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Top 100 Prospects - Minor Graphs Edition
I don’t know about y’all, but I was stoked over our Top 100 Prospects list that dropped a little over a week ago. I got a behind the scenes look at the process our team took and came away impressed. The guys did a great job individually and the combined list made a clear picture of who deserved to be called a top 100 prospect.
That said, I wanted to bring something to the table to supplement all of their hard work. Ever since the list was finalized I’ve been scouring Minor Graphs to find charts for each of our top 100 prospects. My goal was to get a visual that displayed an improvement in a certain area or highlighted a skill that contributes to their top 100 prospect designation.
All of the following graphs are in the same order as our Top 100 list and were created through Minor Graphs.
#1 - Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
HIGHLIGHT: Over the course of his minor league career, 22.6% of Vladito’s batted balls have been line drives spread to all fields.
#2 - Eloy Jimenez
HIGHLIGHT: Over the last three years and across four levels, Eloy has only had one 30-game stretch where he was a below average hitter (wRC+ below 100).
#3 - Fernando Tatis Jr.
IMPROVEMENT: A focus on a more balanced batted ball distribution may have contributed Tatis’ early season struggles, but he maintained the change through his peak 2018 performance.
#4 - Victor Robles
IMPROVEMENT: After returning from injury, Robles continued to post the improved K rate he showed at the end of 2017.
#5 - Forrest Whitley
HIGHLIGHT: Whitley has never had a ten game stretch under 12 K/9.
#6 - Wander Franco
HIGHLIGHT: In his Rookie Ball debut, Franco’s worst strikeout rate in any 15-game sample was 13.5%.
#7 - Royce Lewis
IMPROVEMENT: Lewis’ K rate spiked in June, but he made adjustments, earned a promotion to High-A, and continued to display elite barrel control against advanced pitchers.
#8 - Jo Adell
HIGHLIGHT: Adell’s jaw dropping power is easy to identify on a spray chart. The 19-year-old’s farthest home run measured an estimated 468 feet.
#9 - Nick Senzel
HIGHLIGHT: Senzel has yet to have a 30 game stretch as a below average hitter in the minor leagues.
#10 - Alex Kirillof
HIGHLIGHT: Kirilloff understandably started slow out of the gate after missing an entire year, but starting in mid-May consistently displayed that he is a premier bat in the minor leagues. He ended the season with his 50 game high mark of 189 wRC+.
#11 - Kyle Tucker
IMPROVEMENT: Tucker’s estimated fly ball distance continued to improve in 2018 as his 30 game samples climbed above a 325 ft average for the first time.
#12 - Keston Hiura
HIGHLIGHT: A smattering of doubles to all fields shows us a glimpse of how good Hiura’s hit tool is.
#13 - Bo Bichette
HIGHLIGHT: The wRC+ was bound to come down after an outstanding 2017 breakout. Bichette had some struggles in 2018 but the 20-year-old ended the season with a 138 wRC+ in his last 50 games at AA.
#14 - Carter Kieboom
IMPROVEMENT: Kieboom showed off his power potential as his ISO sat around .250 throughout May and June.
#15 - Jesus Luzardo
HIGHLIGHT: Coming back from Tommy John surgery, Luzardo ramped up his innings per start throughout the season, peaking just above five innings per game.
#16 - Alex Reyes
HIGHLIGHT: Reyes continued to display the ability to produce dominant K% figures in his small sample of 2018 starts.
#17 - MacKenzie Gore
HIGHLIGHT: Gore has struck out 25% of batters faced or better in every career five game stretch.
#18 - Jonathan India
HIGHLIGHT: Jonathan India placed 26th in all of MiLB for estimated fly ball distance when looking at all players that hit 35 or more fly balls in 2018.
#19 - Taylor Trammell
IMPROVEMENT: Each year Trammell has dropped his ground ball rate. Power is coming.
#20 - Cristian Pache
IMPROVEMENT: Pache’s power began to materialize in High-A peaking at a .200 ISO over a 30-game stretch during the summer.
