2021 MLB Draft Stock Watch - Week 8

As we dive deeper into the college baseball season, some common names are beginning to buoy their way to the surface as prime performers. It’s been eight weeks. The road is long and winding ahead. We’re approaching the half-way mark. Much can change. And it will. Conference is in full-force. It’s go time. Week eight provided a few familiar names, and a few less-so to keep an eye on moving forward…

Stock Rising…

PITCHERS

Matt Mikulski, LHP, Fordham

7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 16 K

Those who follow college baseball will certainly be familiar with Mikulski, a 5th year senior for the Fordham Rams. Mikulski has been a consistent competitor throughout his college career, and was a legit name in the 2020 MLB Draft, but after a winter of hard work, the stuff and the mechanics have Mikulski a target near the top of the draft.

There’s a ton to like about the whole package. At 6-foot-4, 205 pounds, Mikulski has the pro body built for innings. He’s got a three-pitch mix including a fastball that sits 93-96, touching 98. The breaking ball is a swing-and-miss pitch and he’s shown the ability to turn over a good changeup too. Mikulski really shortened up his arm action going into 2021. Scouts now think he has a chance to start.

Mikulski will be 22.5 years old for this draft, so he doesn’t have the leverage other arms do, much like Landon Knack from a year ago. In 37.2 innings, Mikulski is running a 0.96 ERA with an insane 68 strikeouts and just 13 walks. He’s been utterly dominant.

Ben Casparius, RHP, Connecticut

7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 15 K

Casparius has been a rock-solid arm all year and that was on full display this week as he really dismantled Georgetown for seven innings. Whenever the Hoyas got a guy on base, Casparius seemed to punch out anybody who followed.

At 6-feet, 200 pounds, Casparius is a powder-keg arm with a mean competitive streak about him on the mound. He’s a fiery competitor with a low-to-mid 90s fastball that he can cut or run in on righty bats. He mixes in a really tightly wound slider that he’s shown solid command for, as well as a changeup that can be inconsistent, but has been dangerous against lefty bats. The cambio has good deception and separation off the heater.

Casparius was a sleeper headed into the 2021 season, but those who had seen him knew there was big potential in the whole package. Over 51.1 innings, the Husky has 70 punch outs and just 22 walks to his name. He’s posted a 2.98 ERA and figures to be in play toward the front-half of the 2021 draft.

Jonathan Fincher, LHP, Louisiana Tech

9 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K

Fincher was draft-eligible in 2020, but didn’t post the numbers necessary to get selected, especially coming from a smaller conference. That’s changed in 2021, as evidenced by his dominant performance against Rice this weekend.

Fincher is a burly, big-bodied lefty with a three pitch mix he deploys well against both-handed batters. He’s worked on his command during his time at LA Tech, now to the point it’s a definitive carrying tool. The fastball is a high-80s offering with arm-side run. He’s got a low-spin, loopy curveball that he deploys at the bottom of the zone really well. His. changeup is a solid offering in the low 80s to get batters off the heat.

Over 8 starts and 53.1 innings, Fincher has walked a cheeky 9 batters this season. He’s only got 47 strikeouts, but that was never going to be his game from the get-go. His 1.35 ERA is a career-best, but not by much. Fincher owns a 2.06 ERA for his career at LA Tech. He’s as steady as they come.

  • Other Notables: Jack Leiter (Vanderbilt), Mack Anglin (Clemson) , Trenton Denholm (UC Irvine), Ryan Webb (Georgia), Tyler Thornton (Arizona State), Russell Smith (TCU), Mason Montgomery (Texas Tech) , Kevin Abel (Oregon State), Chase Silseth (Arizona), Brendan Beck (Stanford)

HITTERS

RILEY TIROTTA, 3B, DAYTON

7 FOR 18 (.389/.522/1.056) 4 HR, 12 RBI, 4 BB, 2 SB, 3 K

Riley Tirotta entered 2021 as one of the sleeper college bats for this cycle and he’s really rounding into form of late. After hitting just .197 through his first 18 games, his average is up to .328 after going 25 for his last 51 (.490 average). Davidson took a heavy helping of that streak surrendering 7 hits to the South Bend native during their 4-game series this weekend, including 4 dingers.

There’s a lot to like about Tirotta as a pro prospect. It’s easily above average raw power, some throwing plus grades on it. He’s a definitive third baseman at the next level with above average run times and mobility scores, as well as a plus, maybe double-plus throwing arm. The hit tool remains the biggest question mark, though that seems to be rounding into form. Tirotta is a career .241 hitter at Dayton, so hitting for average this season would be a new development, but certainly not one scouts didn’t envision coming. The bat speed is there, and mechanically, there’s a lot to like about his swing.

In a year where college hitters are scuffling, Tirotta has a chance to take a big step forward on draft boards. He may be one of the top four or five college third baseman available in the draft, and after his last few weeks, has an up arrow next to his name. Through 33 games, Tirotta has ten homers and is currently running a walk-rate over 13-percent and a K-rate under 17-percent.

Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State

9 FOR 19 (.474/.615/1.106) 4 HR, 11 RBI, 6 BB, 2 SB, 2 K

You’d be hard-pressed to find a hitter hotter than Cowser is over the last three weeks. He accumulated his big week tally despite an 0 for 3 outing on Sunday. Cowser laid the wood to New Orleans all week and continued to pad his stats after a bumpy start to his season. At one point, Cowser had homered in 6 of seven games headed into Sunday.

Cowser is a polarizing prospect for big league scouts. Folks are split on what he will be at the big league level. The athleticism and foot speed is above average, but some wonder if that plays in centerfield. That said, some think he lacks the thump necessary for a corner role. His numbers on the year beg to differ. There’s been Michael Saunders comparisons thrown around. In any case, it’s a very good bat; a solid hit tool. He projects to be a big league regular at the next level.

Cowser is off to a scorching start this season despite his slow first couple weeks. He’s slashing .364/.500/.611 on the season with 12 homers and very healthy strikeout and walk rates. In a year plagued by a lackluster college hitter class, Cowser has a chance to go in the first round thanks to his mature approach, projection frame and tantalizing his tool.

Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State

7 FOR 17 (.412/.444/1.118), 3 HR, 3 2B, 11 RBI, BB, 5 K

Nelson is long overdue to find himself on this list considering the year he’s having. He’s been the catalyst in the Seminoles lineup all year. Not Robbie Martin, Not Elijah Cabell. Not Reese Albert. It’s been Nelson. He faced off against a really tough staff at Louisville and thumped.

There’s a lot to like about Nelson, first and foremost he’s a college catcher with a bat. He’s got an average throwing arm, but good fundamentals behind the plate, especially blocking. There’s some swing-and-miss to his game, but it’s a good body that projects to stay behind the plate and hit enough at the next level.

Nelson has been a bit a revelation this season after coming off a .250 average in 2020 with just one homer. Over 26 games this year, Nelson is hitting .333/453/.813 with 13 homers and 7 doubles. He’s running a 25.6% K-rate, but is walking almost 14-percent of his at-bats. He’ll likely be a popular name rounds 2-4. How he manages his strikeouts the rest of the way will likely dictate how high he can go.

Notables: Will Frizzell (Texas A&M), Ray Gil (Miami), Trent Touchet (Sam Houston State), Luca Tresh (NC State), Alex Binelas (Louisville), Bryson Worrell (East Carolina), Derek Smith (Bryant), Dan Bolt (Bradley), Jamal O’Guinn (USC), Tanner Allen (Mississippi State), Mike Antico (Texas), Justyn Henry-Malloy (Georgia Tech)