A few months ago, we took a look at how a prospect’s flaws could be leveraged as a market inefficiency. In short, there are several flaws that are often overvalued and understanding what they are —and which strengths matter most —can allow teams to consistently find steals in the prospect acquisition process.
One flaw that was highlighted was a lack of power. Obviously, having an all-around hitter is preferred, particularly with how critical offense is to winning (as opposed to defense). Yet, there aren’t many players who can do it all, and for that reason, we need to prioritize the right traits.
For hitters, it would make sense for power production to be overvalued. In the construction of weighted-on-base average (wOBA), one point of on-base percentage is 1.8 times more valuable than one point of slugging percentage, as well as 1.4 times more valuable than isolated power. Meanwhile, power production is generally more volatile and subject to outside circumstances, such as the ballpark, meaning that it can be tough to bank on.
When I have a theory about prospect acquisition practices, my first action is to immediately analyze what teams value in hitters. Interestingly, one organization appears to have an extensive amount of experience in exploiting this potential market inefficiency.
The Up The Middle Factory
That would be Cleveland. Considering their low payroll, they need to leverage any potential advantage possible when it comes to acquiring prospects, and their success doing so is a major reason why they have been able to consistently win despite their financial limitations.
Currently, according to Cleveland Indians Prospect Live’s board, of the 33 position players in Cleveland’s top 53 prospects, 23 of them have been given below-average power grades. A common theme of their farm system is an overall lack of physicality. In their recent trade of superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor, for instance, they acquired multiple low-power, up-the-middle players in Andres Gimenez and Isaiah Greene. Additionally, in the 2020 MLB draft, three of their draft picks- Carson Tucker, Petey Halpin, and Milan Tolentino - are considered to be up-the-middle players who likely won’t hit for a lot of power.
If that was the only evidence I had for Cleveland adopting this approach, perhaps there wouldn’t be much to back my theory. Yet, luckily for us, this organization has what I’d call an “up-the-middle factory”:
Tyler Freeman
Brayan Rocchio
Owen Miller
Aaron Bracho
Angel Martinez
Jose Fermin
Jose Tena
Yordys Valdes
Jose Pastrano
Ernie Clement
Steven Kwan
Richard Palacios
Junior Sanquintin
All of these players are considered to be more likely to post a high on-base percentage than hit for much power. Furthermore, none of these players were particularly high draft picks or marquee international signings. Yet, all certainly have a chance to play a role on Cleveland’s major-league team in the future, which speaks to the job they have done exploring this market inefficiency to add as much depth as possible
After ranking 7th in isolated power in 2018, Cleveland dropped off to 16th in 2019, and in the short season in 2020, down to 26th. On the other hand, they have ranked in the top 10 in walk rate over the past two seasons, and have consistently been above-average when it comes to base running and defense. In other words, they are winning in between the margin in every way possible, and that all stems from how they have built their farm system.
Is this an approach that more teams should follow? Are low-power prospects the new market inefficiency? Let us dig into the numbers.
Validating Cleveland’s Strategy
For this study, let us look at players who have debuted in the majors since 2015. If Cleveland is onto something, power production from the minors to majors will not only prove to be not as stable as getting on base, but also that low-power hitters actually end up hitting for more power at the major-league level than expected.
Unfortunately, isolated power production is more stable from the minors to the majors (r^2= .483) than on-base percentage (r^2= .174), but that is because of the low correlation of batting average from one level to the next (r^2= .095). On the other hand, walk rate and strikeout rate (r^2> .6) are much more stable, and it is clear that Cleveland is targeting players who rate well in these peripheral statistics.
The more intriguing aspect to this, however, is the second part of our premise. It does appear that, in fact, low-power hitters are more likely to overachieve their expected power numbers:
Since 2015, there have been several notable players to hit for more power than anticipated:
Isiah Kiner-Falefa- Minors ISO= .075, Majors ISO= .091
Harold Castro- Minors ISO= .07, Majors ISO= .09
Kevin Newman- Minors ISO= .097, Majors ISO= .105
Manuel Margot- Minors ISO= .13, Majors ISO= .14
Oscar Mercado- Minors ISO= .134, Majors ISO= .153
Nick Ahmed- Minors ISO= .102, Majors ISO= .153
James McCann- Minors ISO= .116, Majors ISO= .145
Tim Anderson- Minors ISO= .116, Majors ISO= .163
Jorge Polanco= Minors ISO= .12, Majors ISO= .155
Brandon Drury- Minors ISO= .127, Majors ISO= .164
Carson Kelly- Minors ISO= .133, Majors ISO= .168
Jesse Winker- Minors ISO= .114, Majors ISO= .199
Willy Adames- Minors ISO= .143, Majors ISO= .164
The increases here aren’t substantial, but, remember, production is generally expected to decline when advancing to a higher level. For the most part, all of these players bring other skills to the table, and their ability to hit for power has allowed them to carve out a big-league role. McCann, in particularly, just signed a $40 million contract with the Mets, while Polanco and Anderson are key parts of their respective teams’ lineup.