#21 - Luis Urias
HIGHLIGHT: Urias sprayed line drives all over the park in 2018.
#22 - Brent Honeywell - DNP 2018
#23 - Michael Kopech
HIGHLIGHT: Pre-injury Kopech posted a 25% K-BB% in his final 15 games of 2018.
#24 - Andres Gimenez
HIGHLIGHT: Gimenez posted an above average wRC+ during his time as 19-year-old in AA.
#25 - Brendan Rodgers
IMPROVEMENT: Despite some struggles in 2018, Rodgers displayed another year of improvement in estimated FB distance and finished with the 8th best estimated fly ball distance in 2018 (minimum 75 fly balls).
#26 - Danny Jansen
HIGHLIGHT: Jansen has been consistently productive with the bat since his 2017 breakout and that continued in his first taste of Major League ball.
#27 - Ke’Bryan Hayes
IMPROVEMENT: Hayes’ ISO jumped well above career norms in AA and remained steady until the last month of the season.
#28 - Mike Soroka
IMPROVEMENT: Prior to injury, Soroka posted a sub-career average FIP as a 20-year-old in AAA and MLB.
#29 - Touki Toussaint
IMPROVEMENT: Touki showed flashes of improving his BB% in 2018 but it rose quickly once he got his stint in the big leagues. Harnessing his control will be crucial to reaching his ceiling.
#30 - A.J. Puk - DNP 2018
#31 - Austin Riley
HIGHLIGHT: Riley’s power comes in peaks and valleys, but when he’s on he’s posting 50 game samples > .300 ISO.
#32 - Nate Pearson - 1 game played in 2018
#33 - Vidal Brujan
IMPROVEMENT: Brujan peaked after his promotion to High-A with a 30-game sample of a 238 wRC+.
#34 - Peter Alonso
HIGHLIGHT: Not just pull power, Alonso’s home runs have gone to all fields in his MiLB career.
#35 - Chris Paddack
HIGHLIGHT: Paddack’s incredible BB/9 continued after returning from Tommy John surgery in 2018.
#36 - Casey Mize - 5 games played in 2018
#37 - Yordan Alvarez
IMPROVEMENT: Alvarez saw gains in estimated fly ball distance and ended the season 39th on the estimated fly ball leaderboard (minimum 75 fly balls).
#38 - Jazz Chisholm
IMPROVEMENT: Jazz excelled towards the end of the year after his promotion to High-A with his peak 30-game sample exceeding 150 wRC+.
#39 - Luis Robert
HIGHLIGHT: Robert had an above average wRC+ during the majority of his time spent at High-A in 2018.
#40 - Alex Verdugo
HIGHLIGHT: Verdugo hasn’t struck out at a 20% rate in any 30-game sample in his MiLB career.
#41 - Jesus Sanchez
HIGHLIGHT: He’s still trying to find consistency with the bat, but in his best 30-game stretch in 2018 he posted a 185 wRC+.
#42 - Ian Anderson
IMPROVEMENT: Anderson’s BB/9 steadily improved in 2018 and was just below three BB/9 in his best 10-game stretch.
#43 - Nolan Gorman
HIGHLIGHT: Gorman’s power was on full display in his first go-round in professional ball as he maintained an ISO greater than .200 over all 30-game stretches.
#44 - Yusei Kikuchi - DNP 2018
#45 - Trevor Larnach
HIGHLIGHT: Larnach was an all around great hitter in 2018 and it’s displayed by his consistent 150 wRC+.
#46 - Yusniel Diaz
IMPROVEMENT: For the first time, Diaz displayed consistency at the plate over the course of an entire season, dipping just a touch below 100 wRC+ once in 2018.
#47 - Joey Bart
HIGHLIGHT: Bart hit 13 home runs in his first taste of MiLB pitching. When pulling back the minimum fly ball amount to 40, Bart is 16th on the estimated fly ball distance leaderboard.
#48 - Luis Garcia (WAS)
IMPROVEMENT: Garcia continually improved his estimated fly ball distance in 2018.
