Fastballs are the foundation of most pitchers' arsenal. Even as the usage of them falls every year, the fastball is still by far the most used pitch league wide. If a player is elite at hitting the fastball, it is very likely they will find success in the major league's presuming they are capable of not chasing breaking balls all the time. So who are some of the best fastball hitters in the minors? That is what we are looking at today.
Want to know who has some of the best fastball in the minors? I covered that here.
So what makes a good fastball hitter? Generally, I am looking for two things when determining if someone crushes fastballs. How good are their wOBAcons? And how often are they making contact? However, just taking the players with the best wOBAcons and best contact rates would be a misleading and insufficient process. We want players who can be expected to crush the pitch at the MLB level. That means we need to filter to look at how they can handle upper velocity, pitches up in the zone, and pitches with lots of movement. In this article, I will highlight five MiLB hitters who dominate MLB caliber fastballs, and how that might define their career trajectory.
Logan O’Hoppe
Key Stats: 89.5% Contact, 60.9% ZSwing, 11.9% Chase, .468 xwOBAcon
Logan O’Hoppe was traded to the Los Angeles Angels for Brandon Marsh from the NL Pennant Winners, the Philadelphia Phillies. Marsh helped the Phillies reach the World Series, but the Angels shouldn’t be feeling too bad about their side of the deal either as they likely secured their catcher of the future in O’Hoppe. Logan is one of the best fastball hitters in the game and abuses that one carrying skill to great success.
To understand why Logan O’Hoppe is such an elite fastball hitter, you have to first understand why he is productive in the first place. He doesn’t exactly have loud raw tools. He has below-average raw power. His 90th EV is just 100.6 MPH (MLB Average 103.8) and he hits just 27.3% of his batted balls hard. Despite that, O’Hoppe slugged .529 this year and that was not a fluke or a byproduct of a hitter friendly environment. The reason that O’Hoppe was able to play at a 40 HR/162 pace is because of two things. He hits 47.1% of his batted balls in the air, which is in the 95th percentile of all players. The other skill is just as important. O’Hoppe pulls 42.5% of his flyballs. He has no power going the other way- every home run he hit this year was to his pull side. However, he has the 7th highest pull rate on flyballs of any player so the power plays way above where it would be expected to. He pairs that with one of the highest flyball rates in the nation. This leads to a lot of home runs.
So why is Logan O’Hoppe so good against the fastball? He sells out to be early on them- and it works with a 45.2% pull rate against the fastball which is in the 90th percentile. He also has one of the highest aerial pull rates at 38.6% against the fastball. O’Hoppe actually has a steep attack angle which is why he can put the ball in the air as often as he does along with great flexibility in his core that allows him to still demolish the high fastball. However, selling out for the fastball is not without its drawbacks.
Logan O’Hoppe is frequently out in front of secondary pitches. As a result, he has just a 68% contact rate against secondaries. I want to make it clear that these are timing based whiffs, and not at all a location problem. O’Hoppe’s in-zone contact rates are nearly identical in the bottom half compared to the top half against the breaker.
However, what’s interesting is that O’Hoppe makes more contact against the low fastball but does less damage on contact with just a .279 xwOBAcon against the low fastball. This is because when the pitch is down, O’Hoppe is more likely to guess breaker, and sell out to pull that pitch which leaves him late on the fastball. By the same token, O’Hoppe makes higher quality contact against the low well-executed breaking ball than he does the hanging one.
This fills me with confidence that O’Hoppe can succeed in the majors, even if he only hits one pitch. Logan O’Hoppe is a guess hitter, but the game is rigged in his favor. He will mostly guess fastball, because that is the pitch that is thrown most often, but if you try to spam breakers, he will adjust and start hitting and crushing those. O’Hoppe has an elite feel to make contact with whatever he is sitting on and will pull that pitch over the wall. He never chases, and is aggressive with the pitch he is hunting. The fastball hunter is incredible, and what you will see most from O’Hoppe, but he’s capable of making adjustments to take advantage of his matchup.
Coby Mayo
Key Stats: 86.1% Contact, 68.2% ZSwing, 22.3% Chase, .451 xwOBAcon
Coby Mayo was the Orioles 4th round pick in the truncated 2020 draft. Just two and a half seasons later, Mayo is a consensus top 100 talent, and looks like he will be a core piece for the Orioles moving forwards. His success is in large part due to his outstanding ability to hit the high heat.
Coby Mayo is good against all fastballs, but what makes him stand out from the pack is how good he is against the high fastball. Mayo has a 91.8% contact rate against fastballs in the top third of the strike zone. That is in the 99th percentile of all players at any level. Mayo isn’t just making contact at the top of the zone, however, he’s also hitting the ball hard. In the top third of the zone, Mayo has a 41.2% Hard-Hit Rate. There is no other player with a contact rate over 90%, and a hard-hit rate that high.
