The Atlanta Braves have addressed their starting pitching needs at this time by promoting their top pitching prospect, right-hander Ian Anderson.
The Player
While he was a consensus top-50 draft prospect entering the 2016 MLB draft, the Atlanta Braves surprised many by selecting Ian Anderson with the third overall selection as part of a draft of a number of impressive prep arms. He posted a 2.04 ERA in 39 2/3 innings in his draft year, and he’s never looked back.
Anderson consistently worked his way up the Atlanta Braves system step by step, spending the majority of the 2019 season at Double-A Mississippi, where he improved his K/BB and walk rate each month in Mississippi before being promoted. His final month in Double-A, he posted a 1.78 ERA with a 34/4 K/BB in 25 1/3 innings despite a .344 BABIP.
Once promoted to Triple-A Gwinnett for the final month of the season, Anderson struggled with his control and gave up five home runs in five starts after allowing eight long balls in 21 Double-A starts.
The Rankings
Our summer top 500 fantasy prospects had Ian Anderson ranked #153. Over the offseason, he was ranked as our #2 prospect in the Braves top-30 prospects list and the #42 prospect in our top-100 overall prospect list.
The Pitcher
The Atlanta Braves got a lot better looks at Ian Anderson in high school as he missed much of his senior season due to illness, injury, and weather issues in what was already a short season playing in New York state. Anderson had an elite spin curve (in a negative spin matter) and showed an impressive ability to sequence and pitch, rather than throw, as a prep arm.
He’s listed at 6’3” and 170 pounds, but that weight is definitely outdated. Anderson has grown to a solid 190-200. Anderson has long legs that he utilizes well in his delivery, getting good extension toward the plate with his drive off the mound. Anderson comes from a high 3/4 arm slot.
When he has issues with his delivery, it’s often in the slight hesitation that he has before placing his lead foot down in his delivery. If he gets too rushed in that, his torso is significantly behind, not allowing him the snap through his delivery from his midsection.
The Pitches
Fastball (55): Anderson really saw a notable improvement in his ability to generate spin in his fastball with the Atlanta Braves change in development that really was seen heavily in 2019. Anderson generates an excellent plane on his fastball with his extension and arm slot, typically making his 92-94 MPH fastball (touching 96) tough to drive.
Curveball (50): The shift in development philosophies has allowed Anderson to put to use one of the more interesting aberrations in spin rates in the minor leagues. Anderson’s hard curve works in the low-80s, but it has an incredibly low spin rate. While many view elite pitches as having high spin rates, one excellent interview given by Mike Fast, one of the Braves’ top analytical hires, stated that the goal of spin is not just high spin, but differentiating from the median. In that regard, Anderson certainly excels. His area for improvement is simply consistency of command with the pitch as even at his best, he is more control over command with the pitch.
Change Up (55): Anderson has worked extremely hard at his change to generate late arm-side wiggle on the pitch on top of mirroring his fastball very well. Before his promotion to Triple-A, Anderson was showing impressive ability to command the pitch to both sides of the plate low in the zone.
Prediction
From all accounts, Ian Anderson was not going to be recalled by the Atlanta Braves unless he was up for the duration of the 2020 season. That is a positive thing for both Anderson and Braves fans as they can get a look at a pitcher that should be a future long-term member of the rotation. The view of Anderson as an elite upside arm has really been flattened out as he developed and has refined his overall game. The floor at this point is quite high on Anderson without a likely ace upside, but the type of stuff that could allow him to be a potential staff ace for the right team. With Mike Soroka and Max Fried around, he should be able to settle into the middle of the rotation after what will likely be some initial bumps as he takes his lumps initially at every level he moves up to in his development.
Fantasy Impact
As mentioned, Ian Anderson is going to likely be a guy who is more “high floor” than “high ceiling” in his profile. However, that does not mean that he does not have the potential to be a #2 starter at his best. He should spend a number of years as a very good mid-rotation starter to a borderline frontline starter, provided health.
The raw stuff should generate strikeouts and as he’s showed at each level, he will likely struggle with location immediately. We don’t advise tossing him against New York tonight. But you can never have enough starting pitching this season so he’s worth a flier in 12-team leagues.