#49 - Nick Madrigal
HIGHLIGHT: Madrigal didn’t strike out over his first 66 PA across Rookie and A ball.
#50 - Jarred Kelenic
HIGHLIGHT: Kelenic posted a very solid estimated fly ball distance in his first taste of professional ball peaking over 305 ft in his best 30-game stretch.
#51 - Mitch Keller
HIGHLIGHT: Keller ramped up his innings pitched per game in 2018 and peaked at just over 6 IP/G before his promotion to AAA.
#52 - Bryse Wilson
IMPROVEMENT: From High-A to the bigs, Wilson struck out more batters as the season went on.
#53 - Sixto Sanchez
HIGHLIGHT: Peak Sixto has a K-BB% around 25% in a ten game stretch.
#54 - Luis Patiño
IMPROVEMENT: Patino pushed his K-BB% above 25% over his best ten game stretch of 2018.
#55 - Nico Hoerner
HIGHLIGHT: Including his time spent in the AFL, nearly 30% of Hoerner’s batted balls were line drives.
#56 - Dylan Cease
IMPROVEMENT: Cease increased his innings pitched per game for the second consecutive year and peaked at 6 IP/G in 2018.
#57 - Kyle Wright
IMPROVEMENT: Wright’s BB% steadily decreased throughout the season before earning a call to the bigs.
#58 - Gavin Lux
IMPROVEMENT: Starting in May, Lux showed the ability to post a 150 wRC+ that stuck upon his promotion to AA.
#59 - Matt Manning
HIGHLIGHT: After some control issues at A ball, Manning dropped below a 4.0 BB/9 throughout his time at High-A and AA.
#60 - Kristian Robinson
HIGHLIGHT: Though only a small sample, Robinson showed very strong estimated fly ball distances in his first taste of Rookie ball.
#61 - Brendan McKay
HIGHLIGHT: McKay maintained a FIP under 2.50 during his time at High-A in 2018.
#62 - MJ Melendez
HIGHLIGHT: Early in the season Melendez had a 30-game ISO of .359.
#63 - Francisco Mejia
IMPROVEMENT: Even though Mejia’s season at the plate had its ups and downs, he did improve his estimated fly ball distance in 2018.
#64 - Nolan Jones
HIGHLIGHT: Nolan Jones’ patience hasn’t wavered at any point during his MiLB career, hovering around the 15% mark.
#65 - Drew Waters
HIGHLIGHT: Peaks and valleys for Drew Waters, but the peak was phenomenal. He posted a 201 wRC+ during a 30-game stretch between mid-May to mid-June.
#66 - Garrett Hampson
IMPROVEMENT: Hampson sat well above his career average wRC+ for much of the first half of the season earning two promotions in 2018.
#67 - Hunter Greene
HIGHLIGHT: Before his elbow injury, Greene maintained a 10 K/9 across all of his ten game stretches at A-ball.
#68 - Keibert Ruiz
IMPROVEMENT: Ruiz decreased an already excellent K% in the second half of 2018.
#69 - Adonis Medina
IMPROVEMENT: Medina exceeded the 25% K-BB% mark over ten game stretches in the second half of 2018.
#70 - Josh James
IMPROVEMENT: James’ rise as a prospect is well represented here as his K-BB% stuck between 20-30% over all of his ten game stretches in 2018.
#71- Jon Duplantier
HIGHLIGHT: Duplantier’s batting average against consistently sat below .200 for his ten game stretches at AA in 2018.
#72 - Triston McKenzie
HIGHLIGHT: McKenzie maintained his excellent 2017 K-BB% for the first few starts of 2018 before the strikeouts fell off the table.
#73 - Deivi Garcia
HIGHLIGHT: Garcia’s best ten game stretch of K-BB% in 2018 was 33%.
#74 - Brusdar Graterol
HIGHLIGHT: During his peak in A ball, Graterol’s K rate hovered around the 30% mark.
