2 days to go until the 2021 MLB Draft. Crunch time. We’re getting close…
This is it. Our final mock draft for the 2021 MLB Draft cycle. Surely, more information will pour in between now and Sunday, but at the risk of getting too granular, and not obsessing over getting every little bit of information right, this is where we’ll land.
Some of these picks were made at the direction and insight of folks inside big league scouting organizations, and some were not. But with mere days in front of us before the 2021 MLB Draft, you can be sure teams are getting a better idea of their targets come July 11.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake
It’s a money game. That should come as no surprise. The Pirates, like most teams at the top, are looking to cut a deal in the hopes of saving money for rounds 2, 3, 4 and beyond. Mayer might not only present the best deal, but he may be the best prospect in the class regardless. It’s a premier body with long levers and fluid actions in every aspect of his game. We project Mayer a potential plus hitter with plus power at the next level -- a .280/25-homer type of hitter. Maybe projects a slightly above average defender at shortstop where his quiet actions and ability to glide should make for one of the most sure-handed players at his position. He doesn’t have the burst of explosiveness to suggest he’ll make the highlight reel play to his right with regularity, but it might not matter considering everything else will be gobbled up. We think Mayer projects into something similar to Xander Bogaerts, a 60+ role guy who glues together a lineup in the 3 or 4 hole of a very good lineup. The Pirates are surely exploring what deals with Jordan Lawlar, Henry Davis and Kahlil Watson look like here too. Curiously, they also had Sal Frelick in for a workout this week.
2. Texas Rangers
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
There’s growing sentiment among scouts and evaluators that Leiter and the Rangers may eventually end up a pair. Rangers’ brass Chris Young and Skip Fagg are said to be enamored by Leiter and his meta-suited fastball. It’s a profile that would play at the big league level almost immediately, and the Rangers have given no indication they intend on tearing anything down. The Rangers have been connected to Jordan Lawlar, Henry Davis and Kahlil Watson with this pick as well.
3. Detroit Tigers
Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow
We’ve heard the Tigers connected to any numbers of players here, but ultimately, we’re going to land on the Tigers selecting the most famous prep in the class. House has been a divisive prospect at times during this cycle, but he might be the best athlete at the top of the draft, and his physical tools speak for themselves. House has superstar potential if the hit tool reaches its ceiling. He’s a shortstop now, and we believe he can stick there. At worst, he’s a plus defender at third base. Al Avila and the Tigers have been connected Jack Leiter, Jackson Jobe and Marcelo Mayer here as well.
4. Boston Red Sox
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
At this point, based on our sources, the Red Sox are heavily leaning toward a college arm with the 4th pick in the draft, and that selection process is purportedly down to Leiter and his Vandy Boy teammate Rocker. The 6-foot-5-inch ace should be a quick mover through the Red Sox system and could debut as early as 2022 if everything clicks. Many expect Rocker to be shutdown this season due to his high workload this season. Rocker has the talent to start next season at AA if Chaim Bloom and Co.™ are satisfied with his changeup in the spring.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Henry Davis, C, Louisville
The existence of Adley Rutschman simply doesn’t matter. Henry Davis is the best college hitter in this class and Baltimore will find a way to get him in the lineup when he’s ready. Davis has the athleticism to handle a corner outfield spot, as well as first base to get the bat in the lineup. The Orioles do like Sal Frelick and Colton Cowser here, but all signs point to a college bat.
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (HS)
The Diamondbacks have had Watson circled on the board for quite some time, and some believe he’s the top player overall on their board. Watson is a dynamic up-the-middle bat who profiles similarly to the Marlins stud shortstop Jazz Chisholm. If Watson finds himself off the board to Texas, Arizona could pivot to Kumar Rocker here.
7. Kansas City Royals
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Dallas Jesuit
If Lawlar doesn’t go no. 2 overall, there’s rumbling he could fall to the 7 or 8 spot. The Royals like Will Taylor and Harry Ford quite a bit here, and Kumar Rocker and Henry Davis remain serious options if they’re available as well. The question here will be whether Lawlar will sign for no. 7 slot, or whether the Royals (or any team after this point) will splurge to bring him on board.