Most players who kill the high fastball do so because of a flat VBA and flat attack angle. This leads to them hitting a lot of ground balls, and failing to tap into their raw power in games due to the swing plane. Mayo does not follow that trend. He has a steep VBA with a flatter attack angle, and still has above-average flyballs rates — even in the top third. Why? It has a lot to do with his shoulder strength as he has no trouble with keeping his upper body intact while lifting the shoulder to get to the high pitch consistently. He also has fantastic barrel accuracy which plays a key role in making sure Mayo is not getting on top of pitches from the start,
Coby Mayo is a monster against vertical movement, for similar reasons. Against pitches with plus vertical movement (18”), Mayo is unstoppable with a .573 xwOBAcon and an 83% contact rate. He is also unchallenged by flat approach angles as he has an 85.7% contact rate with a .435 xwOBAcon against pitches with a VAA flatter than the MLB average four-seam. Coby Mayo’s quick hands and direct bat path, also make velocity easy for Mayo to beat. He has a .473 xwOBAcon and an 85.3% Hard-Hit rate against fastballs at 95+. Everything you look for in the modern four-seam fastball, Mayo obliterates.
However, Coby Mayo is not without his flaws. His lower half is somewhat stiff, and the flat attack angles still lead to some trouble connecting with pitches down in the zone. He has below-average wOBAcons and contact rates against fastballs down in the zone. He also is particularly poor against pitches with at well below-average vertical movement (14”). He has just a .338 xwOBAcon as he has proven incapable of pulling the ball in the air, when the pitch is moving against his bat path.
These problems extend beyond just the low fastball. Mayo also has problems with doing damage on breaking balls, because he can not hit the pitches down in the zone. He posted just a 50.3% contact rate against breakers in the lower third, and a .252 xwOBAcon. Mayo capitalizes on hanging pitches, but as he climbs the ladder, breaking ball stuff, command, and usage is all going to uptick and this problem could be his undoing. To be fair to Mayo, he has below-average chase rates against breaking balls. The four-seam hitting carries the profile, and might make Mayo better suited for a somewhat situational role. He can start most games, but it’s probably best to sit him against pitchers who spam the breaking ball or have a very steep VAA on their fastball.
Edouard Julien
Key Stats: 88.2% Contact, 61.7% ZSwing, 10.0% Chase, .467 xwOBAcon
Edouard Julien was an 18th-round pick out Auburn back in 2019. From the moment he was drafted, Julien has done nothing but hit. He might not have a clear defensive home, but Julien is one of the best pure hitters in all of the minor leagues and that will see him to an everyday role in the majors. Julien hits at a high level against just about everything, but his best work does come against the fastball.
Edouard Julien has no trouble with the high heat. In fact, Julien prefers his fastballs high and as hard as possible. Against fastballs in the top third, Julien had a .572 xwOBAcon with an 83.6% contact rate. Against fastballs in the bottom third, Julien had just a .323 xwOBAcon, albeit with a nearly identical 84% contact rate. However, this lack of quality contact on low pitches is far from crippling, because of how Julien manages it. Edouard swings at just 25% of fastballs in the bottom third. He swings at 42.7% of fastballs anywhere else. That is a real carrying skill for Julien. He tracks pitches and only attacks the ones he knows he can damage.
The reason that Jullien can’t damage the low fastball is mechanical. Julien actually has average attack angles normally. His VBA is a bit on the flatter end, but it’s nothing abnormal either. So why is Julien struggling to do damage on the low pitch and crushing the high one? It has to do with the shoulders. Julien dips his shoulders and sells out for a steep VBA against the low pitch. He does the opposite against high stuff.
Above is Julien at the point of contact against his hardest hit FF in the top third and hardest hit FF in the bottom third.
The dipped shoulders are the key. When the shoulders dip, the barrel enters the hitting zone later- often out in front of the plate. This leads to Julien pulling a lot more fastballs, and because his attack angle is unchanged even as the bat path is completely different- he’s hitting the ball with less authority the other way because he’s not as consistent in squaring up pitches. He is also early a lot more often on the low-pitch because typically on pitches move down, you’re more likely to guess breaker. I’ll also note the xwOBAcon is very misleading- his changing bat path means that he’s hitting with backspin and that leads to him outperforming the xwOBAcon and playing at a .417 wOBAcon.
I believe his problems are fairly easily remedied problems. Edouard Julien actually hits the ball just as hard hitting it the other way as he does to his pullside. He also hits less groundballs when he is early on pitches- he has a 68.8% pullside groundball rate against fastballs, and just a 26.2% groundball rate on non-pulled ones. This leads to his wOBAcons being .180 higher against non-pulled fastballs compared to their pullside contemporaries. This is a large part of why Julien has a .620 xwOBAcon against fastballs at 95+- he is late on them more, and that means more aerial contact. The easiest way to get Julien to reach his full potential, would be to have him sit breaker full time. This would make him regularly late on the fastball- as he wants to be, and early on the breaker- which he also wants to be.
Edouard Jullien has one horrible flaw that will keep him underrated by most publications. He is “bad” against left-handed pitching. I say bad as if he didn’t have an above-average wOBA against them this year, The line is just a very abnormal .218/.390/.303 against lefties this year, I think he might be destined for a platoon role, but a strong-side platoon player can still easily provide more value than most everyday players. Julien has a special blend of contact skills, power, barrel accuracy, and an inhumanly good approach that has me confident he will succeed in the majors.