#75 - Nate Lowe
IMPROVEMENT: After a 2017 season where Lowe’s low-point was below average, he consistently sat in the 150-200 wRC+ range across three MiLB levels in 2018.
#76 - Matthew Liberatore
HIGHLIGHT: During Liberatore’s first taste of professional ball he struck out over 30% of batters in his best five game stretch.
#77 - Sean Murphy
IMPROVEMENT: Murphy dropped his K% below 15% over his last 30 games of 2018.
#78 - Estevan Florial
IMPROVEMENT: Florial showed improved patience at the plate peaking with a 30-game stretch with over a 15% BB rate.
#79 - Cole Winn - DNP 2018
#80 - Bubba Thompson
IMPROVEMENT: Over the course of the year at A ball, Thompson steadily improved his fly ball percentage, starting around 30% and peaking at just below 40% in his best 30-game stretch.
#81 - Justus Shefflield
IMPROVEMENT: Sheffield decreased his batting average against in 2018, sticking well under his career average.
#82 - Victor Victor Mesa - DNP 2018
#83 - William Contreras
IMPROVEMENT: Contreras had a drastic jump in estimated fly ball distance that landed him 18th on the minor league leaderboard for those that hit at least 75 fly balls.
#84 - Adrian Morejon
HIGHLIGHT: Morejon peaked at a 25% K-BB% in his best five game stretch of 2018.
#85 - Alec Bohm
HIGHLIGHT: In the midst of an overall disappointing start to his professional career, Bohm had the silver lining of a sub-15% K rate.
#86 - Isaac Paredes
IMPROVEMENT: After getting promoted to AA, Paredes maintained a 10-15% walk rate, finishing the season at 12.3%.
#87 - George Valera
HIGHLIGHT: In a small sample of balls in play, Valera sprayed balls around the entire field and his lone HR was to the opposite field.
#88 - Jordyn Adams
HIGHLIGHT: Adams showed a propensity for getting singles to the opposite field in his abbreviated 2018 debut.
#89 - Ronny Mauricio
HIGHLIGHT: Mauricio maintained a sub-20% K rate throughout his 2018 season.
#90 - Brandon Lowe
IMPROVEMENT: Lowe’s estimated fly ball distance jumped for the third straight year and he maintained the improvement once he hit the majors.
#91 - Travis Swaggerty
HIGHLIGHT: In his lefty vs. lefty at bats, Swaggerty hit three home runs in just 55 PA.
#92 - Hans Crouse
HIGHLIGHT: Even though the K rate dipped in A ball, he posted at worst a 20% K rate in all of his five game stretches in his minor league career.
#93 - Cole Tucker
While the 2017 SB rate was bound to come down to earth, Tucker showed he still has the ability to swipe bags at 30+ rate.
#94 - Ryan McKenna
IMPROVEMENT: McKenna began improving his estimated fly ball distance in May and continued it throughout the rest of the season.
#95 - Mark Vientos
IMPROVEMENT: Looking at almost any of Vientos’ graphs you can see improvement, but the most pronounced is a near 3x increase in BB rate, peaking at 21.3% in his last 30 games of the year.
#96 - Luiz Gohara
IMPROVEMENT: Gohara’s year was not as expected and he was somewhat written off due to the depth of the Braves’ pitching prospects. However, at the end of the season Gohara posted a career best ten game stretch of 1.5 BB/9.
#97 - DL Hall
IMPROVEMENT: In the second half of the season Hall’s K-BB% peaked at 29% in his best five game stretch.
#98 - Griffin Canning
HIGHLIGHT: After a rocky stretch of games after his promotion to AA, Canning ended the season with a five game stretch over a 10 K/9.
#99 - Luis Garcia (PHI)
HIGHLIGHT: Garcia hit line drives to all fields for 26% of his ball in play.
#100 - Tyler Nevin
IMPROVEMENT: From the beginning to the end of the season, Nevin added 20 feet on his average estimated fly ball distance and was 12th in average fly ball distance among MiLB players that put at least 75 fly ball in play.
