Week four of the weekly mailbag diving into your questions and providing what information we know. While I (@JoeDoyleMiLB) will be the one writing the piece, this is always a team effort. We’ll all see these questions and provide what insight we can. We all have different industry connections and different regional access, so I’ll be leaning on my team of Geoff (@ProspectJesus), Tyler (@TylerJennings24) and Ian (@FlaSmitty) for their expertise as well.
I always like this question. Every year there seems to be a guy or two with such unique stuff, it plays absolutely immediately.
In this class, I don’t think there’s a ton of options, but if I were to point to one name to watch, it would probably have to be Miami (Ohio) University righty Sam Bachman. Now let’s be clear, whoever drafts Bachman will want to develop him as a starter. But if the stuff is so good right now, he may get a cup of coffee in September. The cards are stacked against that happening, but he’s a better shot than most.
Bachman comes at hitters with a double-plus fastball up to 101 mph, sitting 96-99, sometimes higher, every single night out. He couples that with a slider that can break off 70 grades as well, usually in the low 90s. Bachman has a changeup too, but it lags behind the other two offerings. It’s easy, effortless velo coming from a longer, short-arm delivery. If there’s stuff that’ll play immediately out of a big league bullpen, it’s Bachman’s.
Worth nothing, Bachman missed three weeks this season with some shoulder soreness, but that seems to have been cleaned up. If he stays healthy the rest of the way and logs consistent innings, there stands a pretty good chance he’s off the board in the top-half of the first round.
You’d be hard-pressed to find many guys with louder summers than James Wood had in 2020. The physicality, the bat-to-ball skills, the usable power… Wood had it all on display and captivated onlookers.
This spring hasn’t been quite so noteworthy. The approach and hit tool shown last summer have been more depressed early on. In 23 games, Wood is hitting .254 with a strikeout rate close to 30 percent. He’s hit just 2 homers in 84 plate appearances. It’s not all bad for Wood. He’s running a walk rate over 27 percent as well. That said, you’d like to see the offensive impact from last summer show in games after what he did last year.
Wood’s season is winding down, so he’ll need to improve on the spring showcase circuit if he’s to resurface as a top-of-the-draft bat. That said, it’s still hard to ignore the frame, physicality and pure tools Wood possesses.
We talked about this quite on bit on this weeks podcast, so I’d encourage you to give that a listen if you’d like more info, but I can certainly provide some spark notes for you.
Long story short, yes, Kumar Rocker’s velocity dip is concerning, but we’re not ringing any alarm bells just yet. Rocker is a guy that’s been 94-97 for much of his Vanderbilt career, up to 99. Over the last handful of games, the fastball is averaging just 90.8 mph. All this after throwing close to 120 pitches in a start in the middle of March. I don’t think his velocity struggles of late are indicative of the fastball we’ve seen over the past three seasons. We’re giving him another few weeks before the degradation of his arm narrative needs to be examined.
Rocker has always had a good, not great fastball. It’s got good movement, but his command and feel for the pitch have never been a strength. If we’re ultimately talking about a guy with a low-90s fastball, more often sitting in the 50- to 55-grade, it’s no longer a slam dunk at the top of the draft. You really open the door for whether Gunnar Hoglund or someone like Bachman is the better option at that point.
Lehigh righty Mason Black! Big show favorite of ours! We stan Mason on this site.
Black has mowed down hitters all season and done well for himself in the eyes of scouts. He’s currently running a 1.98 ERA with 61 strikeouts and just 12 walks in 41.1 innings. Maybe more importantly, Black shortened his arm stroke quite a bit, curing some concerns scouts had as to whether he could stick in a rotation and throw enough quality strikes. The mid-to-high 90s fastball has been there this season, though the slider hasn’t been quite the plus offering many were anticipating.
Add it all up we think Black is in play toward the back-half of the first round and into the second round. He’s got a good body, projectable stuff, a three-pitch mix and throws strikes. That’s usually a good bet to pop early.
Depends on your definition of a sleeper. We answer the question of sleepers in the 2nd to 5th round range all the time, so for this exercise, let’s go really deep. How about a few names that could get popped after the 10th round that I really like?
I’ll start with a local area prospect for me. Third baseman Antonio (A.J.) Guerrero has really started piquing the interest of folks in the Pacific Northwest. At 6-foot, 185 pounds, Guerrero makes his money with really solid bat-to-ball skills and a track record of success against big velo arms. He’s currently a little position-less due to fringy athleticism, but if he can find a home at 2nd or 3rd with development, he maybe a fun bat to dream on late in the draft.
Another sleeper I like is catcher Anthony Migliaccio out of Wyandotta, Michigan. A Vanderbilt commit, Migliaccio is a 6-foot-1, 200 pound backstop with impressive athleticism behind the plate and a line-drive oriented swing. There’s plenty of bat speed present as a switch-hitter too. He runs really well and offers an above average arm behind the plate. Vandy Boys snuck a cold weather catcher out of Maryland last year by the name of Jack Bulger, and he’s tearing the cover off the ball this season. My guess is they don’t get that luxury this time around.
As for the rest of the draft team, Ian really likes Blake Klassen, a lefty bat out of Eastern Oklahoma State College. Klassen is having a huge year for the Mountaineers, slashing .406/.520/.906 with 11 dingers. He’s likely a first baseman or left field/DH at the next level.
Geoff really likes NC State lefty Evan Justice. At 6-foot-4, 205 pounds, Justice comes at batters in an extremely uncomfortable move to the plate. He’s all arms, dialing it up into the high-90s with a slider as well. He profiles as a reliever, and could move quick after the draft.
My stance here is less rounds is good for nobody.
At the end of the day, minor league contraction and the disassociation of 42 minor league teams from Big League farm systems have made 40 rounds obsolete. There’s simply not enough roster spots in an organization to make 40 rounds make sense anymore. So while it’s marginally good for pocketbooks, it’s bad for amateur ballplayers, it’s bad for area scouts, it’s bad for college baseball. We’ll all get used to it in no time I’m sure, but in the immediacy, it’s frustrating.