8. Colorado Rockies
Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land
The Rockies are said to be enamored with House, but Montgomery doesn’t lag far behind. Built from the same cloth as a guy like Jo Adell, Montgomery is flush with tools and upside. It may be the best superstar potential in the class. In this scenario, we have the Rockies going for ceiling, though they’ve been connected to several hitters as well, most notably Colton Cowser and Matt McLain. Colorado remains a dark horse for Jordan Lawlar.
9. Los Angeles Angels
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall
Jobe has legitimate top three buzz, so watching him fall to the Angels would be music to Perry Minasian and Co.™ ears. The best high school arm in the class, and arguably the best in a few years, Jobe has a double-plus slider and a plus fastball to go with it. He’s got feel for a changeup that flashes solid average. It’s a hyper-athletic build with a starting pitcher profile. The Angels have been heavily involved with Will Taylor and Harry Ford here, and it wouldn’t shock us to see the team go college pitching here either.
10. New York Mets
Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
The Mets have really circled college bats in this class. McLain not only fits a system need, but this is about where he makes sense to come off the board. He may move to centerfield if added. Many believe he’s a future above average hitter with below average power. He’s a plus, maybe double-plus runner who will undoubtedly add value on the base paths. Some evaluators see a little Garrett Hampson in McLain with a slightly better hit tool. Others have mentioned David Fletcher as a comp. Sam Houston State outfielder Colton Cowser and Boston College outfielder Sal Frelick are two other bats to watch for here.
11. Washington Nationals
Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
If Mike Rizzo were to build a pitcher in a lab, he might look something like Ty Madden. A big, tall, physical, athletic righty with a big conference track record. The Nationals have gone this route over and over. In this scenario, Madden joins Cade Cavalli and Cole Henry and a peg in the Nationals future big league rotation. The team has also been heavily connected to Mississippi State righty Will Bednar, as well as Sam Bachman, Gunnar Hoglund and Kumar Rocker. In the slim chance Jordan Lawlar is still on the board here, the Nationals might break the bank to make it work.
12. Seattle Mariners
Harry Ford, C, North Cobb
The Mariners have been in on Harry Ford from early on this spring. The organization loves the bat and the explosive, twitchy ability on the field. Ford doesn’t have to stick behind the plate at the next level. In fact, the club could move him to second base, third base, or even centerfield where all of his athletic traits will play way up. Ford’s offensive ceiling is substantial with most evaluators slapping at least above average hit and power grades on his game. He’s a plus runner with a plus arm. Ford has the clay to become a 5-tool player and his bat should be the ultimate determinant on how quickly he moves up the ladder. The smoke and mirrors rumors of a college bat are loud with the Mariners, but ultimately we think they go a different direction this year.
13. Philadelphia Phillies
Colton Cowser, Outfielder, Sam Houston State
The Phillies have been linked to a myriad of players in this class but we think the buck stops with Cowser. An above average hitter with a potential average power tool, Cowser’s game profiles similarly to Michael Saunders. There’s a decent shot he can stick in centerfield, though the whole package plays in any of the three outfield spots.
14. San Francisco Giants
Sal Frelick, Outfielder, Boston College
The Giants would absolutely love Frelick to land in their lap at 14. Such a spacious outfield and a short-porch in right field, Frelick fits Oracle Park to a T. The Boston College speedster certainly fits all the makeup credentials valued by San Francisco, a team who likes to select up-the-middle performers who will help grow their ultra-competitive culture. Frelick is a gritty kid with a competitive streak that you can’t find everywhere. The team has been linked to any number of players here and seem to be sitting in a wait-and-see mode.
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
The Brewers have been prolific at developing right-handed arms over the past few years, so the reluctancy to draft any of them really surprises us. There was a time where Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta were all deemed potential relievers. Those days are gone and all three are front-of-the-rotation talents. With such roaring success, Milwaukee should target pitchers with riding fastballs and a dynamic breaking ball. That’s Bednar to a T. A show-time performer, Bednar is a changeup away from being a dynamic rotation piece at the next level. Should Milwaukee land him at 15, there’s a pretty reasonable chance he’s pitching behind their three-headed monster as early as 2023.
16. Miami Marlins
Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork
Taylor has made a late charge with the Marlins and could factor in here at 16 if he’s still on the board. He’s got plenty of suitors in the top ten, and even more teams in the 20s that desire him. Taylor is one of the more polarizing players in the first round. There are supervisors who covet him as the number one player in this entire class.
