t selected in the first round at all. That’s happened five times. 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969 and 1971. But these are different times. Roster building is completely different. In the last 43 years, 1982 represents the only year where less than four college pitchers were selected in the first round (3).
Serious injury is far from a disqualifier for a pitcher being selected in the first round either. It seems every year we see an arm destined for Tommy John surgery still go in the first round. In 2021, the Blue Jays selected Gunnar Hoglund with the 19th pick in the draft. He blew out a couple months prior to being selected.
But that doesn’t change the narrative here. Some guys are going to have to really step up this spring and establish themselves as premier arms if this class hopes to avoid history. There’s plenty of talent in this class to do it too. Florida lefty Hunter Barco has looked strong early on and has certainly made the case of a first-round talent. Florida State southpaw Bryce Hubbart has been magnificent, and he has his advocates at the top, but will scouts be able to look past his lack of velocity and physicality on the mound in July? Iowa’s Adam Mazur, Oregon State’s Cooper Hjerpe, Gonzaga’s Gabriel Hughes, Cal’s Josh White, and Campbell’s Thomas Harrington all have the upside to reach that tier, to name a few. But each has plenty of work to do before cementing themselves as a day one value.
At time of publish, we don’t know the severity of Sims’ or Maier’s injuries. We can certainly hope for the best. But regardless of their health, this college pitching class is shaping up to be one of the worst classes ever, and maybe the worst representation of their demographic on draft day in 50 years.