Week three of the weekly mailbag diving into your questions and providing what information we know. While I (@JoeDoyleMiLB) will be the one writing the piece, this is always a team effort. We’ll all see these questions and provide what insight we can. We all have different industry connections and different regional access, so I’ll be leaning on my team of Ralph (@ProspectJesus), Tyler (@TylerJennings24) and Ian (@FlaSmitty) for their expertise as well.
What a fascinating question to kick off with.
Like Arkansas shortstop Casey Martin from a year ago, Florida outfielder Jud Fabian has certainly turned into a bit of a divisive profile for evaluators. Like Martin, the tools are significant. You could make a reasonable argument Fabian has 70-grade raw power, is a plus runner, and profiles up the middle of the field. Martin, similarly, had some pillar tools in the 70-arm, 70-run and plus raw power. But both players have question marks on the hit tool.
The two players are very different profiles at the plate. Martin fell down draft board because not only was his striking out at an enormous clip (37% K-rate in 2020), he was expanding the zone to alarming levels. Martin would chase fastballs at his lips. Fabian on the other hand, doesn’t chase. He’s only got a 19% chase rate this season.
Fabian is currently running a 31% K-rate this season and owns a 29% K-rate for his college career. Either Fabian is a guess-hitter who is constantly whiffing through pitches in the zone, or he has some pretty significant holes in his swing (most notably at the top of the zone).
It should also be noted there were questions around whether Martin could stick at shortstop or whether he was going to have to moved to centerfield and learn a new position. Fabian already plays an above average centerfield. He projects to stick out there if he doesn’t outgrow the spot, at which time his offensive profile would still play really well in right field.
There’s probably very little chance Fabian falls outside of day one value for some team come July (Martin fell to pick no. 87). He’s an extremely talented player, but he needs to put the pieces together at the plate.
Good question here too. I’ve pretty publicly had Mayer closer to Lawlar on my draft board than I think a lot of others have.
If you’re making the argument for Mayer over Lawlar, I think you have to first start with the body. Mayer has a longer, leaner body than Lawlar that figures to add more muscle in the coming years. He’s an inch taller with longer arms and legs. That said, Mayer currently lacks the athleticism and physicality Lawlar has at the plate. If you believe in your player development system, and believe they can get the most physicality out of Mayer, he probably has a higher ceiling.
Mayer is also a lefty-bat which big league organizations prefer in terms of prep profile. I’m not sure if that really moves the needle too much as Lawlar is such a special, accomplished hitter in his own right.
For me, Mayer projects a 60-hitter with 60-game power. Lawlar, for me, projects a 70-hitter with 55+ game power.
Defensively, I’ve got Mayer eventually developing into a 70-grade defender at shortstop with Lawlar coming in a shade lower at 60-grade. Both figure to be dynamic defenders on the dirt with good arms who should stick at the position.
I really don’t think you can go wrong with either player. I like the projection in Mayer’s body a bit more than Lawlar’s, and I prefer his hands and actions on the dirt just a tick more. But if you asked me today, I’d still take Lawlar first. The hit tool and floor is just too good.
I’m of the opinion at this point, someone is going to give Bubba Chandler several million reasons to bypass football for the diamond. The kid really could be pretty special.
In this year, a down year in terms of college hitters, more teams may turn to high-upside preps early in the draft. Guys like Chandler, Jackson Jobe and Benny Montgomery may benefit as they’re truly special athletes. Teams may reach for ceiling more than ever in 2021.
The biggest question on Chandler may be whether he’s a pitcher or a hitter. On the mound, he’s been up to 94 with ultra-athletic actions and an incredibly quick arm. He looks every bit the type of guy that will be throwing 97 in due time. On the dirt, he’s a smooth defender at shortstop with quick hands and a very strong, accurate arm. Scouts are still out on how the bat projects, but it’s not a weakness.
If you’re asking me today, I think Chandler goes in the first round, probably in the 15-35 range, and signs with whomever selects him.
This is certainly a topic of conversation inside scouting circles. Frelick played middle infield coming up through high school, played shortstop this summer in the Future Collegiate Baseball League, and takes ground balls in pre-game warmups before a lot of Boston College games. If scouts want to see what he’s capable of on the dirt, he’s giving them every opportunity to make that evaluation.
In terms of Frelick vs. Matt McLain, it’s an interesting comparison. McLain’s bat gets most of the headlines in terms of draft question marks, but let’s not forget, not all teams are in on him as a shortstop. I know some teams like Frelick as a potential second baseman or utility rover at the next level.
Frelick’s bat might have the edge right now. He projects a plus hitter with average power and a 70-runner. McLain currently projects a plus hitter with 40-game power and is also a 60+ runner. If you’re drafting on bat alone, Frelick gets the nod.
I am so glad you brought up Smith because he looked better than I had ever seen him this week against Arkansas.
I like Smith a lot. He just missed our Top 400, but that will be changing on our next update. The fastball is up to 96 with a high-spin slider with sharp, deep, late bite, flashing plus. Interestingly, Smith spots his slider better arm-side than he does glove-side for me. He mixes in an average curveball with decent depth that’s flashed better than that in the past.
Smith is an athletic guy on the mound who’s really improved his control this season and is showing signs he could start at the next level. He’s issuing less free passes and generating more swing-and-miss than in years past. There’s legitimate helium on Smith’s name, and if he can start throwing better quality strikes with the fastball, he could see his name rise even higher.