For those who are unlike me and don’t watch NPB, or any International baseball tournaments, you may not know the name of Tomoyuki Sugano. However, you may want to start paying attention as the right-hander might be coming to a baseball team near you soon. With recent rumors of Sugano wishing to be posted this fall, we take a quick explanation into the NPB posting system and Sugano as a pitcher. First things first, let's understand the legal requirements for making a move from NPB over to the MLB.
The Posting System
After a series of unfortunate events for NPB that saw contract holdouts for stars to reach the MLB, most notably from stars Hideo Nomo and Alfonso Soriano back in the 1990s, the system needed a revamping. There was a need for the creation of the posting system that kept players in the NPB but also helped the teams get something in return for losing quality players.
This posting system, after some tweaks, is the way that allowed for Shohei Ohtani, Masahiro Tanaka, Ichiro Suzuki and many others to fulfill their dreams of playing in MLB. The posting system is used like this: After drafting a player in the NPB, the league/whatever team the player is signed with, will have nine years of service time before the player can file for international free agency, allowing them to talk to MLB teams. However, before that, a player can only use the posting system to reach such aspirations.
Sugano’s Situation
Up until last year, Sugano’s team, the Yomiuri Giants, had been a historically anti-post team. But that all changed when they posted pitcher Shun Yamaguchi last fall. However, thanks to some unsealed lips out of the organization, it had turned out that part of Yamaguchi's contract had a clause forcing the club's hand to post him in 2019. Since then, it has put Sugano’s future in question. Although the Giants had traditionally never posted a player, they broke the streak after a sneaky contract from Yamaguchi.
So, in theory, it can end in multiple different ways for Sugano this fall:
1. Giants post him, whether from contract clauses or through good faith after everything Sugano has done for the club.
2. Doesn’t get posted and goes into international free agency the following year.
3. Choose to become a domestic free agent staying in NPB, or finally
4. Sign an extension with the Giants.
Let's get down to the reason for the article, the talent.
The Track Record and The Stuff
Tomoyuki Sugano heading into this year was considered by many to be a top three pitcher in all of NPB, if not the best. He won multiple different awards over his career with the Giants, including a Sawamura award (NPB’s Cy Young), in 2017 and 2018. Ever since he first arrived in 2013, he has torn up NPB. Though he had a weak 2019, he’s rebounded in a big way in 2020. He is undefeated and had won eight straight for the Giants, and 10 decisions overall, with three of them being complete game shutouts. He’s also won three straight pitcher of the month awards (June - August). In three of his first 12 starts, Sugano reached double-digit strikeouts. Sugano currently owns a dominant 0.82 WHIP, 1.55 BB/9 and K/9 of 8.55.
Sugano’s stuff is strong, but the combination with his plus-plus command is the key for his success. It works to his advantage, as he doesn’t have overpowering velocity compared to the MLB level. With his fastball sitting low to mid 90s, averaging 92.5 mph, and average RPM of 2,500. He spots the pitch very well on the edge of the plate and doesn’t leave a lot for hitters to get to over the plate.
He pairs the fastball with his next go-to pitch, the slider. His slider has two different breaks, a cutter that isn’t thrown much, and his most effective breaker, a heavy breaking slider. He uses the slider on the left side of the plate, and loves throwing it as an out pitch. It’s a strong plus pitch that tends to get batters whiffing often. If the slider doesn’t work, he then goes to a splitter.
The splitter tunnels well together with the slider and gets a decent amount of vertical break. Other pitches that he uses are a two-seam that he uses away to left-handed bats, and has a decent armside run. He also has thrown a curveball in the past, but doesn’t use it as much, as he prefers to use the splitter instead. The splitter registers only a 6.3% usage rate in 2020 according to DeltaGraphs. However, when he does use the pitch, it's a big hooking pitch, thanks to an excellent spin rate generated, especially compared to the splitter. The pitch had registered a 3,079 rpm by stat-cast in the 2017 WBC. And that high-spin rate can be seen in some truly filthy pitches that would make Pitching Ninja cry out of beauty.
Examples of Slider:
Example of Splitter:
Combination of Curve/FB/Splitter:
But even with impressive stats and arsenal in NPB, there is a bit of considerable interest in how he would face against MLB level batters. Well, he’s done it before, and done extremely well. You can see this in his appearances in various different international competitions. And specifically back in 2017 where he faced off against a fairly strong USA team in the 2017 WBC for Samurai Japan. Facing a lineup featuring, Christian Yelich, Nolan Arenado, Andrew McCutchen, and many others, Sugano held them to just 1 R in 6 IP, striking out 6 with only one walk.
With the strong track-record from all the way back in 2013 to current day, it is hard to see why Sugano wouldn’t get an MLB offer. It's only a matter of when that would be, as he could reach his dream after this year. Otherwise we wouldn’t see him in the MLB until 2022. Either way, Sugano is a very interesting player to watch where he ends up, as he is one of my favorite pitchers that I’ve ever watched in NPB. His pure dominance has been nothing but enticing when thinking of how he would play in the MLB. Sure he would have his initial struggles, and profiles out to be a middle-late rotation guy, low velocity and all. But the combination of stuff and command is next level, and leaves a high upside that any MLB team should jump towards if he becomes available. Until then, Sugano remains atop the NPB as one of, if not, the best pitchers.
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Photo Cred: Nikkan Sports