17. Cincinnati Reds
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
The Reds have a host of college pitchers circled here, and Wicks is among that group. Michael McGreevy and Will Bednar both are sought here as well. Wicks is the best lefty in the class with a double-plus changeup, a sneaky-good slider and a fastball that presents deception and some riding characteristics. The Reds have college arms as a point of emphasis this cycle and it starts with Wicks.
18. St. Louis Cardinals
Gunnar Hoglund, LHP, Ole Miss
Once again, the Cardinals get the luxury of sitting back and waiting to see who falls into their lap. Hoglund is a top ten talent who’s arm injury in 2021 cost him big money and a higher draft slot. Still, he’ll be available at some point in 2022. Given his profile of command-over-stuff and SEC track record, the Cardinals are getting a starting pitcher here who should be ready to contribute to their big league rotation by 2024 at the very latest.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace
The connection between the Jays and Solometo continues to get louder and louder. There are folks close to the prep southpaw who believe, if he makes it this far, it’s as good as gold. That said, a lot can change and there could always been surprises that fall into the lap of the Great White North. Austin Martin tumbled to Toronto in 2020. That sort of thing could happen again this year.
20. New York Yankees
Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois
The Yankees seem to be honing in on a number of college bats here. Sweeney has had workouts with the team and really impressed in those outings. He presents some of the best batted-ball data in the class, and represents one of the best college bats available. The Yankees chased data with the selection of Austin Wells in 2020, and we believe they’ll go Sweeney here. ECU 2B Connor Norby is one to watch here, as it Wright State 2B Tyler Black and Florida State catcher Mat Nelson. With Harry Ford still on the board, he may be a dark horse.
21. Chicago Cubs
Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll
The Cubs have been a difficult team to track down this cycle, but most smoke has the team attached to a high-upside high school player. Anthony Solometo and Maxwell Muncy have been popular connections, as has Bubba Chandler. Allen’s game went to a new level this spring as he’s become way more physical at the plate.
22. Chicago White Sox
Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge
The White Sox have been all over Montgomery for several months now, and in this situation, he falls into their laps at pick 22. Will Bednar is another option here should he fall this far. There’s a laundry list of prep infielders that have been linked to Chicago should both of these player be off the board.
23. Cleveland Indians
Michael McGreevy, RHP, Santa Barbara
McGreevy is a guy who’s been flying up boards of late and we think this is the floor. He’s a four-pitch command arm with as good a bet as anyone to stick in a rotation at the next level. McGreevy has some optimization in front of him, but Cleveland has a track record of guiding starters to their ceiling. Chase Petty, Peyton Stovall and Bubba Chandler have all been mentioned here.
24. Atlanta Braves
Spencer Schwellenbach, SS/RHP, Nebraska
The Braves seem to have had Schwellebach circled for a few weeks now. They may be trying to push the Cornhusker Swiss Army Knife to their pick in the second round, but we don’t think he lasts that long. The Braves get their guy here. Atlanta has also been looking long and hard at Will Taylor and Lonnie White. This is also the area we expect Ky Bush and Gavin Williams to begin surfacing.
25. Oakland Athletics
Ky Bush, LHP, St. Marys
A local product, Bush fits the Athletics’ model of big, prototypical, athletic starting pitcher types with their early round picks. A four-pitch lefty, Bush has two big breaking balls and a changeup that’s been one of his primary punch out offerings this season. Bush has been up to 97, though he ordinarily sits 92-94.
26. Minnesota Twins
Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Few players have overcome this level of swing and miss at the professional level. Luckily for Fabian, he has a set of supporting skills that give him a shot to project as an everyday regular. Minnesota targeted a college player with question marks late in the first last year and they do it again here. If Fabian is to land in the first round, this is a good starting point. Trey Sweeney is a name who’s received a lot of helium at this spot as well, as has South Alabama outfielder Ethan Wilson.
27. San Diego Padres
Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic
The late popping projection arm of this draft cycle. Mozzicato was way off the radar as recently as a few months ago, but the pitcher from the Connecticut prep ranks rose quickly. There have been rumors connecting San Diego to Mozzicato heavily and he seems like the kind of zag pick A.J. Preller is known for. His fastball sits high-80s to low-90s, but the jewel of his mix is a high-70s hammer curveball he uses to generate swings and misses. There’s a lot to dream on, and the signs of a go-to secondary to build around. That said, Mozzicato is getting a ton of buzz well before this pick.