In fact, minor-league players who posted an ISO of .140 or below would be expected to see their ISO multiplied by 1.08. In other words, it is clear that below-average power performers will most likely hit for more power at the next level.
Becoming a solid player with improved power production is exciting, but what about players who can become stars? There are plenty of examples of that happening:
Josh Bell- Minors ISO= .137, Majors ISO= .205
JT Realmuto- Minors ISO- .136, Majors ISO= .176
Trea Turner- Minors ISO= .148, Majors ISO= .184
Alex Verdugo- Minors ISO= .132, Majors ISO= .168
Ozzie Albies- Minors ISO= .140, Majors ISO= .194
Francisco Lindor- Minors ISO= .12, Majors ISO= .202
Bell isn’t seen as a “star”, but it is ironic that after not hitting for much power in the minors, he has now become a player whose value is stemmed from slugging at a high level. Meanwhile, the Red Sox saw enough in Verdugo for him to be the centerpiece in the Mookie Betts, and despite being seen as a contact hitter without much power, he has been above-average when it comes to slugging.
The other four, however, are the main headliners. Realmuto immediately outperformed his expected power numbers, and he’s only grown into more power over time. Now, he is likely to sign a contract for over $100 million and is seen as the best catcher in baseball. Turner has also followed suit, and with his base-running and ability to play an up-the-middle-position, his unexpected power production has been the icing on the cake for him becoming a star.
The last two players have seen enormous power production jumps, and are generally the main examples used when advocating for low-power prospects. Albies was generally given well-below-average power grades by every media outlet, but his ability to hit for power is now his offensive strength. With his superb defense, it is no wonder why he has combined for 8.4 Wins Above Replacement in his first two full seasons.
Then, there is Lindor, who Cleveland ironically just traded. Although he immediately hit for more power than he did in the minors, it was really his third season (.232 ISO) where his power took off. That is significantly more thump than you’d expect from someone listed at 5’11” and 190 pounds. Couple that with elite defense at shortstop and he is now looking at a contract worth over $30 million per year.
So, why is this the case? In general, power is more difficult to assign a grade on than we think. Generally, a player’s body frame can be overvalued in the process, as evidenced by the growth in power by Turner, Albies, and Lindor. Meanwhile, whereas plate discipline is a more innate trait, there are more direct ways to improve a player’s power- change in mechanics, increased launch angle, more strength, quick hands, etc.
Then, there is the baseball in general. Until further notice, Triple-A is the only level that is using the same baseball that the MLB uses, which is much more lively. This could definitely explain some of the recent developments here, while varying ballpark dimensions could play a role as well.
Conclusion
What should we take away from this?
It is clear that players who don’t hit for much power are generally undervalued. Cleveland has been able to build a whole factory of light-hitting up-the-middle players just based off of that, and it will be interesting to see if other teams follow suit.
Some are already doing so. The Tampa Bay Rays used the 37th overall pick on Arizona State shortstop Alika Williams, a slick-fielding shortstop with great contact skills but little projected power, and also have several players in their farm system similar to Cleveland’s prospects. The Boston Red Sox’s recent prospect acquisitions- Nick Yorke, Jeisson Rosario- follow this theme, while the Dodgers (Jacob Amaya, Keibert Ruiz) and Brewers (Garrett Mitchell, Freddy Zamora) have also acquired prospects in this mold. Meanwhile, teams like the Giants (Patrick Bailey, Will Wilson) and Orioles (Hudson Haskin) have generally been more focused on in-game batted-ball data than body frame/eye-test power readings.
I’m not saying that teams should target corner players without power. Those players have a much thinner margin for error, so banking on offensive improvement is something you don’t want. The bar is very high for them to clear offensively. However, for players who are skilled in other areas, such as getting on base or playing an up-the-middle position, limited power production is not something that should scare away teams. In fact, with proper development, the boost in power production can be what ultimately turns them into a star. Cleveland’s initial prodigy in this line of thinking may now play for the Mets, but if all goes as planned, their future team will have plenty of success stories in this area. Could it even be Andres Gimenez, the headliner of the Lindor trade? We will just have to wait and see.