Hunter Feduccia
Key Stats: 85.8% Contact, 66.0% ZSwing, 13.8% Chase, .497 xwOBAcon
When I first came up with the idea for this article, I expected all five players covered to look something like Feduccia. They would hit the fastball, and only the fastball which would lead to unsustainably good results in the minors. The Dodgers 25-year-old backstop is very much a one-trick pony. Fortunately, his one trick is a very good one.
Hunter Feduccia is one of the best fastball hitters in the game, and it is likely that his success against the fastball will translate against higher level competition. There is nobody in the entirety of professional baseball who saw as many fastballs, and matched Feduccia in both contact rate and wOBAcon. He also showed no cracks based on location, speed, or movement.
Feduccia is actually better against fastballs that are thrown with at least MLB average velocity. If the pitch is at 93.7 MPH+, Feduccia has a .557 xwOBAcon with an 86.2% contact rate. The only player better than Feduccia against MLB caliber velocity is the player we just covered, Edouard Julien. Feduccia has no trouble hitting plus vertical movement as well, as he has a .595 xwOBAcon, and 92.7% contact rate against pitches with 18” or more IVB.
On top of dominating velocity, Feduccia is great at hitting the fastball in any location. At the top of the zone, it’s a .514 xwOBAcon and an 80.8% contact rate. In the lower third his xwOBAcon drops to .498 but it is a 94.1% contact rate. Amusingly enough, it’s the middle third where he has the worst contact quality. He also has no difficulty with inside pitches. On pitches inside he has a .489 xwOBAcon with an 88.6% contact rate. On pitches outside, you finally get to see Feduccia crack. He only has just a 74.7% contact rate and a .438 xwOBAcon.
Hunter Feduccia dominates every variation of the fastball, but his success ends there. He struggles to a 59.2% contact rate, and a .325 xwOBAcon against breaking balls. He is even worse against offspeed. Feduccia’s strategy is to exclusively hunt the fastball in the minors. I’m skeptical he can find the same success doing so in the majors. However, if he is able to maintain his current discipline against breakers in the majors, he might find a role somewhere.
James Wood
Key Stats: 82.1% Contact, 64.7% ZSwing, 13.6% Chase, .545 xwOBAcon
James Wood was the centerpiece of the Juan Soto return for the Nationals. I’ve already broken down his potential extensively, so why not go another layer deeper into what makes him so special. James Wood is the best fastball hitter in the minor leagues on top of all the other impressive tools and skills.
First off, James Wood makes elite swing decisions against the fastball. He swung at just 13.6% of out of zone fastballs which is in the 93rd percentile of all players at any level. His 64.7% Z-Swing is below-average but not dangerously so. This is the least important part of hitting the fastball as out of zone fastballs aren’t nearly as impactful as out of zone secondaries, but Wood still excels in that regard. He then also has plus contact rates against fastballs, and a 99th percentile xwOBAcon against them.
When you start to filter the fastball based on pitch quality, however, Wood separates himself from the pack. Against fastballs at 93+ MPH, James Wood has the highest xwOBAcon of any hitter to see at least 200 pitches at that speed with him sitting at… 0.794. On top of having the best contact quality of any player at any level against top-end velocity, Wood has an 89th percentile contact rate against fastballs at 93+.
Let’s try raising the bar a bit. Against fastballs at 95+ with a minimum of 100 seen, James Wood still has the highest xwOBAcon in the game, but it’s all the way up to 0.972. That is over .100 points higher than the second place player. He also has a 93rd percentile contact rate against 95+. It doesn’t make perfect sense, but the faster the fastball is, the better James Wood is against it.
James Wood is not just able to hit velocity though. He also hits pitches with lots of movement. On pitches with over 18” of ride, he has a .599 xwOBAcon and a 81.1% contact rate. Against pitches with over 12” of horizontal movement, Wood is relatively bad. Relative is the key word as he still has a 77% contact rate with a .552 xwOBAcon. Movement is not going to stop James Wood from hitting, and neither is velocity.
Fastball location is also largely irrelevant with James Wood at the plate. The high fastball is the one maybe problematic element of the fastball hitting profile, and he still has almost exactly average xwOBAcons and contact rates against the high-fastball. He also never chases the high-fastball with just an 11.3% chase rate against the high fastball, and the lack of aggression against the high fastball means this “flaw” is far from fatal. Other than the high fastball, James Wood hits everything. In the lower and middle third he is 95th percentile or better in both contact rate and xwOBAcon. He also has no trouble whatsoever with hitting fastballs inside or outside.
James Wood doesn’t only hit fastballs either. He’s elite against offspeed stuff. He actually makes more in-zone contact against changeups, and still has a great xwOBAcon. He is relatively horrible against breakers, but it’s still a slightly above-average xwOBAcon, and an elite in-zone contact rate. James Wood is a five-tool monster who will provide value in every part of the game, and his fastball hitting prowess is a large part of why Wood is arguably the best prospect in the game.