The 2023 MLB Draft is almost eight months away, but big boards are already being built and the “top” guys are being firmly entrenched in public circles. Everyone knows guys like Dylan Crews, Chase Dollander and Jacob Gonzalez. But big league rosters, and often championship rosters, are built in the middle rounds. Being able to identify tools and traits in a player that teams can develop into valuable assets at the next level is where real exorbitant value is discovered.
Just look at the 2022 Houston Astros. So much of their success came by way of guys selected after day one of the draft. Jeremy Peña is a bonafide star. He was a third round selection out of the University of Maine. Chas McCormick had several big moments during the postseason. He was selected in the 21st round in 2017 out of Millersville University of Pennsylvania. David Hensley, Mauricio Dubon, Jake Meyers… none of them were particularly high draft picks.
The 2023 draft class will feature hundreds of position players who go selected after day one. Here’s a few to keep an eye on. These guys may not have the tools to work up into the first round, but they do possess interesting characteristics that could be leveraged at the next level.
Justin Riemer, Wright State, 2B
The 2022 MLB Draft saw University of Charlotte second baseman Nate Furman and University of San Diego second baseman Chase Meidroth both get selected in the fourth round. The switch-hitting Riemer squarely fits in that bucket in 2023. A hit-over-everything infielder with elite bat-to-ball skills.
Riemer isn’t necessarily the most tooled-up prospect available in the 2023 draft, but he offers one of the safer floors in the class. Riemer slashed .329/.454/.459 last season for Wright State. He hit just two homers and stole just seven bases, splitting his time between second base and shortstop. Notably, he drew 31 free passes, striking out just 12 times – nearly a 3:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio. For comparison, Furman slashed .371/.502/.474 with two homers and 21 stolen bases while Meidroth slashed .329/.440/.544 with ten homers and six stolen bases.
In terms of tools, I’ve got Riemer squarely an average defender with soft hands and solid actions on the dirt. That said, he doesn’t have a particularly strong throwing arm and his future home is without question second base. He’s a rangy player who moves well laterally though his unconventional arm action limits his ability on plays to his right. It can work at shortstop in a pinch, but it’d be a liability full-time. Riemer reminds me a bit of Brad Miller during his time at Clemson and in his early days in Seattle. He’s a guy whose athleticism comes by way of controlled chaos; limbs flying everywhere, a scrappy baller who makes things happen. I do believe Riemer is a bigger threat on the bases than his baseball card would suggest. He’s an above average runner underway with a strong first step and an athletic gait.
The metrics are where the parallels between Furman, Meidroth and Riemer really start to stick out. Some would argue the metrics can be predictive in how all three will pan out over time. According to Synergy, Riemer made 225 swings last season and whiffed just nine times -- good for a 4% whiff rate. Over 381 swings, Meidroth featured a 12% whiff rate last season while Furman sported an 8% whiff rate over 373 swings. Furman’s 17% chase rate and Meidroth’s 21% chase rate both pale in comparison to Riemer’s 8% chase rate. Riemer’s approach and bat-to-ball skills are elite by every measure. That said, all three players feature well below-average exit velocities both in average and peak batted-ball outcomes, so projecting real impact at the next level might be an exercise in futility.
Riemer can really hit, and I think he can handle second base a bit better than both Furman and Meidroth. He’s a better runner than Meidroth too. If he can repeat his outlandish 2022 campaign for Wright State in 2023, he’s got a chance to go in the 3-6 round range.
Spencer Nivens, Missouri State, LF
Nivens is a fun and terrifically interesting outfield prospect heading into the 2023 season. Missouri State has done a wonderful job developing the 5-foot-11-inch, 185-pound hitter over the last two seasons, helping to turn him into a formidable middle-of-the-order presence.
Nivens is coming off a fantastic 2022 campaign where he slashed .346/.443/.542 with eleven homers. He had 44 walks and 45 punch outs, roughly a 15% mark on both fronts. He’s got tremendous bat speed and features a swing that stays well-connected and utilizes ground force better than most as a means for producing impact. Nivens has been susceptible to changeups fading out of the zone from right-handed pitchers, especially early in counts, but when he falls behind, he’s shown a willingness to adjust. In terms of pure tools, he’s a fringe-average runner with a fringe-average arm, probably best-suited for left field. He’s a better athlete than his tools would suggest, playing the ball well and running solid routes in the field.
Nivens’ metrics at the plate really point to a potential impact bat at the next level, reaffirming what the eye test suggests. His 12% chase rate is elite, ranking in the 99th percentile of all college hitters in 2022. His peak exit velocity of 111.3 mph ranks in the 95th percentile of all hitters, so the raw juice is certainly present. Furthermore, Nivens had a whiff rate of just 9% on pitches north of 92 mph last season. As a matter of principle, from this chair, a solid track record against big velocity at the amateur level is a key indicator for finding success as a professional. Nivens checks that box with authority. Skeptics will look at the warts with changeups and splitters from righties with pause, but I think most would agree we’re working with a strong foundation here.
If Nivens can up the athletic tools a tick and handle the off-speed stuff with more conviction next season, his profile compares favorably to a guy like Georgia Tech outfielder Tres Gonzalez, a 5th round pick by the Pirates this summer.
Garret Forrester, Oregon State, 1B
Forrester is a tricky prospect to gauge as he’s a first baseman who doesn’t carry the big power most qualify as a prerequisite for the position. “GForce”, as he’s affectionally nicknamed, has posted back-to-back impressive campaigns in the Pac-12. His .332/.480/.498 slash with nine homers last season is solid. When you fold in his 64 walks and just 48 strikeouts, the maturity at the plate really becomes clear.
Forrester’s offensive specs really write the narrative of a complete hitter whose game should transition beautifully to the next level. A righty stick, Forrester ran an 84% contact rate in 2022 with a minuscule 13.4% chase rate, the latter being an elite figure. Forrester is a well-balanced hitter, shooting balls gap to gap with the ability to poke balls over the fence to all fields. In fact, of his nine home runs, four were to left, one went to center, and the other four were over the right field fence. If there’s one area scouts will want to see improve in 2023, it’ll be in his batted-ball data. Forrester’s exit velocities are largely average across the board. As a right-handed hitting first baseman, scouts will want to see more impact potential next season.
In terms of athletic tools, Forrester works well around the first base bag, though he lacks a strong drop-step on balls to his right. He’s one of the most accomplished first baseman in his conference in terms of digging out errant throws in the dirt, and from this chair, projects to be an average first baseman at the next level. Forrester is a below average runner and likely won’t ever be a threat on the base paths.
At the end of the day, Forrester reminds me a bit of Kyle Manzardo entering the 2021 season. A pure hitter with an immaculate approach at the plate and sublime bat-to-ball skills. Though like Manzardo, he lacks athletic upside. Forrester is a right-handed hitter, so the offensive bar will be higher than his lefty counterpart. If Forrester can hit the ball with a bit more authority in 2023, he’s got a shot to go in the 4-7 round range.