We’re now entering the sixth weekend of college baseball here in 2021. After a year in which we’ve saw a majority of the baseball world go on hiatus, it’s good to be back. For the first time in what seems like years, we’re getting some looks at top draft talents, and many early favorites have seen their stock dip dramatically. This has led to heavy conversation and at times over analyzation of cold and hot streaks, as well as any and everything in between.
Despite plenty to discuss, few players have attracted more scrutiny than Florida outfielder Jud Fabian. At one point in the process in the not too distant past, Fabian was the first position player off the board for many. Even for those low on him he was clearly the top college bat. But then the season started and Fabian began to swing and miss at a rate he hadn’t approached since his freshman season on campus. Which prompted the questions:
“Is this guy a real 1.1 candidate?” - Probably never was
“Can you really take a hitter in the first round with a 30 K%versus future accountants?” - Possibly, more on that later.
“Would you really invest $5 million on that?” - I’ve never spent $5 million on anything, but what’s the alternative?
So what happened? Was it all a mirage?
After all, this was a player that early enrolled at one of the nation’s top teams, started in the SEC, and starred in the Cape Cod League all before his 19th birthday.
So you’re probably asking what’s the slash line and is the approach that bad?
First part is easy, the production to this point is actually pretty good despite that elevated strikeout rate. Entering Friday’s contest he was hitting .289/.379/.627 with 8 home runs and a 12.6 BB%.
Your next question: how does this compare to his numbers over that glorious Cape Cod League combined with his COVID-shortened sophomore campaign?
Well, he hit .289/.362/.531 with 11 home runs, a 25.9 K%, and a 10 BB%. Wait… so most of Fabian’s numbers are better? Yup!
What about that approach Ralph, is it bad?
Well, no. Fabian struggles with a specific style and location of pitch and it’s fairly easy to pick up when watching. While I cannot publicly share the spray charts pertaining to Fabian’s approach, I can tell you, he has taken a lot of looking strikes on the fringes, and his swings and misses follow a very specific pattern. When looking at his swinging strikes you will see he whiffs predominantly in the upper quadrants and low and away.
Now let’s go further, what pitches in particular are giving him the most trouble? The result might surprise you.
Fastballs high and off speed on the outer half of the plate. In fact, 52% of Fabian’s whiffs have come against fastballs. Not great. Diving in a little deeper the location issues are obvious. But why? In a day in age where more pitchers are throwing elevated fastballs this seems like it might be a big problem, and frankly it is. But how big of an issue?
Well, what makes Jud a good power hitter might also be the culprit behind his struggles, case and point his steep bat path. Here’s a screen grab from a Fabian at bat versus Texas A&M star Bryce Miller. Notice the location of the fastball, and subsequently the location of the bat. Fabian struggles with the same issues many of today’s hitters at the major league level struggle with, how to combat the high fastball when your swing is designed to “elevate and celebrate”.
Well what about non-fastballs, how is Jud hitting them?
Actually, really well. Versus non fastballs Fabian is slashing .273/.319/.659 with 5 home runs and a 16% SwStr%. Meaning Jud’s damage has come mostly against breaking balls and off speed. To compare Fabian’s numbers versus fastballs (still really good) illustrate his struggles when contrasted with his breaking ball numbers, his slug is 60 points lower, and his swinging strike rate is higher (just barely) at 17%.
As explained earlier, steep attack angles giveth and steep attack angles taketh. The same thing that allows Fabian to mash breaking balls and really anything low in the zone is the same thing that causes his struggles versus elevated fastballs.
The lesson here is there’s a reason guys are attacking high, and it’s to combat hitters like Jud. That said, he’s still slashing .308/.438/.590 versus fastballs, and based on my extreme baseball knowledge, I’d define that as… good.
So to summarize, Fabian has a bat path that allows him to hit for power, but also creates some swing and miss versus pitches in a very particular spot of the zone. The question any player development executive must ask is, “Is this fixable?”. Unfortunately I don’t know if we have that answer. What I do know is Jud Fabian never stopped being good.