There’s a lot more to scouting than raw counting stats and body projection. Identifying what a player could become, in a lot of ways, is hidden inside the data. How hard does a player hit the ball? How often does he expand the zone? What sort of bat speed can the body product, coupled with where do we see the body going in three of four years? That’s where TrackMan, Yakkertech and HawkEye come into play.
Ball-tracking systems have changed baseball immensely. Gone are the days of exclusively trusting our eyes and ears to determine who can really damage a baseball. These days, it’s qualifiable.
In 2020, several data-darlings were selected in a truncated five round draft despite not posting outlandish stat lines for their respective schools. Cincinnati outfielder Joey Wiemer never hit over .266 in three years with the Wildcats. Regardless, he was selected in the fourth round by the Milwaukee Brewers? Why, you ask? Wiemer ranked second in all of college baseball last year with a max exit velocity of 113.8. His 95.9 mph average exit velocity ranked 27th out of 839 represented hitters. It also didn’t hurt he was up to 97 on the mound and that arm strength translated to his corner outfield spot. Regardless, the Brewers knew he was a project and took that risk.
To a lesser degree, former Arkansas shortstop Casey Martin can fill up a TrackMan system as well. Despite his diminutive frame, Martin hit a ball 109 mph in 2020 and averaged almost 97 mph on his batted balls. He also sported a super-charged average launch angle of 17.3 degrees. These numbers are all loud as hell, though his strikeouts and chase rate pushed him into the third round. Still, had he not hit the ball as hard as he did in 2020, there stands a chance he goes unselected entirely.
2021 has some more guys that really grade out well in terms of the data. For this exercise, I’ve focused on guys that aren’t household names. Think of it as a pseudo-sleeper picks piece. These are some guys that you may not know on draft day, but could surprise in terms of production right out of the gates.
Trey Sweeney
The most famous name on this list, Sweeney is projected to go in the first two rounds of July’s draft, and for good reason. If the counting stats weren’t already strong enough (.387/.505/.723, 14 homers, 46 walks and just 24 strike outs), his zone recognitions and batted ball data is among the best in the entire class.
Sweeney’s max exit velocity in 2021 was 109.3 mph. That ranks in the 97th percentile of all college hitters who registered batted-ball events in TrackMan fitted fields. His average exit velocity of 100.6 mph is even more impressive, ranking in the Top 40 for all hitters, good for the 98th percentile.
He hits the ball hard, but it’s the pitches Sweeney doesn’t swing at that really boost his profile for me. His whiff rate, swings in which no contact is made, sits at just 13 percent. That is incredibly strong and would rank among the best of any hitter in the country. His 16 percent chase rate, swings at pitches outside of the zone, is also among the best in his class. That’s especially impressive for a guy of his archetype; a slugger. Sweeney also only swings at just 36 percent of pitches he sees. Some of all this can be chalked up to playing in a smaller conference that lacks premier arms, but the point stands. Sweeney absolutely dominated his competition all season.
Matheu Nelson
Florida State’s star catcher, Nelson is another name likely to get popped off the board in the first three rounds. He’s a power-over-hit slugger with big raw power in a shorter, thicker frame. Nelson might not stick behind the plate as a pro, but it might not matter as the bat should be the carrying tool.
Where Sweeney draws incredibly high marks for his pure exit velocities and zone recognition, Nelson’s barrel control and natural loft are his calling card.
The quality of contact created by Nelson is exquisite. His 61 percent line drive percentage ranks among the top of the class. Even more impressive, 39 percent of his balls in play exceeded 95 mph and had a launch angle of 10 to 30 degrees. In the big leagues, this is referred to as a “Barrel”. Even when he wasn’t ‘launching’ the ball, 52 percent of Nelson’s balls in play exceeded 95 mph. The result was 23 homers this season, one of the best marks in all of college baseball.
There’s clearly a pretty good feel for lifting and driving the baseball here. His approach is fairly average, if not a tick below, but if Nelson can routinely hit the ball hard when he gets a pitch to do damage on, he’ll do just fine at the next level, especially in this meta.
John Behrends
Undoubtedly the most obscure name on this list, the Belmont outfielder gets overshadowed by his Power 5 conference peers, but he packs a punch. Behrends hit a ball 111.6 mph this season and averaged 96.6 mph on his balls in play in 2021. Both rank among the best in college baseball.
Behrends hits the ball incredibly hard. When he makes contact, it’s absolutely blistered. 56 percent of his balls in play this season exceeded 95 mph. 44 percent of Behrends balls in play were launched in that 10-degree to 30-degree window. Like Nelson, the 6-foot-2, 205 pound outfielder has a natural feel for lifting and driving the baseball with authority.
Put simply, there just aren’t many hitters in the country that can claim these sorts of numbers. They’re exceptional.
Behrends slashed .332/.444/.554 in 2021 with 8 homers and 13 stolen bases. He’d add 15 doubles and 2 triples for good measure. He presents in interesting blend of speed and power, something that can be difficult to find. That said, Behrends will need to cut down on his strikeouts at the next level to find sustained success.
We’ll dive into college pitchers next week