28. Tampa Bay Rays
Bubba Chandler, SS/RHP, North Oconee
It’s merely a numbers game here. Nobody expected Chandler to fall this far, but a two-way prep with this kind of upside just screams Rays. They’ve been connected to a number of players here including Mat Nelson, Cooper Kinney, Joshua Baez and Connor Norby, so anybody wouldn’t surprise us here.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers
Peyton Stovall, 2B, Haughton
The Dodgers have been tied to a number of players including Gavin Williams, Jaden Hill and Mat Nelson here, but we think they go with old friend Peyton Stovall. The Haughton product was tied heavily to the Dodgers early in the spring, though those rumors had fizzled a bit. Whomever LA ends up with, we’re sure they’ll turn him into an all-star as they always seem to do.
30. Cincinnati Reds
Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami of Ohio
Bachman falls a bit in this mock. You’re talking about a guy with two huge double-plus pitches and a budding changeup. He’s a data-dream and the Reds covet players like that. They’ve got college pitching circled this year, and Bachman at 30 would be an enormous value, considering his top ten helium this spring. Durability question marks are pretty much the only thing holding the RedHawk from going much higher in the draft.
31. Miami Marlins
Joe Mack, Catcher, Williamsville East
The Marlins value the position of catcher and Mack falling into the comp round here would be a big win. Mack didn’t have the loudest spring, but the swing is very real. He projects at least at average hitter with substantial raw power for an up-the-middle position. Mack has a plus arm and possesses all the traits necessary to stick behind the plate. Doug Nikhazy certainly makes some sense here, as do players like Mat Nelson, Connor Norby and Andrew Painter.
32. Detroit Tigers
Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
The Tigers sure haven’t been shy about drafting big conference arms in recent years and Cusick certainly fits that bill. He’s a big, tall, imposing body with upper 90s stuff and a 12-6 bender that more often than not melts into a 11-5 shape. There’s still plenty of optimization to be had in his profile. Cusick also lacks a third pitch, though he’s thrown a cutter in the past and offered a changeup at times in 2021. The latter is currently below average. There’s something akin to a Tyler Glasnow in Cusick, though he’s got development in front of him in terms of command, pitch design and sequencing to reach that sort of value on the bump. Detroit would be happy to see Cusick fall this far. Look for the team to seek big conference, performer type arms here (Nikhazy, Mace, Andrew Abbott, Dylan Smith),
33. Milwaukee Brewers
Doug Nikhazy, LHP, Ole Miss
The Brewers have not been shy about their pursuit of college pitching in this class and Nikhazy is a tantalizing option. He’s about as good as it gets in terms of data. The fastball is generally 89-91, but he’s been up to 94 this year and there are signs more velo could come. The curveball is a huge bender, and could be thrown a little harder, but as is it’s above average at worst. He mixes in a deceptive, firm slider, as well as a changeup that he employs sparingly. Others to watch for here include hard-throwing righty types like Sean Burke, Gavin Williams, Jaden Hill, or maybe even Dylan Smith.
34. Tampa Bay Rays
Andrew Painter, RHP, Cavalry Christian
Passing up Andrew Painter becomes too difficult for the Rays at pick no. 35. There’s a host of players here that make sense for Tampa, but plucking a 6-foot-7 inch righty out of their backyard certainly fits the bill. Others in play here include a myriad of preps infielders like Cooper Kinney, as well as well as college arms like Nikhazy, Abbott, and Bush.
35. Cincinnati Reds
Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina
The Reds have college pitching circled this year and Williams at the end of the first round is quite a value. For our money, it’s two plus breaking balls with a high-90s fastball and a changeup that’s he’s shown is very usable. His age and lack of track record are limiting his ceiling, but Williams has the chance to move quickly through the Reds system. Doug Nikhazy makes a lot of sense here too.
36. Minnesota Twins
Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor (HS)
Twins brass have been circling the wagons on Kinney of late and his name has surged in draft circles elsewhere. With their second pick in the draft, it wouldn’t surprise us to see Minnesota reach for a lefty prep infielder with a big bat… similar to their Keoni Cavaco pick from a few years prior. Kinney fits at a lot of spots in the competitive balance round and we tend to think this is the floor. If Kinney is not here, look for a college bat like Nelson, Sweeney or Wilson.