The first round of the 2021 MLB Draft presented a ton fo spice and storylines. Teams really veered away from traditional models and instead went after players they generally haven’t targeted in recent history. Some teams, however, drafted players that fit their player development specialties to a T. We continue to believe knowing your player development strengths in an integral part of successful drafting for future impact.
With that said, we believe these three teams really drafted well in terms of acquiring talent they can optimize and help reach their eventual ceiling.
St. Louis Cardinals — Michael McGreevy
McGreevy isn’t the sexiest pick in a prep-rich first round, but he may ultimately end up one of the better picks in the class. McGreevy is a true four-pitch righty with an advanced feel for command. The UCSB hurler is primarily a sinker-baller who equally balances his curveball, slider and changeup into his 9-inning arsenal. The sinker has been up to 96, but more commonly sits 91-92 with arm-side run. The changeup, for my money, is his best secondary right now, a mid-80s tumbler he commands well with conviction. The curveball flashes above average-to-plus in the upper-70s with unique shape. A mid-80s slider rounds out the repertoire, another average-to-above average weapon.
The Cardinals have had success with this clay in the past. Dakota Hudson, their first round selection in 2016, has a similar profile and build. St. Louis has helped develop the 6-foot-5-inch arm into a mid-rotation starter with an up arrow next to his name. Hudson has never had the changeup McGreevy possesses, thus the intrigue moving forward.
Jake Woodford has yet to put it all together, but he looks every bit that of a future mid-to-backend of the rotation starter with four pitches with a sinker emphasis. He’s a sinker, slider, curveball horse who’s starting to figure it out. Again, Woodford has never had the feel for a changeup McGreevy has. Something to consider.
In similar, though more adjacent degrees, Junior Fernandez, Daniel Ponce de Leon, and Carlos Martinez all carry similar profiles and represent varying degrees of successful development. We think McGreevy will find a lot of success in St. Louis and could move very quickly.
San Diego Padres — Jackson Merrill
The Padres have made hay developing young, malleable lefty bats. Merrill is an extremely raw stick, but the physical tools and upwards trajectory is just kind of meat San Diego likes to sink it’s development teeth into. Merrill currently employs an inside-out, Florida Chop swing, though most of that is a byproduct of seeing an immense amount of breaking balls in league play. He’ll need to work on pulling the ball with authority, but when he figures it out, the plus raw pull-side juice will play loud. Merrill may not be a shortstop long-term, he may be forced to third base, but it’s a plus-plus arm that’s been clocked as hot as 94 across the diamond.
The Padres have helped prep lefty sticks get more into their hips and realize their pull-authority. CJ Abrams is beginning to tap into his raw power, and a similar path could be employed into Merrill. Tucapita Marcano may not be a power bat, but there were evaluators who believed he’d never possesses more than a well below average thump. He’s probably more of a fringy power stick now, a testament to his hard work and the Padres plan. Elsewhere, Tirso Ornelas is looking like a promising lefty bat, and Robert Hassell III is their latest project working to tap into lefty pull-side power.
Merrill is a project, no doubt. He might not be a big leaguer until 2025. But there’s a little Chase Utley in this swing and we like that.
Tampa Bay Rays — Carson Williams
Is it really a draft/development feature without mentioning the Tampa Bay Rays? Carson Williams is such a Tampa pick. We’re talking about a guy with an extremely hot runway of late with exponential helium since October. Williams won the WWBA MVP award in October and got even more physical since then. It’s a big, projectable righty bat with a line-drive attack angle and present bat speed. Scouts can be a little divided on the mechanics of the swing itself, but it has the tools necessary to impact the baseball. All this, coupled with the fact Williams has been up to 95 on the mound with a good slider. That arm talent translates onto the dirt, where his quick, twitchy actions suggest he can stick at the position.
The Rays turn these kinds of guys into Top 100 prospects overnight it seems. The obvious parallel is Brendan McKay, though we’re unsure if Williams will actually remain a pitcher at all. There’s a laundry list of young infielders who have come through the Rays system and turned themselves into premier talents. Wander Franco, Vidal Brujan, Greg Jones, Xavier Edwards, and Taylor Walls immediately come to mind, though Williams is a switch-hitter like many of his contemporaries. If there’s one team we trust to optimize the San Diego product, it’s the Rays. Cooper Kinney, their Competitive Balance A pick, is another fine candidate for this distinction.