The Best College Pitchers in the 2021 MLB Draft Based on Data Alone

There’s a lot more to scouting than raw counting stats and body projection. Identifying what a player could become, in a lot of ways, is hidden inside the data. How hard does a player hit the ball? How often does he expand the zone? What sort of bat speed can the body product, coupled with where do we see the body going in three of four years? That’s where TrackMan, Yakkertech and HawkEye come into play.

Ball-tracking systems have changed baseball immensely. Gone are the days of exclusively trusting our eyes and ears to determine who can really damage a baseball. These days, it’s qualifiable.

In 2020, several data-darlings were selected in a truncated five round draft despite not posting outlandish stat lines for their respective schools. NC State lefty Nick Swiney went in the second round to the Giants despite owning a fastball that never once touched 92 mph and sat more 87-90 most nights. The action Swiney could induce on a baseball was exemplary. He averaged close to 19.5 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) on his heater, a mark that would put him among the best in the big leagues. Even more impressive, his curveball averaged close to -19 inches of IVB. That’s nearly three feet of separation between the two pitches. Even more remarkable, Swiney’s changeup may be his best pitch.

To a lesser degree, former Dallas Baptist righty Burl Carraway can fill up the TrackMan as well. Despite concerns he’d be a reliever immediately upon entering pro ball, Carraway’s pure stuff was just too good for the Cubs to pass up in the second round. Carraway comes at hitters from an unorthodox over-the-top arm slot that allows his fastball to play super-vertical. He averaged over 20.5 inches of IVB; absolutely elite riding action. Couple that with a curveball that regularly produced -20 IVB and you’re talking about one of the most imposing 1-2 punch combos in college baseball.

2021 has some more guys that really grade out well in terms of the data. For this exercise, I’ve focused on guys that aren’t household names. Think of it as a pseudo-sleeper picks piece. These are some guys that you may not know on draft day, but could surprise in terms of production right out of the gates.

Dom Hamel

We’ll kick things off with another Dallas Baptist arm as Head Coach Dan Heefner and Pitching Coach Micah Posey have a way about turning arms into weekend weaponry.

Hamel hasn’t been a dominant starter in his time with Patriots, posting a 4.28 ERA over 111.1 collegiate innings. But that doesn’t mean evaluators haven’t seen things they love. His 73 percent in-zone contact rate (27 percent whiff rate in-zone) is very, very strong. Overall, 33 percent of Hamel’s induced swings have resulted in whiffs. That’s very good.

As far as the pitch design goes, it’s sublime. Hamel’s been up to 95 this year, though he sits in the low 90s. The fastball averaged 19.3 inches of IVB this year, while the curveball averaged close to -19 inches of IVB. Hamel doesn’t kill lift on his changeup too well, but the 15 inches of horizontal break on the pitch suggests it could be a very good weapon against lefty bats. The slider, meanwhile, has very good depth and sweeping action against righty bats. Hamel was able to induce anywhere between 2700 and 2900 RPMs on his breaking balls in 2021, a figure that should lend well toward future pitch design inside a professional development system.

Robert Gasser

It’s not often the University of Houston produces a premier draft-eligible arm, but Gasser certainly has the looks of one. Unlike Hamel, Gasser posted impressive ERA and WHIP figures in 2021; 2.63 and 1.07 respectively. But again, this was never about the back of a baseball card.

A southpaw, Gasser immediately gets high marks for his uncomfortably flat -4.5° approach angle. This should allow his low 90s fastball to play up nicely at the top of the zone. He only gets 16.2 inches of IVB on his fastball, a tick above average, so commanding the pitch will be important. But Gasser doesn’t need to rely on his fastball as much as others. He’s got a full ammo box of weapons to play with.

Aside from the fastball, Gasser also throws a sinker, a cutter, a slider, a changeup and a sweeping curveball. The cambio is particularly impressive, landing in the zone with 11 inches of vertical separation off the fastball. Gasser only gets 4 mph of separation between the two pitches, but with that sort of vertical discrepancy, it ends up being a positive as the tunneling characteristics really shine with late action on both pitches. They essentially mirror each other for 48 feet. The changeup also gets elite horizontal fading action, boring in on lefties close to 17.5 inches. It’s got similar shape to Dustin May’s sinker.

The big, sweeping curveball is a legitimate weapon as well. bending away from lefty bats with over 16 inches of horizontal break. You can now imagine the changeup/curveball combo out of the hand. Both may start middle-middle, but both will end up out of the strike zone. There’s three feet of horizontal separation there.

The biggest step forward for Gasser in pro ball will be learning how to pitch. He throws plenty of strikes, and is in the zone enough of the time, but he doesn’t induce a lot of swing-and-miss. As he continues to work on his pitch-ability, sequencing and cadences to different hitters, the ceiling here is rather exciting.

Gavin Williams

If you had the chance to watch Williams pitch against Vanderbilt in the super regionals last week, you probably have a pretty good idea of just how electric his stuff is. Williams is in his 3rd draft-eligible year, but he’s seen an enormous leap in command and durability this season.

Unlike years past, Williams threw strikes 66 percent of the time this season. His 43 percent in-zone percentage is good, not great, but an definitive improvement from where he’s been. Gone are the days where most evaluators believe he’s a reliever at the next level.

The pure stuff is unreal. Williams touched 99 this season with an average IVB on the fastball exceeding 20 inches. He coupled that with a huge curveball that spun into -20.3 inches of IVB. As if that wasn’t impressive enough, the curveball was thrown really hard, averaging over 78 mph this season. 40.5 inches of separation between the two pitches, both of which are being thrown hard with intent. That’s a nasty 1-2 punch.

But that’s the tip of the iceberg on Williams. It’s a really good changeup too, featuring 17.3 inches of fade into righties’ wrists. The gyro-slider is not joke either. He does a great job killing lift on the pitch. At 88 mph, it’s shaped like a fastball out of the hand, but ends up 15 inches lower than his heater. It’s big league stuff.

Williams possesses a huge four-pitch mix. If he stays in the strike zone like he did in 2021, and more importantly stays healthy, he has the potential to be the best pitcher to come out of the 2021 draft class. Plain and simple.