It’s not easy to sustain success as a mid-major program anywhere. It might be even harder in the heart of SEC country. Yet South Alabama has, by and large, remained at or near the top of the Sun Belt for the better part of 25 years. Anchored by a couple of the top college position player prospects in the 2021 class, the Jags looked primed for a return to regionals next spring.
Future Top Ten Pick?
The obvious headliner is leftfielder Ethan Wilson, whom Ralph Lifshitz and Joe Doyle have as the #16 player in the Prospects Live preliminary 2021 draft rankings. A left-handed hitter, Wilson generates huge bat speed with easy pull-side loft. There’s some effort in his swing, but he has enough feel for the barrel to keep his strikeout rate down.
“For Jaguars head coach Mark Calvi, it didn’t take long to realize how lucky the team was that Wilson had flown under the radar.”
Wilson’s not all that dissimilar from Heston Kjerstad, whom the Orioles selected second overall out of Arkansas last month. Kjerstad’s elite production came in the SEC, while Wilson (through no fault of his own) didn’t get a chance to compete day in and day out against the top pitchers in the country this summer thanks to the cancellation of the Cape Cod League. That probably prevents him from quite matching Kjerstad’s draft status, but he’s tracking like an obvious first-rounder with a shot to get into the top ten.
That’s a major leap from where he was just two years ago. Wilson wasn’t among Baseball America’s top 500 draft prospects out of high school. For Jaguars head coach Mark Calvi, it didn’t take long to realize how lucky the team was that Wilson had flown under the radar.
“First day,” Calvi chuckled. “As a freshman, he had the strength. He just stood out like a sore thumb. He’d hit balls into the trees in batting practice. He’d hit balls opposite field off the scoreboard. The ball sounds differently off his bat than most guys I’ve seen. It was very reminiscent of (Jordan) Patterson and (Travis) Swaggerty, some of the top five round draft picks we’ve had in the past.”
South Alabama’s Strong Track Record
Wilson’s something of an archetype the Jags target (although they rarely work out as well as he has). Calvi raves about his work ethic and his three-sport background, two qualities the head coach stresses he and his staff value highly in recruiting. South Alabama’s hardly the only program looking for multi-sport athletes with quality makeup, but they’ve had a higher hit rate than most at identifying potential late bloomers. That’s all the more important as a mid-major in the deep south, Calvi points out, since players who pop early in their high school careers are likely to quickly commit to a Power Five school.
Swaggerty was selected tenth overall in 2018 and is now one of the sport’s better prospects. Patterson (4th round), Ben Taylor (7th round) and Locke St. John (32nd round) all got to the big leagues. Matt Peacock (23rd round) has built an impressive minor-league resume in the Diamondbacks’ system and could soon join them. None of the mid-round players had much more than a cup of coffee at the highest level, but all except Peacock have thus far made it to the majors. Relative to where they were drafted, that alone is a win.
One of the Top 2021 College Shortstops
Junior shortstop Santi Montiel might be next in that line. His defensive actions and hands rank at or near the top in next year’s college class. Montiel’s bat lags his glove a bit, but his .295/.395/.470 slash in 56 games in 2019 was enough to make him one of the most productive freshman shortstops in the country. He got off to a slower start this spring, but he continued to show some promising offensive traits. Montiel has solid bat speed and bat control with an ability to use the whole field. His strikeout rates are higher than expected for a player with his offensive abilities; he seemed in my looks to be overly patient, almost passive, too often running himself into unfavorable counts. Had he gotten an opportunity to get into a rhythm before the season shut down, I expect he would’ve become a little freer and more aggressive and done more damage at the dish.
Calvi agrees the best was yet to come from Montiel this spring. “He looked very similar in our last five games to how he looked in the second half of last season,” Calvi argued. “All signs pointed to Santi turning it on and having a really solid next 30 games.” Right up until the season was shut down, Calvi continued to pencil Montiel into the leadoff spot, so there’s no reason to question his confidence that his shortstop was on the verge of a breakout.
Other Contributors
Wilson and Montiel alone make the Jags perhaps the most interesting mid-major program for draft hounds to follow next spring. Yet there’s pretty clear talent beyond that duo. Center fielder Mike Sandle and catcher Reid Powers will return for their junior seasons. They probably won’t end up in the top five rounds, but they’ve each been productive at the college level and figure to get a pro opportunity.
The pitching staff is a bit more uncertain, Calvi acknowledges, particularly in the wake of ace Drake Nightengale signing with the Mets as an undrafted free agent. But there’s a handful of quality arms on hand; Calvi mentioned each of JoJo Booker, Tyler Samaniego, Andy Arguelles and Jase Dalton as potential Friday night starters. Booker was once a well-regarded prospect out of high school, while Arguelles and Dalton aren’t too far removed from respective surgeries. There’s reason to believe one or more of those players could put everything together later in their careers. It wouldn’t be the first time that’s happened at South Alabama.